Marktstimmung: "Neutral ins zweite Halbjahr"

Sehr geehrter Herr K,

"Sommerträgheit" attestiert Joachim Goldberg dem Markt angesichts der geringen Handelsbreite von 1,9 Prozent in der zurückliegenden Beobachtungswoche. 
Mehr in der Analyse.

Freundliche Grüße
Team Börse Frankfurt

The German bourse has entered the mid-year laziness and nothing is happening. For some reason, the same is happening in the TASE, and in the last month, it was 1% up and 1% down the next day. I sold a lot of stock to pay off my debts, and on relatively good terms. It is very hot here in Israel. 

I am drowning in the amount of work. The regulators - without exceptions - demand more and more reports. The Clients are desperate and ask me please hurry, we will pay anything you ask. I shall start this weekend to send out bills. No one in my age group is still working, I had planned to stop finally 8 years ago, yet here I am. I have a new version of the software I am using, got the kick of it in a day. I am proud of myself. (Also my eldest granddaughter's end-of-year grades are super. She is gifted. I had a poor (and wrong) idea of her.  

The world is getting less comfortable for Jews

 Yesterday I met with a client who is setting up a shop in Modiin. He returned from Chicago after a decade. He had no complaints against the Blacks, who live in a separate ghetto, but downtown has filled up with Arab newcomers. They are violently anti-Jewish and anti-Israel. They have poisoned the atmosphere for Jews and those suspected of Jewish links. 

The Tablet magazine wondered what to do against the anti-Jew wave engulfing America. Their answer is that anything a Jew-in-the-flesh may do will not change the prejudice against the abstract imagined "Jew'. For The Tablet, fomenting a generally liberal, tolerant, open society is the best option. Soros program is, maybe, subtly good for Jews. I've done a full circle and came back to the liberal left. 

The Chinese change history (as we know it)

Some recent studies in Central Asia history write about the Chinese initiative to enlarge their markets and to build infrastructure in the past, such as the Silk Road. Apparently, these papers pretend to justify the ongoing initiative of President Xi - the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in nearly 70 countries.  In other words, they are pretending that Xi's 2013 project is nothing new, it is what the Chinese always have been doing, nothing to be concerned about. 

As far as I know, the Chinese were at the end of the Silk Road, which was developed by Roman, Greek (Rhodan?), and Persian merchants, They reached China traversing the Gobi desert with large caravans. Others, like the Greek author of the Periplus went by sea. There are no records of Chinese caravans or flotillas reaching Europe. China is rewriting history. 

The University Alliance of the Silk Road centered at Xi'an Jiaotong University aims to support the Belt and Road initiative with research and engineering, and to foster understanding and academic exchange. A French think tank, Foundation France Chine (France-China Foundation), focused on the study of the New Silk Roads, was launched in 2018. It is described as pro–Belt and Road Initiative and pro-China. 

The Ramla Man

 

Excavations in the Nesher Cement Factory in Ramla uncovered ancient human bones. It is a pre-Neanderthal specimen, that may have fathered the Neanderthal and Denisova humans. What we learn from this discovery? That hundreds of human varieties passed through this land, the end result being us, the Jews. Our species does not tolerate nor co-exist with different kinds of humans. The history here and everywhere is an unending chain of wars and genocides. The most successful varieties in our times are the Germanic peoples (Ashkenazim are part of this group), the Bantu in Africa, and the Han, the North-East Asian people. Put two of them on an island and very soon there will be only one. America and South Africa are working through this process. 

Blame Darwin

 The improbable has happened and the COVID has mutated into a more potent virus: the Delta. In the end, it will get me too. 

Evolution happens. Left: Darwin's Blue Foot Pidgeon.

Israel Pays the Price of Vassalage

"Israel took its first stance against China’s inhumane treatment and forced incarceration of its Uyghur minority, signing on to a condemnation issued at the United Nations Human Rights Council’s 47th session on Tuesday, at Washington’s behest." (from the Jerusalem Post).  In my opinion, the Turks of the Chinese Turkestan are not our friends, they are our enemies. Many of them volunteered to fight in ISIS and were seen on the Syrian border. They, and the Chechens, are Muslim enemy nations, and we must give thanks to the Russians and the Chinese that they keep them pacified. Israel was forced to condemn China against its best interests. Correction: Keeping our alignment with America is our first and best interest.  We had to swallow that frog and say we loved it. Pic.: The Volga Boatmen.

Bankrupting Argentina (were it possible)

 Of course, it is impossible. Argentina IS totally bankrupt after having suspended repayment of foreign debts ten or twenty times since independence. Now, a cultivated meat factory has been built in Israel (pic) - the first in the world - and will outcompete Argentine meat exports. It would be ironic that Israel, a country that not long ago lived off the generosity of American Jews, would be a world power in the meat industry.  Less pompously, we are in the meat export business!

My AI guardian watches over me

 I am silently liquidating part of my portfolio. My action alerted my guardian AI and she phoned me if everything was OK. I do not want privacy - on the contrary, it is good they check if I am still alive and sober. Nice. 

