Saturday, March 28, 2020

The Ruins of Syria

I live in the center of a town of 100,000 and am used to continuous noise. Now, suddenly, everything is silent and quiet. The pidgeons are sunbathing in the middle of the street and courting each other. I hear every movement of the upstairs Russian couple and the shouts of the first floor Persian tribe.

Bored, look up what the CIA thinks of Syria. It seems tht Syria is ruined, the GNP is 2900 dollar per capita, the bare survival. I used to think of Syria as an Arab country, but CIA says is only ~50% Arab, the rest Alawite ~15%, Kurd ~10%, Levantine ~10%, other ~15% (includes Druze, Ismaili, Imami, Nusairi, Assyrian, Turkoman, Armenian). The Alawites are not Arab? I have never heard of the ethnic group of Levantines? Always thought of Syria as a homogeneous Arab country, but now the CIA is describing it as diverse. May be the plan is to break up the Middle East into small ethnic countries, like Europe after WWII. In Europe it worked and there is peace.

The population is growing at the rate of 4.25% NA (2020 est.), half of it immigrants. Immigrants to dirt poor Syria, with 40% unemployment? GNP is $24.6 billion (2014 est.) - about 5% of Israel. Millions are trying to escape from Syria. It all started with a draught and the Sunni rebellion against the Alawi dictatorship and in less that three years the conflict destroyed the country. Who could imagine it?

P.S.: Researching the Levantine ethnic group, apparently it is mixed European population that rejects the Arab identity and wants to be classed with Europeans, just as they were in the past. Is its renaissance a CIA initiative? May be the idea is to weaken the Arab identity and de-Arabize the region? Could be.  It also could be a natural development, as the peoples living here are realizing the total failure of Arab states. I do not know. 

Friday, March 27, 2020

In Argentina they are shooting

Clarin, Argentina's main newpaper, reports that soldiers are shooting people walking in the street against the order to stay at home. They say it was with rubber munitions. Que barbaros!

Lesson in Speculation

The market is an idiot. If I needed a demonstration, it is this: Trading in Zoom Technologies Inc. (ticker: ZOOM) was suspended by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday through April 8 after the stock climbed in recent weeks amid confusion with Zoom Video Communications Inc. (ticker: ZM), the popular virtual-meeting company.

The similar names had caused confusion, leading some investors to purchase shares in the wrong company. Shares of the now-halted Zoom Technologies tripled over the past five weeks, while Zoom Video rose only 30% during the same period.

So the mindless speculators bought the wrong stock, TRIPLING it price, while the stock they intended rose ONLY 30%. I shall never forget this palpable lesson that the market is stupid and always wrong. 

Boris Johnson Infected

I feel personally affected by the news. I like Boris Johnson and the English in general. His partner is expecting a baby. Bad. 

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

The Chief Rabbi of Beijing

Arutz Sheva interviewed Rabbi Shimon Freundlich, Chief Rabbi of Beijing, on the current situation in the city as China starts to ease up on its regulations, opening factories and getting people back to work.

“The factories are back in operation and exporting their products, and other countries are already receiving goods from China,” he says. “Things are getting back to normal, although there are still Chinese in quarantine – those who have recently returned from abroad.”

Rabbi Freundlich stresses that the Chinese government is only able to gradually ease back on the regulations after two months of shutdown due to the strict adherence of the population to the guidelines. “People obeyed the guidelines. We only left the house once a day or once every two days, and only for things that we really needed. I can tell you that out of the 13 Chabad Houses, not one of them was directly impacted by the virus. Not only that, but we didn’t even know anyone who knew people who had contracted the virus, because we did exactly what the government and the doctors said, and shut down all the places where large numbers of people congregate. That’s what really made a difference here.

“People are still wearing masks, of course,” he added, “but we can take walks in the park and the shops are open. Outside of the big cities, some of the schools are opening already,” he noted.

