The Gaza War didn't hurt us much

 

After the terrible shock of the massacre of Re'em Festival, Israel declared war on HAMAS and expected a concerted attack by its enemies. Some 400,00 reserves were mobilized and re-trained during a month while Gaza was being destroyed from the air. Foreign countries sent emergency rescue planes to evacuate their citizens from Israel. Even Argentina sent a Boeing. People, alarmed, bought dollars and its price jumped to 4 sheqel per US dollar. 

Almost two months later, we are negotiating with HAMAS, the expected surprise attack by Iran did not happen (thanks to America that sent one of its battle groups to the area), Western governments strongly supported Israel in its hour of need, the economy is recovering fast and the dollar (see graph) is below its pre-war level. Muslim protests all over the world frightened European people,strenghtening the Right. The "extreme" right won the elections in Holland. 

Maybe the war did not damage us too much.

Civilization's Disease

 South Korea's fertility rate has dropped to a record-low 0.70 in the second quarter of 2023, according to the latest government report, in yet another stark indicator of the deepening demographic crisis in a nation already grappling with the world's lowest birth rate.According to the monthly demographic and census report released on Wednesday by Statistics Korea, the country's statistics body, there were 56,087 newborn babies in the second quarter, a 6.8 percent drop from the same period last year. The count represents the lowest since 2009 and marks 91 months of consecutive decline in births.The country's population has been decreasing for 43 consecutive months, according to the report. In June alone, the number of newborns totaled 18,615, while recorded deaths stood higher at 26,820.

Ultimatum from America's Best & Brightest

         From the WSJ:   As Israel began exchanging Palestinian prisoners for Israeli moms and children, Harvard was dealing with its own ultimatum.

A week ago pro-Palestinian students gave university President Claudine Gay until Monday to respond to three demands. They were: that Harvard divest from any investments in “illegal settlements in Palestine”; that the university reinstate a proctor suspended for taking part in a mob that surrounded and harassed a Jewish student; and—of course—a promise from Harvard that “pro-Palestinian students and workers engaging in non-violent protest” would face no disciplinary action.

There you have it. The ethos of our modern best and brightest in a nutshell: We are taking a brave stand—but we demand that we pay no price for it.

Why I am losing on Potash?

 Why? I cannot think a reason. Brasilian farmers were not long ago paying 1200 dollar per ton, but the israeli potash company ICL is getting paid 250 by the Indians. Brazil imports 98% of its potash. The use has increased from 10 kg/ha. to over 100 kg/ha. with the accompanying increase in agricultural yields per hectare. Canada is investing billions in the development of its Jensen mine, the Australians are not much behind. The demand is begging for fertilizer because of the Ucraine war. 

 And now we have the Teimanim menacing our maritime  traffic on the Red Sea from Eilat to Mombay. The shares of ICL have sunk into Earth's mantle, devoured by its boiling iron/nickel inner core.

Major players in the Potash market include The Mosaic Company, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, K+S AG, Israel Chemicals, and Uralkali. The global potash market will grow from $22.04 billion in 2022 to $23.03 billion in 2023 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the chances of global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, at least in the short term. The war between these two countries has led to economic sanctions on multiple countries, a surge in commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions, causing inflation across goods and services and affecting many markets across the globe. The potash market is expected to grow from $30.61 billion in 2027 at a CAGR of 7.4%.

On another note, ICL broke ground yesterday on their $400mm LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) plant in St Louis. When both phases are operational by 2025 they will produce 30,000 metric tons of LFP annually. Current China price for a metric ton of LFP is 83,000 yuan, or $11,500/mt.

Why I am losing on Potash?

We are too soft

 The HAMAS criminals have kidnapped two hundred Israelis and are demanding trade in for HAMAS prisioners and to stop the war. We are negotiating and apparently we are going to give them a respite and free a lot of terrorists. I think we are making a big mistake, that we are too soft and they are playing on our sentimental weak points. To eliminate the HAMAS once for all we have to play hardball: for example, to put 400 prisioners and others in front of a "paredon" and start counting down. Every hour one would be executed till they called Uncle. We should never negotiate with criminals. 

There was a story in Argentina. A criminal gang kidnapped a rich man's mother in law and demanded a million dollars. The man did not answer. After some time, the gand sent a note that they felt  sorry for his suffering and would let go the dear old woman for only 500,000 dollars. He did not answer. The next note said that they this lovely old woman told them how much close they were and convinced them to accept a symbolic amount of only ten thousand. Silence. Nothing. No answer. The last note: "Please, have pity on us, come and take back this insufferable old hag! Take her and 10,000 dollars!" 

Bayer falling 30%

Bayer said it is halting a trial for asundexian, an experimental cardiovascular drug. Bayer’s Frankfurt-listed shares (XE:BAYN) fell about 30%. Bayer is a hundred and fifty years old German giant pharma company, tremendously stable, conservatively managed and reliable. Losing a third of its worth in a day or two is most amazing. It means that one third of its worth was the hope for the success of an experfimental drug. I have blind faith in German quality. Just bought German car. 