Most of the representations of guardian angels are female. I'd prefer a male, fighting AI angel, but in these woke times, I have to accept any uncertainly gendered guardian they assign to me.

Perpetual Underdog?

Writer, engineer, and collapse expert Dmitry Orlov has been arguing for 25 years that the USA is heading for a disaster worse than the one Russia suffered after the implosion of the USSR. His new article “The Technosphere chokes on a chip” suggests that a shortage of microchips could set off a cascade of disasters...                                                                                                               Pic. left: Plywood boat. Beautiful. No relation to the context. 
• JohnPlywood says:

  June 19, 2021 at 12:26 pm GMT • 17.6 hours ago   ↑

  @Mulga Mumblebrain

  Strongly disagree. China is stumbling on its way down the staircase to oblivion, and you fools are still rooting for it like the perpetual underdog that it is. This is a humorous thing to witness, like Orlov’s 25-year strong prediction that the United States will “collapse”. Somebody try to get him some help.

• The above is from Unz's comments section. 

灯影奇遇Chinese Shade Dance

My Horoscope for Today

Capricorn, there is a push and pull between your needs and the needs of others you work with. In the end, it’s always wise to identify what you need first. There is a powerful cardinal T-square between the Libra moon, Venus in Cancer, and Pluto in Capricorn retrograde. This planetary alignment is one of extreme tension and change, but since Venus is involved, it’s for the better. Own your leadership skills and articulate your end of the contract in an authentic way. Not all agreements are meant to last forever.

Inauspicious Days

 The bourse was falling 1% from the opening at 10.00 AM and I felt unable to focus, so took 10 mg Valium and courageously liquidated some positions. Then went to sleep. Now that that trading week is over, I see that NICE lost 5% and in fact, the week's trend was down. Not a good day to sell, but I had to do it. I can now rest for a week. Hope we are not watching the beginning of a worldwide crash. My father could see the future, I would like to imagine that I inherited a little of his Clairvoyance. 

Fermentation

The real inflation rate in the USA is about 7-8% and growing. Israeli sheqel is linked to the dollar. So real interest rate must be around - 3 - 5%. *KYLE BASS SAYS WE HAVE NEGATIVE REAL RATES OF OVER 10%: CNBC *KYLE BASS SAYS ACTUAL INFLATION IS 12%: CNBC This country is fermenting, the cheap money is stimulating the economy and entrepreneurship. People here are doing business like crazy.  I just heard on the street "Do you will partner with me in this business?"  

A Feeling of No-Se-Que

 I have of feeling that cannot define, un no-se-que (Spanish: I don't know what), but sure it is not happy. The bourse is losing its "animal spirits" and each day is worth one percent less. I have to pay debts and had to sell at loss. My antennae perceive violence irradiating from the Arabs and the fragility of the new government. I could not sleep and read Twitter messages of modest haredi girls. They live in terror of the shidduch (matchmaking). They cannot date a candidate more than twice or so and are under terrible pressure to decide. They are intelligent but insecure, and they relieve the stress through short, witty, obscure messages. I feel pity for them. 

Netanyahu is Out

 

A new government has been sworn in. The economy is now fully in the pockets of the Ukrainian party of Avigdor Liberman. I thought that Bourse would react, but nothing happens.  

Balestinians

 There is no "P" in Arabic, and the Palestinians are unable to pronounce the name of their nation. In Arabic, "P" is pronounced as "B". Palestine is an artificial construction and the Palestinians have been invented to oppose us, the Jews coming back to our ancestral land. 

Israel's Catch-As-Catch-Can Government

The “non-decision-making process” occupies a significant chapter in the theory and practice of politics. The eight-fighting tribe Coalition for Change that will rule Israel from this week on (for a while, at least) is based on refraining from taking decisions on controversial issues. Of course, it is not going to work. Reality changes, opportunities to screw the partners arise, and decisions need to be taken. It will be a free-for-all Roman circus spectacle. 

Dollar Devaluation

 
The inflation in America is hitting 5-7% p.a. and seems unstoppable for now. I can get bank loans at 3% in shekel, so we are entering the time of monetary speculation. On a personal level, I am feeling well but afraid of long-term projects, because of the shock of the sudden death of my friend Viky. He had just married. He was not yet eighty! Was he an optimist...!

Pic: The 100,000,000 pengo Hungarian banknote. It was shortly followed by the Communist victory. 

Jackson, Boil the Water

 

Chokwe A. Lumumba, Mayor of Jackson Mississippi warns the population to boil the water (left). He sends out two or three notices per day. It is based on turbidity, an easily measured parameter. Jackson is now 90% African and its infrastructure has collapsed.  They can’t even maintain a fully intact city, like Jackson, they are handed to them basically gift-wrapped with an invisible card attached. The capital of the State has 150,000 inhabitants, constantly dwindling because of "white flight". My estimate of the city's total worth is four billion US$ at 80,000 per dwelling. However, in its present dubious water supply, it must be 50% less. Real estate in American cities (Chicago, Detroit, Flint, Brownsville) is becoming worthless. My father used to mention a rich uncle in Mississippi, who had left Hungary around 1910 and owned a supermarket chain. I looked it up and found their supermarket chain carrying our name. I wonder how much they are worth today. 