We asked Rabbi Freundlich if the warmer spring weather is partially responsible for the improved situation. “Well, to an extent, the virus is like a food item that can be preserved in the refrigerator but spoils if left out. When a virus is in cooler surroundings, it finds it easier to take hold, and when it’s warmer, it’s harder for it to survive outside a human host. Similarly, if someone coughs or sneezes when the weather’s cold, the virus can remain suspended in the air for up to sixty seconds. When it’s warmer, it falls to the ground much more quickly. But that doesn’t mean that the danger’s over,” he warns. “It’s still around, and we still have to be careful.”

We asked Rabbi Freundlich what lessons we could derive from the crisis the entire world finds itself in, and he doesn’t hesitate in his reply. “It’s all about unity,” he says. “There have only been a few times in the history of the world that we saw a sense of unity, of us all being together in this, like people are feeling now. There was Matan Torah, the time of the giving of the Torah, when all the Jewish people were ‘ke’ish echad u’vlev echad – as one person, with one heart.’ A thousand years later, at the time of the Purim miracle, the Jewish people once again united when Haman wanted to kill every single Jew. And now we’re in a situation in which people are really internalizing that humans are limited in their capabilities, and that we have to recognize that there’s a greater Power than us.”

He adds that, “The Lubavitcher Rebbe said that the first quarantine in history was when G-d told Noah to ‘go into the ark.’ The Hebrew word for ‘ark’ is ‘teivah’ which also translates as ‘word.’ The Baal Shem Tov explains that we can also understand this as meaning, ‘go into the word,’ that is, get into your prayers, your Torah learning – and then you’ll see good things happening.

“And then, after the flood, G-d told Noah, ‘Leave the ark,’ meaning that we should take the Torah we learned and use it to build a whole new world. In my Chabad House there are Jews from all over. Some of them are more religious, some less. Often people don’t want to have anything to do with others who don’t share their views, but now it’s different. Everyone’s stuck in his own ‘teivah’ and it’s an opportunity to reach out, to pick up the phone and call a neighbor, to express caring and concern. If we do that, then when we are finally able to leave our own ‘Noah’s ark,’ we’ll have built a new and better world, because there’s no more powerful weapon against hatred and evil than the unity of the Jewish People.”


We asked Rabbi Freundlich if he thinks that the Chinese themselves have a greater feeling of solidarity due to the events of the past few months. “Definitely. I’ve been living here for 19 years, and I’ve seen a huge difference in the last two months. Even though China is a Communist state and they’re atheists, the Chinese have seen that unity is so important. They’ve realized that they need to be there for each other, and they are doing so in exemplary ways, going out of their way to help people they don’t even know.”

Rabbi Freundlich notes that on Wednesday, there will be a global prayer linking Jews all over the world, and says, “There is nothing greater than ahavat Yisrael, love of one’s fellow Jew. This is what brought us national redemption in the past and it will bring it again in the future.”

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Argentina closes Synagogues

The Achdut Jewish community published on Facebook the hours when its mikwa (ritual bath) was open. The police arrived and arrested the naked bathers and assistants.

In Argentina, Dura Lex Sed Lex. 

Saturday, March 21, 2020

The Charter for the Jews of Prussia (1750)

I have no new books so I am re-reading those in the bottom of the book-case. "We, Frederick, by God's Grace, etc. etc. make known and order to be make known..." This Charter is a very long and detailed bureaucratic document regularizing the situation of the Jews in the Kingdom of Prussia, with a very long foreword emphatizing Frederick's magnamity and his desire to protect existing guilds and trades from Jewish competition. Every economic activity already taken by the natives is forbidden for the Jews; on the other hand, Frederick carefully details the areas open for the Jews: they can trade in money exchange and pledges, buying and selling of houses, trade in imported textiles, silk goods, wool goods, deal in undressed and unfinished pelts (but not in finished furrier wares), and the list goes on for two pages. Jewish activity in those fields is encouraged and protected by the State.

