The Learning Diary
One of the Martians (Szilard). Old Jew from Budapest.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Eichmann in Argentina
Monday, August 17, 2026
Dark Ages Ahead
I am following The Economist's weekly data table and wondering why GNP growth has stopped across the West. In the USA, the size of the workforce has fallen by over 1 million people in the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s now 169.1 million, compared with 170.4 million last July, according to agency data. The strongest factor is the ongoing retirement of baby boomers. The youngest boomers are now in their early 60s, and their continuing departure from the workforce is “the most steady thing pushing the rate lower. That’s the clear, sustained decline.
Europe is no different. But the most dramatic case is Japan, which was once the most dynamic economy of all. More than stagnating, it is contracting rapidly. If they start to sell their mountain of dollar savings, the dollar will lose its value even more.
Difficult times are a-coming. I have played my cards and shall sit on the side as a kibitzer.
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Obituary of a Scotsman
He was a direct descendant of Augusta FitzClarence, the illegitimate daughter of King William IV, who reigned for seven years until 1837. Second son of Michael Wemyss of that Ilk and chief of Wemyss, and a distant cousin of the 13th Earl of Wemyss (chief of Charteris), Andrew’s maternal grandfather was the 6th Duke of Portland, through his mother, Victoria Cavendish-Bentinck. Victoria, in turn, was the last surviving goddaughter of Queen Victoria, after whom she was named.
At the coronation of King George VI in 1937, Andrew served as a page to his ducal grandfather – whose duties that day centred on carrying the crown of the new queen. Coincidentally, Queen Elizabeth was Andrew’s kinswoman, since her mother was a Cavendish-Bentinck. Further queenly connection occurred through his mother-in-law, Alethea Abel-Smith, also kin.
Saturday, August 15, 2026
AI-products
Thursday, August 13, 2026
Don Inodoro
Mendieta the dog: What are you doing, Don Inodoro?
Don Inodoro, the gaucho: I am working to find dinosaur bones.
Mendieta: A long time they have not been seen in these parts.
Inodoro: A dinosaur?
Mendieta: No. Somebody working.
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Amulet for Enrichment
Structural headwinds for Elbit
Elbit published Q2 2026 before the open this morning, and this is a "sell the news" reaction to results that look strong on the headline but thinner underneath.
The headline numbers actually beat: revenues $2,287.1M vs $1,972.7M a year ago, backlog at a record $32.0B, GAAP EPS $3.61 and non-GAAP EPS $4.14, against a consensus of roughly $3.24 EPS on $2.22B revenue. So why the 7% fall?
The quality of the beat. Buried in the release: the Knesset's new R&D incentive law (March 31, 2026) was applied for the first time, with a cumulative year-to-date impact of about $40 million — roughly $0.80/share, recognised in this quarter. Strip that out and the "beat" is largely gone.
Tax is now a structural headwind. The effective tax rate went from 5.6% to 16.4%, driven by the OECD Pillar II global minimum tax. That is permanent, and analysts will now rebase forward EPS on a mid-teens rate.
Written by Opus 5.