Rich Man's Portfolio

Warren Buffett’s portfolio:

Apple: $156.8b (50%)

Bank of America: $28.3b (9%)

American Express: $22.6b (7.2%)

Coca-Cola: $22.4b (7.1%) Chevron: $18.6b (5.9%) Occidental: $14.5b (4.6%) Kraft Heinz: $11b (3.5%) Moody’s: $7.8b (2.5%) Others: $31b (10%)

Nekome!

Nothing we can do to them compares with what they did to us.  

We are in trouble

 Dr Eynat Wilf spoke in the Capitol Hill and she explained carefully, point by point, why we are in terrible trouble. She is a leader of the left-wing Labour Party. She teaches in the Reichman University in Tel Aviv. 

Next to my table in TAHAL "worked" an elderly man called Wilf. Curious as I am, one day sat before him and asked what he was doing. He was working on a large genealogy tree, up to the Oppenheimer founder in Switzerland three centuries ago. TAHAL was paradise.  

Gaza WWTP surrounded

 Observing the photo it is clear that the plant is not working, there are no aerators, and the basins are anaerobic (covered with green algae). Under the plant surely there are no tunnels. 

Saved by Reality

 
In Japan and many other countries, the towns and villages are disappearing like magic. In the US nearly half of women under the age of 45 are childless. 

Israel, only two months ago, was well advanced on the same direction. There were large demonstrations with homosexual and Palestine flags, personal enjoyment was being taught in State schools, deeply religious people were attacked on the street, elite fighter pilots and the intelligence services were refusing to serve, there was an active movement to encourage desertion. Barack already saw civil war and bodies floating in the Yarkon river. In kibbutz Beeri there was an informal school to teach the techniques of civil disobedience and revolt.  

The unexpected contact with reality stopped all these. Pilots are bombing refugee camps full of children and women, young people volunteer to the army, and Beeri - the beautiful garden community of peace and love - is no more.

HAMAS weapons depot

 Zahal published a few shorts from Gaza. The destruction is phenomenal. They did not start to enter the tunnels to kill the leaders or liberate the captives. The Economist describes the multiple ways to do that safely. Expansive polyurethane foam can be injected into the inlets, just as we do in construction. They will be trapped like rats. 

The documentary intends to show that the depot was adjacent to a classroom, but more shocking (for me) is the disorder and lack of professionalism. They are irregulars and Juan Domingo Peron taught (as professor at the Argentine Military School), they never can stand up to a regular army. Argentine military are order fanatics. 

Space War

 
Israel downing Houthi missile is first instance of space warfare


The Arrow system was developed by Israel Aerospace Industries in conjunction with the Israeli and US  defense complex.

The Yemenites are attacking us from space. With long range missiles. The missile was destroyed above the atmosphere, in space. It seems science fiction. We are being pushed to the very frontline of modern warfare.

It is interesting to mention that in the ranking of GNP per capita, Yemen is one of the poorest countries of the planet, lower than many African countries. How is that they are able to wage space war? Iran is using Yemen's territory to attack us.

Don't feed the animals

I have written before about the imbecility of donating money to universities and other institutions in the USA that discriminate against Jews and educate the students that Jews are the cause of society's problems. Now the issue became acute and Jewish students are being physically attacked on the campus. One donor (50 million dollars) to the U of Pennsylvania (pic) has at last woken up.

 

Biblical Plagues

 

The first two plagues in the Bible were blood red water pollution and frogs. Now the water is pure and there are no frogs (only mosquitos) but I have my own plagues. This month-long war is depressing me, and yesterday I bought a Skoda car and negotiated the price but, in the end, I blindly signed a higher price. A case of bait-and-switch on an old man and I don't know what to do. Another plague is a severe health issue that fell on a daughter.  Yet another is fighting with her ex - with lawyers. God help.

Tragic Irony

 “One of the tragic ironies of this is the vast majority of the casualties were kibbutzim and the people at this outdoor concert. And people who live in kibbutzim and people who go to raves tend to be the more left-wing, secular Israelis who oppose Netanyahu. Who oppose the occupation, who oppose the seizure of Gaza. Not the right wing ultra-religious nationalist types. I have a good friend who, just a few months ago we were doing training in nonviolent civil resistance to war and occupation, for activists. She lived in kibbutz Kissufim, and she is missing and likely dead or kidnapped. Kerem Shalom, which is probably the most left-wing kibbutz in Israel, they’ve been involved in nonviolent direct action against the occupation. They were overrun, massacres there …”

"Training in nonviolent civil resistance..." in kibbutz Kissufim (pic).  On October 7th., eight kibbutz civilians and six Thai laborers died, and additionally at least four individuals were abducted and taken to Gaza. 

Dead Man Walking

 

Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, says that Israel will kill HAMAS terror leader Yahya Sinwar (on the pic). 

 

The failure of technology

 

Pic.: The border wall (and patrol road and electronic fence) we built to protect ourselves from Hamas. Highest technology available, with sensors and watchtowers, and a floating zeppelin to observe from above. It was a "smart border" built at a cost of billion dollars. 

It totally failed. There is no substitute for living human soldiers.