Frederick was an enlightened king trying to moderize its country. I dont find antisemitism in this document (except  universal complaints against Jewish commercial practices, which may have something in them) but a strong desire to avoid direct competition and economic conflict with the native population. As a Jew analysing this formal document two hundred seventy years after,  I notice fear of the Jews and the desire to push their activities to marginal, risky areas such as finance and foreign trade. Prussian Jews were denied the secure existence of traditional trades like farmers, bakers, butchers, taylors, furriers, watchmakers, etc. all of them protected against competition by powerful guilds, Jews were forced to extremely difficult and risky activities. Like the elder Rothschild in Frankfurt, trying to feed his large family selling old coins to rich collectors.   

Alberto tells the IMF to get lost

Alberto Fernandez, the Peronist President of Argentina, is phoning to Giorgieva of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) that Argentina will not repay the loan received last year. IMF's former Chief Lagarde loaned Argentina half of IMF's capital to help Macri win the elections (he lost). It's not small change, we are talking about a hundred billion dollars. Alberto also told her that no pandemic will affect Argentina. I can't say this was unexpected.


Friday, March 20, 2020

People is breaking down

Hungarians debating the pandemic.
Blogger Greg Cochran criticizes John Iannidis paper on the pandemic, suspecting he is psychotic. I read the offending paper and what I found was a simple reading comprehension issue, which may happen even in Stanford U. I visited Hungarian sites to see how they manage, and found them busy blaming each other for the disease (pic). Hope to keep my sanity in the coming days.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Preparing for Lockdown

The radio announced that the Army will be assisting the police to enforce the stay-in-home quarantine. The Secret Service is already monitoring the movements of individuals suspected of being infected. Israel has closed hermetically its borders. Since factories and business have been ordered to close, half a million persons have lost their jobs and are drawing social security. Unemployment jumped to 16%. The Bank of Israel has started to spend its foreign currency reserves. Israel suspended the patents of several antiviral drugs and will start to use generic copies. We want to avoid what is going on in Lombardy, and following the successful Wuhan model. BTW, in Wuhan there is no more coronavirus. All those Chinese and foreigners who made desperate efforts to be rescued from Wuhan and move to supposedly safe diseasefree countries like Italy, France, Canada, USA - made a mistake. The safest place was and is Wuhan. I have much work pending, but cannot focus on my projects and have barely worked all the week. Very bad. 

The Chief Rabbi Allows the Use of Phones during the Sabbat

Rabbi Yosef also ruled that anyone who has been tested for coronavirus and is awaiting the results should leave his cell phone switched on during Shabbat, and should answer it with a shinui [in a different manner from during the rest of the week] in order to be updated on his status, in case he needs to go into quarantine. 

The logic of his ruling is clear, but once we start giving allowances to special cases, what remains? Anyway, he is not my rabbi. I am a Hungarian Jew. 

Israel: A Day with No New Cases

The short wave radio, a gift of the Bank for taking a loan, is speaking all the time about the political impasse in Israel, no music or news about the corona. According the WHO situation report, yesterday there were no new cases in Israel, but that is no news. Looks like Netaniyahu will be ruling four years more. My worry is the stock exchange, from a 20% profit I am now 20% BELOW the purchasing price of the portfolio. I cannot think clearly and focus, so am doing nothing. 

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Israel: Quarantine and Without Government

The Ministry of Health has ordered total closure of the population, no one in the streets, shops closed, university and ministries working through the internet. This morning I had my trial lecture, it takes much more time than a frontal exposition, but at least we are paid. My daughter is on half salary and his husband was not sent home on the condition he works for three, that is, does the jobs of two others who were sacked. For me, this coronavirus situation means no change because I use to work from home office. And I have many projects going. The Clients are calling to alert me that the cheques are NOT in the post.

On the top of this emergency, the head of the Blue and White party is trying to form a coalition, but three of his party have abandoned him for trying to ally to the extremist Arab party Balad, and Netaniyahu et al. are not talking to him. The Chairman of the Parliament Yuly Edelstein (pic) has dissolved the committees and the bureaucracy is working without political direction or supervision. Edelstein is a Russian half-Jew and a fanatic right wing Zionist. The police is enforcing the quarantine and the Secret Service was ordered to follow suspected infected persons. Privacy laws have been suspended.

