Working in Captivity

No one is allowed in the street. My downtown corner is deserted, there is a strange silence, the air is pure and the pidgeons are seeking where to nest. I am clearing up my contract debts, like preparing a clean autocad scheme of the flowchart of a large wet food factory. What are all those pipes? Which is connected to which machine? The factory has dozens of Gordian pipe knots like the pic. There is no one to ask because they don't answer the phone and because no one knows. I left this to the end, and now the deadline has been reached. I finish and hopefully get paid for the whole project. I know that if I focus for a few hours I can do it, but focusing is extremely hard work and I prefer to blog. Oy! J,  if you keep distracting yourself blogging, you will lose the payment. J, think of all that money!

Virus spreading through vent pipes

There was a famous case of a 50 storey residential building where people in different stages infected each other - apparently by aerosols dispersed through sewage vents.  That happened a decade ago - the SARS virus that caused 342 confirmed cases and 42 deaths in the complex. The virus was transported by air droplets escaping from dry U bends (siphons) and negative pressure in the bathrooms caused by extractor ventilators. See the interactive graph above. The interconnectedness of the sewage system not only in the same building but between nearby complexes (such as hospitals) facilitates the dispersion of pathogens. Recently the Lancet recommended (1) investigate the sources of sewage odors, (2) maintain the U bends full all the time opening the tap twice a day for 5 minutes.  

Boris Johnson in Respirator Machine

I am feeling sad for Boris and his unborn child. England is now ruled by Raab, a distant relative of mine. Our is the Orthodox branch while his parents were Bolsheviks.

This coronavirus epidemy occupies my mind. Now it seems to me obvious that the Chinese government's immediate, brutal (and successful) reaction to a  handful of atypical flu cases in Wuhan in January was caused by the knowledge that it was a biowar virus escaped from the Chinese Central Biowar Labs in Wuhan. It was an accident, for sure.

On the other hand, epidemics are nothing new, one killed a third of all Europeans and no one created it. So it is almost certain that this one is also natural. 

Hysteria in TASE

Delek Kiduchim posted 28% up. It is crazy. 

Boris Johnson Hospitalized

The corona flu infected him two weeks ago. A man full of vitality. I like him and feel sorry. 

Several of the people around Johnson have also tested positive. His pregnant partner, Carrie Symonds, has also experienced Covid-19 symptoms, and said that she is "on the mend."

Corollarium

Source.  Doctors are already prescribing hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin to potentially help severely ill COVID-19 patients. Matter of fact, the FDA has already approved hydroxychloroquine for emergency use for these patients. The reason why this drug is good for COVID-19 is because it provides the ability to inhibit immune response. That's important, because COVID-19 causes acute respiratory distress syndrome or ARDS, because a patient's immune response is severe against the lungs. That causes the air sacs or alveolus of the lungs to flood with fluid and it becomes hard for oxygen to be delivered to red blood cells. Another belief is that hydroxychloroquine also inhibits viral replication as well. Azithromycin is believed to help with pneumonia.

As far as potential treatments in development, I believe that Gilead's remdesivir may potentially offer some therapeutic benefit. That's because this drug is a nucleotide analog which blocks a particular enzyme that is required for viral replication. Hydroxychloroquine has already been approved by the FDA for emergency use. Remdesivir may also get the greenlight for use, should several studies to be reported in the coming weeks turn out with positive data. As far as vaccines go, it will be roughly 12 to 18 months. That's because it will take time to randomize several hundred patients and then test safety and efficacy. Especially, if you want to make sure that there are no long-term negative side effects. Plus, you have to be able to produce millions of doses, which may take some time to ramp up. As far as profitability may go, it is likely that a good amount of revenue will be made, but that depends where it is priced at. In addition, it depends on the seasonality of this virus also.

Corollarium: We have a maximum of six month till something is found. The only problem I see is that the companies will emerge with much debt, that may lead to inflation. Dollar inflation. 

Building character

Seeking Alpha  in a note titled "The worst is to come" points out the silver lining  of coronavirus pandemic: The hardship that we are experiencing right now is tragic, but it fosters resilience and builds character.  

At my Mathusalemic age, do I need to build character? I prefer to build wealth, to increase the worth of my portfolio.

"Also, we will soon know a lot more than we do now. Tthe true negative impact on the economy and the financial health of corporations is unimaginable right now. And as we progress through the month of April, the economic reports and corporate earnings announcement are going to undoubtedly be absolutely horrendous."

Good. Reality is now returning to global capital markets. Much character building.  Let's think of a plan.