Dark Ages Ahead

I am following The Economist's weekly data table and wondering why GNP growth has stopped across the West.  In the USA, the size of the workforce has fallen by over 1 million people in the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s now 169.1 million, compared with 170.4 million last July, according to agency data. The strongest factor is the ongoing retirement of baby boomers. The youngest boomers are now in their early 60s, and their continuing departure from the workforce is “the most steady thing pushing the rate lower. That’s the clear, sustained decline.

Europe is no different. But the most dramatic case is Japan, which was once the most dynamic economy of all. More than stagnating, it is contracting rapidly. If they start to sell their mountain of dollar savings, the dollar will lose its value even more. 

Difficult times are a-coming. I have played my cards and shall sit on the side as a kibitzer. 

Obituary of a Scotsman

 Andrew Wemyss, Fife laird. Born: 3 October, 1925 in Edinburgh. Died: 30 June, 2026, in Dunfermline, aged 100

He was a direct descendant of Augusta FitzClarence, the illegitimate daughter of King William IV, who reigned for seven years until 1837. Second son of Michael Wemyss of that Ilk and chief of Wemyss, and a distant cousin of the 13th Earl of Wemyss (chief of Charteris), Andrew’s maternal grandfather was the 6th Duke of Portland, through his mother, Victoria Cavendish-Bentinck. Victoria, in turn, was the last surviving goddaughter of Queen Victoria, after whom she was named.

At the coronation of King George VI in 1937, Andrew served as a page to his ducal grandfather – whose duties that day centred on carrying the crown of the new queen. Coincidentally, Queen Elizabeth was Andrew’s kinswoman, since her mother was a Cavendish-Bentinck. Further queenly connection occurred through his mother-in-law, Alethea Abel-Smith, also kin.

Clarification: "Of that Ilk" is a Scots territorial designation meaning "of the same" — from Old English ilca, "same." It's used when a laird's surname is identical to the name of his lands, to avoid the clumsy repetition of "Wemyss of Wemyss." A laird is the Scots term for the owner of a landed estate. Many clan chiefs are lairds, but the two are distinct: chiefship is headship of a family; lairdship is ownership of land. Wemyss happens to be both. I am learning something every day. 

AI-products

 Pic. copied from the internet. It is tagged as an AliExpress product and is obviously AI-generated. Very attractive, better than the original. How can an 80-year-old man resist these images? 

AI is playing us. We are fried, as they used to say. 

Don Inodoro

A rare example of Argentine humor. 

Mendieta the dog: What are you doing, Don Inodoro?

Don Inodoro, the gaucho: I am working to find dinosaur bones. 

Mendieta: A long time they have not been seen in these parts.

Inodoro: A dinosaur?

Mendieta: No. Somebody working.

Amulet for Enrichment

Ashirus means Enrichment in Ashkenazi Hebrew. 

"The leader of the Edah HaChareidis, Rabbi Moshe Sternbuch, may he live long, a leading halachic authority, has announced that “those who donate to Merkaz HaTorah Teshuvos V'Hanhagos will receive wealth."

"Support the establishment of the new Merkaz HaTorah Teshuvos V'Hanhagos Kollel in Beit Shemesh and receive the leading halachic authority’s exclusive Golden Protective Coin, which is said to be a treasured spiritual merit associated with livelihood, wealth, and success"

Fast! Get your Golden Protective Coin and get rich! If the Jews buy the coin, it must be worth it! The Jews are not stupid!    BTW, I am very much for donating to Jewish schools, except that I am a penniless Hungarian refugee with a big family and genetically schmutzig (in the sense of stingy, mean, ungenerous). 

Structural headwinds for Elbit

 Elbit published Q2 2026 before the open this morning, and this is a "sell the news" reaction to results that look strong on the headline but thinner underneath.

The headline numbers actually beat: revenues $2,287.1M vs $1,972.7M a year ago, backlog at a record $32.0B, GAAP EPS $3.61 and non-GAAP EPS $4.14, against a consensus of roughly $3.24 EPS on $2.22B revenue. So why the 7% fall? 

The quality of the beat. Buried in the release: the Knesset's new R&D incentive law (March 31, 2026) was applied for the first time, with a cumulative year-to-date impact of about $40 million — roughly $0.80/share, recognised in this quarter. Strip that out and the "beat" is largely gone.

Tax is now a structural headwind. The effective tax rate went from 5.6% to 16.4%, driven by the OECD Pillar II global minimum tax. That is permanent, and analysts will now rebase forward EPS on a mid-teens rate.

Written by Opus 5. 

August is a Difficult Month

We are suffering here from a very hot August, and we are spending all day in our air-conditioned cave. I am receiving many work orders but am not in the mood for work. This morning I felt half suffocated. Wife is depressed; her friends are aging. She is on Russian literary podcasts. The big Sunni nations have signed a mutual defense pact. It could be against the Shi'a (Iran) or the Jews (Israel).  The sheqel is very strong, 3 sh/US$. Facebook was fined half a trillion for its sick influence on adolescents. In truth, the internet smells like a Nigerian bordello (Argentine quilombos are clean and well-ordered). The painting ("The whores of Avignon") is signed by Pablo Picasso, so it is HIGH ART.