As always, some people are profiting in the chaos. The Bourse has crashed but my supermarket client is prospering. My son in law works in something related to foreign trade logistics: since many airlines are not flying, prices are higher. But this situation is not sustainable, the Bank of Israel is selling reserves.



Tuesday, March 17, 2020

China does Public Relations

China is pulling out a PR victory from the mouth of the Wuhan defeat. The narrative a month ago was that the Government repressive inaction let the epidemic to develop in Wuhan, killing thousands. Now China presents itself the only place where decisive government actions defeated the virus, helping sick Italy, an example to the world. I tend to agree with the Chinese narrative, with the provision that no one really knows what is happening. 

Monday, March 16, 2020

CoVid is Changing My Life

The University suspended classes and from now, we have to teach from home. I wrote them that I was not equipped for the change, my PC has no camera nor microphone (I learnt that from Zuckerberg). They answered that they will pay for the multimedia equipment and they gave me one week to be ready with the equipment and the material. Thus, I have no excuse. This bloody epidemic is forcing me to learn new things, which is the motto of this blog. La letra con sangre entra, that is, one learns with blood and effort, while in truth I hoped to pass the time till my end reading classics with a glass of red wine on the table.

Que esperanza! No chance! Now I have to prepare lectures on video and learn to operate the teaching application. Worse, the bourse is volatile and people is throwing away good shares that I can pick up. This panic will not last! People get used to everything and will recover their courage and value good shares for they are worth. I need to sober up and focus!

Sunday, March 15, 2020

England replays the Blitz

England went into a Blitz mood. "Every single person in this country is going to be affected" 
Over-70s - and younger people with certain health conditions - will need to remain at home and have groceries and vital medication delivered, the health secretary said. 
All the UK deaths from the virus so far have been among people aged over 60 or with underlying health conditions.
He said car manufacturers, weapon makers and army suppliers would be asked to change their production lines to make ventilators for use in hospitals treating coronavirus - which can cause severe breathing problems.

Friday, March 13, 2020

Check Point in Jerusalem, Today

From the Palestine Post aka Jerusalem Post. 

We are Famous

The Economist has a half page note dated in Kfar Sava about a house meeting in a penthouse. This town always votes for the left and it may be the most liberal in Israel. The speaker was the leader of the Arab United List, and he was received politely, which the Anglo journalist present interpreted as the Jews are joining Arab parties. I blindly believe everything the British press writes, except when they report about things I happen to know personally. I never imagined that the neighbor's house party is important to figure in The Economist. Their home made cakes are vomitable.

I am spending this rainy day writing the Bill of Quantities of the Munier project. No rocket science but requires much concentration. Not a pleasure.  

Thursday, March 12, 2020

The Unexpurgated Case Against Woman Suffrage

The news are so bad that I shall distract myself with writing about the most prominent discoverer of vaccines, A. Wright (pic). In those Victorian times, men were not afraid of professional and social defenestration if they expressed their ideas, so there was free discussion of racial and gender issues, something inimaginable in our advanced times. Their ideas have been forgotten, repressed, criminalized.

Almroth Wright (pic) discussed, in a 1919 letter to The Times, why women should not be given the vote. He attributes the furious feminism to the million excess women in post WWI Britain. This excess was consequence, I think, of the massacre of the recent war, but Wright attributes it to the emigration of men to the colonies. Nothing has changed, today we also have a large excess of single women who are unable to form families. The cause, in Israel at least, is the draconic legislation against men that converts marriage into a lifelong servitude. Aspiring starlets that opened their legs hoping to get into the movies, and hating themselves for it, sent Harvey Weinstein - twenty years later - to jail.  

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Purim in Shushan


The news in the bourse and the coronavirus front are very bad. I just watched on twitter a Persian on the paviment dragging himself toward  the hospital entrance - which was closed and full. No one came to his help. It is still cold in Iran.

So let's celebrate Purim and the Jews salvation from the evil Ahashwerosh in Shushan, with Shkeddy, the pink unicorn!

Be well!

