Claude: Based on trends, we can estimate when the birth numbers might equalize:
If Poland continues its approximately 11% annual decline in births (from ~272,000 in 2023), and Israel maintains relatively stable birth numbers around 180,000 (with slight variations), the crossover point would be reached in approximately 4-5 years (around 2029-2030).
By that time:
- Poland's births would be around: 272,000 × (0.89)^5 ≈ 160,000
- Israel's births would likely remain around 180,000 or grow slightly
For this old Eastern European Jew, it is unimaginable that Israel will have more births than Poland. A few years ago, a German said that, according to the trend current then, Guatemala would soon be more populous than Germany, which was impossible and unimaginable for him. As things are now, that is still far away.
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