A hundred years later: Germany Re-Arming

 
Astonishing statement from General Carsten Breuer, chief of the German defence staff.

"Germany no longer regards the USA as a reliable defence partner. We are assuming conflict with Russia in the next few years is inevitable, we are re-arming.

We are back to 1930. Why is the war with Russia inevitable? Why?

Maximum optionality

 Lingo for "We are waiting for the right moment". I think that this month-long war is going well. As planned, the war has messed up the Middle East and is leading to the coalescence of a Sunni coalition of the Gulf emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and maybe Pakistan. Israel is not alone in facing Iran's nuclear bomb. The Shi'a of South Lebanon are being expelled, and Iran's fanatic Ayatollah regime has been replaced by a hard but rational military dictatorship. For more than a month, I have heard nothing about Gaza. Half of the territory has been bulldozed and made ready for civilization. What the war has not achieved is the participation of Europe, but I think they, too, will be forced to defend their oil supply if they want to exist as independent nations. Thanks to their passivity (cowardice?), the Anglo-Saxons are - once again - sitting on the world's oil and gas. We are on the side of the victors. 

 

Pirates of Barbary

 The pirates of Barbary (Algeria) kidnapped and enslaved millions of Europeans in the 17th and 18th centuries. Nothing was done; they paid the ransoms in gold. Till they made a mistake: they kidnapped a few Americans. President Adams sent the new republic's marines, and the whole Barbarian business ended quickly. 

Today, Iran and Yemen are trying to tax maritime traffic. Europe is impotent and will pay, as always. All are looking at President Trump to send in the Marines.

"Hostia, hostia, ¡a tomar por culo! "

 Today, a missile was intercepted over my head, and pieces fell in the neighborhood. I don't know what this thing is; maybe it is part of a missile from Iran. It caused some damage to an apartment, while the people were safe in the basement. I downloaded the pic from the media. The Gov asks not to publish anything, but this has already been published. 

Iran is attacking left and right, frightening half the universe. The Spanish have the ugliest attitude, their President announced: "Why should we be suffering? We did nothing. It's all because of the Jews." This resonates with Europeans as they will pay more for gas, spend on re-arming, and their chronic stagnation will turn into a full recession. 

From La Vanguardia, a progressive Spanish paper, today:

 "Hostia, hostia, ¡a tomar por culo! Nos estamos desconectando": así reaccionaron en el centro del control de Red Eléctrica (REE). Si España no existiera, habría que inventarla.

Status and Prole

The political consequences of low elite fertility among the Roman elites were highly unstable succession to the Roman throne and frequent internal conflicts. Hereditary succession was acceptable to the senate, "but the main problem was that from the time of Augustus to the mid-third century (almost three centuries), only three emperors – Vespasian, Marcus Aurelius, and Septimius Severus – had sons who could inherit."

The Changing Middle East

Syria's former and current ruling couple. 

Western values are not winning. 

 

Crabtree's Prediction

 
From Wikipedia:   In 2013, Crabtree published "Our Fragile Intellect" in Trends in Genetics, The prediction that our intellectual abilities are genetically fragile was based on the determined rate of human de novo mutations (those mutations that appear in each generation). This rate has been determined in several human populations to be about 1.20 x10^-8 per nucleotide per generation with an average father's age of 29.7 years. This rate doubles every 16.5 years with the father's age and ascribes most of the new mutations to the father during the production of reproductive cells.  Thus about 45 to 60 new mutations occur per generation per human genome with each new generation.  The conclusion that the accumulation of these new mutations over the generations would lead to intellectual fragility was based on the estimate of the fraction of genes necessary for normal development of the nervous system, which is thought to be several thousand. The nervous system is unique in that an extraordinarily large number of genes are required for the development and function of the brain, representing perhaps 10–20% of all human genes. The simple combination of the number of genes required for normal brain development (>1000) and the fact that each human generation has 45-60 new mutations per genome led Crabtree to suggest that our intellectual abilities are particularly genetically fragile over many generations.

His thesis: Each generation, humans accumulate ~50–60 new mutations. Most are harmless. But some are slightly harmful and aren’t removed. They stack. Over ~3,000 years, humans may have accumulated multiple mutations affecting cognition. In the past, natural selection filtered out harmful traits. Today, modern society buffers survival, meaning that those mutations may persist rather than be removed.

I think that natural selection is active no less than before, and intelligent people do reproduce themselves. Today, that is unclear because of the general mixing that takes place.