Harsh developments

The political scene of Israel is showing stress never seen before. The left coalition is talking to Muslim extremist parties like Balad, which is causing a revolt in its right wing. Already three representatives have deserted. On the right side, Netaniyahu is preparing the fourth election in a year, and even if he becomes Prime Minister, the crazy Judiciary is moving ahead with three trials against him. We may have a situation where the ruling Prime Minister is fighting a trial, causing the self-destruction of the legal structure of Israel.

Israel is closed because many of the incoming travellers carry the virus. The police has been activated to implement the quarantine. Soon a hundred thousand persons may be in closure - and not in their homes. Soon people will be arrested for coughing in public.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

China is the key

The hit to the oil price was no surprise as China is the largest energy consumer in the world. A similar fate for other commodities like copper & iron ore or services (like hospitality,education in the USA). On the supply side too their are issues. China produces around 1 million TV's a month. Last month due to the shutdown it was only 100,000. The markets are pricing in the risks associated with the pandemic.

When will China recover?

Monday, March 9, 2020

Are shares cheap enough?

Collectors of shares like me should exploit the corona-panic and continue buying. After the production of a vaccine everything will return to normal and shares will be sold for they are worth. I have to take courage and keep buying.  I do not believe that the end is near and anyway, my personal end cannot be very far. Airlines will be very cheap, they will return to their prices after the panic. Hotels and tourism sector. People will not give up living. Tomorrow!

Life goes on (or not)

Yesterday I was the only teacher in the exam, the others did not show up. The students - one step before graduating as civil engineers - displayed shocking ignorance. The university employs elderly "celadores" (guardians?) to prevent copying, they too were surprised by the elementary level of the questions. It depressed me and left after two hours.

I am not interested in politics, but the situation here is worrying. The Jewish electorate is divided equally and the 400,000 Israeli Arab voters are kingmakers. Their program is to dismantle Israel. In case of war, their loyalty is in no doubt: they are enemy. And for the first time they will be an important part of the govening coalition.

Went down to the corner shop for eggs. The woman before me was buying foodstuff enough for a month, she said they have to stay at home. Corona virus! Instinctively touched my nose, then ran home to wash my hands for a minute.  

Sunday, March 8, 2020

Muddy Waters

Saudi Arabia drops the price of oil to keep market share and eliminate shale and other competitiors. It will inhibit phasing out motor cars. It will kill wind and sun generation. At $30 a barrel, Venezuela and Iran’s economies collapse. My Israeli oil and gas shares already lost half of their worth. 

On the other hand, cheap oil stimulates world economy. Add costless credit and prosperity may be ahead. Spring is near and with it the demise of the flu epidemy. If I were less tired and depressed, I would start collecting shares.

All The Best. 

Saturday, March 7, 2020

It is starting to bite

There is less traffic in the streets because people has heard that a pestilency is out there. I have been closed in my office working all day on the Munier project, that now has been completed. It is a cake factory and the owners are stressed because their other business - an events hall - is dead, no one is reserving dates for fiestas. I am starting to work on two new gym projects. Tomorrow, Sunday, I have to supervise two exams in Ariel University. The semester starts the 17th.  Life goes on.

Friday, March 6, 2020

High emotions in Israel

MK Dichter: This is going to be a tragedy. Deputy Defense Minister warns against a government supported by the Joint List party. Dichter is former head of the Mossad, the Organization for Special Activities.

"And this is being committed by three Chiefs of Staff, two Hausers and Hendels, and one Ivette Liberman. People whose hatred of Netanyahu drove them insane and they're willing to sell the State of Israel to its enemies just to get the Prime Minister out of his chair. It's sad, shameful, and dangerous." Bezalel Smotrich is a national/religious leader.

The head of the opposition, the one who is planning to form a coalition government with Arab anti-Jewish parties because his blind hate of Netaniyahu, Benny Gantz, said that "a political assesination is around the corner".

Pic.: The United Arab List, formed by three anti-Jewish fractions. The Arab (Palestinian) population of Israel (25% of the total) voted uniformly for the Arab List. Politically, they are a solid undigested  ethnic block of the conquered native population. This is a typical sitution of a "diverse" society - each ethnic votes for his own candidate. 

