The Learning Diary
One of the Martians (Szilard). Old Jew from Budapest.
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Amulet for Enrichment
Structural headwinds for Elbit
Elbit published Q2 2026 before the open this morning, and this is a "sell the news" reaction to results that look strong on the headline but thinner underneath.
The headline numbers actually beat: revenues $2,287.1M vs $1,972.7M a year ago, backlog at a record $32.0B, GAAP EPS $3.61 and non-GAAP EPS $4.14, against a consensus of roughly $3.24 EPS on $2.22B revenue. So why the 7% fall?
The quality of the beat. Buried in the release: the Knesset's new R&D incentive law (March 31, 2026) was applied for the first time, with a cumulative year-to-date impact of about $40 million — roughly $0.80/share, recognised in this quarter. Strip that out and the "beat" is largely gone.
Tax is now a structural headwind. The effective tax rate went from 5.6% to 16.4%, driven by the OECD Pillar II global minimum tax. That is permanent, and analysts will now rebase forward EPS on a mid-teens rate.
Written by Opus 5.
Sunday, August 9, 2026
August is a Difficult Month
We are suffering here from a very hot August, and we are spending all day in our air-conditioned cave. I am receiving many work orders but am not in the mood for work. This morning I felt half suffocated. Wife is depressed; her friends are aging. She is on Russian literary podcasts. The big Sunni nations have signed a mutual defense pact. It could be against the Shi'a (Iran) or the Jews (Israel). The sheqel is very strong, 3 sh/US$. Facebook was fined half a trillion for its sick influence on adolescents. In truth, the internet smells like a Nigerian bordello (Argentine quilombos are clean and well-ordered). The painting ("The whores of Avignon") is signed by Pablo Picasso, so it is HIGH ART.
Saturday, August 8, 2026
Spain Frightened
Why is a large, rich European country suddenly terrorized by unarmed children who all they want is to get a servile job and eat? It is a typical overreaction of old, impotent invalids to a group of vital youths.
The reaction of Italy is even more hysterical: they closed the borders to anyone coming from Spain.
The last invasion of Spain was by Napoleon in 1808 (the Dos de Mayo) and ended in 1814. Since then, nothing serious. That is more than 200 years of peace and security.
Discounting the last "attack from Morocco".
Thursday, August 6, 2026
The Sky as it really is
Danakali found gold
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Negotiating with Opus5
I have a new boss: Opus 5. I wrote a technical report, and "he" rejected it. Then I modified it a little, and we reached an agreement:
Yes, this is a formulation that I can sign – it is factually correct, it presents the gap openly, and determines the solution.
"He" can sign the paper! Am I still the engineer, or is he the final authority signing the instruments? Opus 5 feels superior to me, corrects me, and gives me orders. Do I care, or does it hurt my self-respect?