Incorruptible Economic Journalists

 I used to read with respect the economic writings of Merav Arlozorov, from HaAretz.  (I have worked with his late Father, Shaul, a  water engineer who helped the Chinese with their "national carrier" project). 

Lately, she has moved to the "Left" ie she quotes statistics that prove the malevolence/incompetence of the "Right". She can look up the number of  "good teachers" in Arab vs Jewish cities and point out the gap between the achievements of the two populations. These are typical accusations used in the USA to explain the Black vs White gap. 

She likes to compare Israel's standing vis-a-vis Luxemburg, Norway, Switzerland.  She quotes indices where we are at a disadvantage and blames the Netaniyahu government. She is extremely unfair. Those countries are the top of the world, homogenous, long-established countries, with no enemies. Israel - with all its handicaps - has surpassed Europe in wealth and just to quote another index, in public health (COVID-19). She knows all that but NEEDS to condemn her country. 

My problem with Merav is that SHE KNOWS and her hypocrisy is conscious. Why? For one, she is employed by HaAretz (need I say more?), a paper where to condemn Israel, is de rigueur. Second, the moment she suggests that Israel is not rabidly racist, that the government and the industry are not out to poison the people, she is labeled "corrupt".  In 2017 she studied the data on air pollution in Haifa and found that the heavy industry had improved and was less polluting. It was said that she was defending the bete noir of the greens, fixated on destroying that vital industry. BTW, the platform of Merav Michaeli (Labour) of the recent coalition promises, as the first thing, to send bulldozers and level the industrial park. Arlozorov was blamed for using official data, that is, the Ministry of Environment (the regulator) measurements. Government data, per definition, must be unreliable and if good, paid for by the blood-sucking Capital.

Why an excellent, intelligent, Zionist economic journalist has been forced to hypocrisy? My answer, because of humanity's natural envy of the successful, of the powerful, and the consequent psychological desire to destroy it. People are evil by nature, it is written in the Tora. 

P.S.: Today she wrote: "the new government, should it arise". She knows something? 

Doing my Time

Which is the best nation-state?

 The death of the nation-state has been announced innumerable times. Everything will be still functioning after its demise. Senates will legislate, the Treasuries will print money, etc. The State will die when cannot protect property, provide personal security, create a stable environment for breeding. According to those parameters, Israel is working better than most. It has shown that defends its sovereignty, protects its citizens and it is one of the best places for safe capital. Therefore we are getting more investments and more first-class people are trying to move here. 

China is another contemporary State that offers similarly stable conditions. Yet only 150 years ago it was thoroughly looted by foreigners (Pic. the ruins of the Summer Palace). Life is not guaranteed. 

For me, this is irrelevant. I am at the end of my long life and too old and weak to change anything. 

Sentiment Change in TASE

Oh what a beautiful morning,
Oh what a beautiful day,
I've got a wonderful feeling,
Everything's going my way.

TASE is getting used fast to the Bennet government. It is rising! The Haredim have been given the chance of joining the coalition. Every politician is seeking a niche in the coming coalition. 

 

The Weekly Horror Story

This week we learn that while the escaped Hebrew slaves were transiting in the wilderness, they caught a Hebrew man gathering firewood. It was Saturday. The mob brought him to their leaders, Moshe and Aharon. “The man must surely be put to death. The whole congregation is to stone him outside the camp.”

Other peoples punish illegal sex or stealing, blasphemy. Roman legions beat to death soldiers caught sleeping on guard because they endangered their comrades. Victorians were killed for stealing. But for collecting firewood in the wilderness? 

The Hebrews took themselves with dreadful seriousness. Not an easygoing, open-minded, happy folk. 

Wait! Netanyahu is not gone yet

On June 2nd Netanyahu's opponents, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, agreed to form a coalition with the monomaniacal goal of getting rid of him.  The only move left is for the Knesset to hold a confidence vote. The ever sober British - The Economist - remind us that Bibi still rules and he is far from gone. He has developed Israel into a flourishing high-tech economy and the world’s best covid-19 vaccination campaign. He has made peace with several Arab states and kept Israel safe, his policies are now generally accepted, even by the politicians pushing him out.

Till the political situation stabilizes, the bourse will be unable to rise above the NASDAQ index. Porca miseria! I have no time, have to sell under duress! 

Translation: Holy Shit! What a shame it will be when the extra-terrestrials invade us and demand to meet our leaders!

Impressions from the New Government

 

Yesterday midnight it was signed the list of participants in the newly formed coalition. It has a strong rightwing (Bennet, Ayala Shaked, Saar) and a strong crazy leftwing (Labor, Meretz, the Islamic Movement - Southern Section). The radio played Palestinian music and interviewed Palestinian politicians. I hoped that the Bourse will respond with prices rising, but I am disappointed. This is not good, I'll be forced to sell at miserable prices. Expletive deleted.

Noia Mocheret Sfarim

 She is selling books. 

President Biden better stays away. The father is rather violent.