Israel Closed

תמונהEl Al suspended flights to the USA. The travel and tourism industries are paralyzed.  I am following the corona disease on the net, but I am still unconvinced that the world is not over-reacting. It seems to me a common cold like we have every winter. The Chinese government brutal reaction has alarmed the whole world, if they are taking such extreme measures then humanity must be facing something terrible. Maybe the Chinese leadership wanted to be seen this time as honest and transparent, not as like with the SARS epidemy. The worst is the bourse's volatility, I wonder if it is a good time to buy on the cheap. My people went hysteric when I suggested it. I cannot even consult with a god, since the mosques are closed (pic), the Chief Rabbi forbid kissing mezuzot and even the Pope is sick. Well, I have to work and finish this Munier project. 

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Schweizerische Kreditanstalt in Argentina

Before the era or Peron, there was a short time when Argentina established a committee to investigate Nazi affairs in Argentina. Now a list of money transfers from the Swiss Bank (today called Credit Suisse) to known Nazis in Argentina was discovered, and it is probable that much of it is money extracted (*) from Jews under the Nazi regime. The pedantic German recordkeeping is turning on the criminals - eighty years after.

(*) Not figuratively. Gold dentures. 

Celebrating Purim and the end of Coronavirus!

Winter has officially ended in Kever Benjamin Village. Temperature over 27 degrees Celsius. Heat kills all flu virus, so bye bye coronavirus! 

Pigs and Dogs Puzzle

Richard Feynman and his wife were having a holiday in Guatemala. The wife joined a tour and he was bored in the hotel room. He wondered about the strange figures in the tourist magazine. The Mayan numbering system appeared to be based on the number nine, while the Mayan calendar was still a mystery. Feynman recognized its multi-cyclical nature based on cycles of 240 and 365 days and that very afternoon solved the riddle. Now that I have told you the key, you can easily verify it on the Mexican calendar stone (at the right). Fortunately, still there are ancient riddles waiting to be solved, and here is one.

Three thousand years ago the people in the Middle East  had a board game, the first in the world. Recently a complete set of figures was unearthed (see pic) but the board could not be found. The game set consists of colored stones, something must be related to the color in the game. The two main animal figures are pigs and dogs. Considering the shapes and numbers of the stones, it appears that the game is based on number four. 
Anybody spending a lazy afternoon in a hotel room? Could you retro-engineer this game? 

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Israel escaped by a hair breadth

The leftist media waged a dirty campaign against Netaniyahu to the point that I was fearing that he may not win this elections. In that case, Israel would have spent another year without a government  flying on autopilot, unable to take decisions. Fortunately, the masses dismissed all leftwing propaganda and the Likud party won a large victory. The opposition party, Blue and White, formed ad hoc by three different fractions, will now disintegrate and disappear as if never existed. Its leader, Gantz, a former general, resulted no public speaker, and impressed me (and others) as a weak personality. So we will have again an able prime minister. Pity he comes attached with that psycho "First Lady" who never leaves him alone. 

Monday, March 2, 2020

Turkey - Syria (Russia) Border War

Turkey is waging an air campaign run entirely by armed drones backed up by heavy rocket artillery. It has destroyed three Soviet anti-air batteries. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Ankara destroyed eight Syrian helicopters, 103 tanks, 72 artillery and rocket launchers, and three air defence systems. This is a new, advanced type of attack, with almost no infantry or mechanized forces. For me this already counts as war. Turkey is a serious force, a reborn regional hegemon, and does not hesitate attacking Russia. Pic: The capture of Azov by the Russians, 1696. 

Sunday, March 1, 2020

Virus Phylogeny

Someone in Washington State, USA, created this graph showing the evolution of the coronavirus. It appears that WA2 variety in the USA is not a new introduction from China but descendant of WA1 found previously in the country. It means that the WA virus has been around for several weeks and evolving. Other lines also are evolving independently. Maybe the Japanese doctor's approach is the most appropriate: The virus cannot be contained, most people will be infected and feel nothing, a few will develop flu, seniors may develop pneumonia and be treated in a hospital. The Wuhan statistics are mostly meaningless.