Heard in Berlin

I spent a whole hour listening to a Hudson Institute podcast, interviewing a German diplomat. He presented the case of Germany as a non-nuclear industrial country in the middle of Europe, subject to blackmail and living in fear. The Ukraine-Russia war terrorized them, and even more President Trump decision to withdraw from the American treaty to defend Europe. The Germans fervently desire American presence in Europe, and they want America to fulfil the vacuum existing in Syria. Russia has already moved in an established a base in North Syria. The lesson learnt in Berlin during the last elections in the USA is that Germany cannot allow its destiny to be decided by a "bunch of people in Georgia" momentarily impressed by local police violence or something like that. The bunch referred to are the few thousand AfroAmerican votes that inclined the balance toward Biden (good) against Trump (bad, he wanted to bring back the troops and leave poor Germans unprotected).   Pic:: Hermann Kahn, the founder of the Hudson Institute. 

The Bananization of America

Democrat Cori Bush, an ordained pastor from Missouri, moved her office in the Congress farther away from the office of Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, from Georgia, saying that she feared for her life. Are their ideological differences so deep that they cannot see each other, or is this a row between two vendedoras of fresh mango with adjacent stands in the Feria Popular? 

A Scare

 I had to go to the Kupat Holim Clinic to take an X-ray and three persons from my family came with me.  Apparently, I shall not be left alone on the street under the rain, when old. The report says that everything in my spine is well, nothing broken or damaged, only the normal signs of age. I saw the pic of an old Jew with an unkept white beard, and a number with my age. What a scare! In my daily life I am totally unaware that I look like a "Street Person" and my shocking age.

Twice is not enough

 There is much talk here of the new South African and British variants of the corona virus, and a the need for a third vaccine and probably annual shots. On the other side, the religious neighborhood of Bnei Brak is in open rebellion, they defy government orders and yesterday they burned a bus in the main street. They are sure this is fake pandemic and a conspiracy to make the population to obey blindly government orders. Netaniyahu said that Israel is the world's laboratory for "herd immunity".  Like him and everybody here, I am confused.

The year 2021

 

I received the second injection of the Pfizer vaccine a week ago and definitely am feeling side-effects: cannot think clearly, severe gluteus muscle pain, lack of interest in internet news - in short, cannot work. Every day I am rejecting well paid jobs. Some hospital managers say it does not protect 100% against the disease and its power against the new variants is unknown. It appears that I shall survive 2021 but it will be no joy. 

It is getting worse

Israel has closed its gates, seaports and airports. We are now in a strict quarentaine. The virus has engendered variants that are worse than the original, and they are all in Israel. Surprisingly, the Army Intelligence unit started to post its own report on the epidemic (independently of the Ministry of Health), a rather strange development. The Army started to deal with the epidemic, which may reflect the seriousness of the situation. The haredi sects are in open rebellion, they will not accept the isolation imposed on the rest of the population. 2020 was annus horribilis, and this one is even worse.  

When will this end?

 

Yesterday got the second jab of the Pfizer anti-corona vaccine. Finished the Beit HaMerkazim job. Had to do it twice as the owner wanted fewer holes in the pre-stressed slabs. The schools are closed and three grandchildren spent the day with us and tomorrow four will come. The children dont like each other. Feeling unwell. Israel is world champion in vaccinating yet the number of sick people is growing and more people than ever is getting sick. Many are out of work almost a year, and they feel tired of all this. The tone of the media has changed and the focus is on food, celebrities and such sunny subjects. The bourse is peaking, there is such inflow of dollars that the Central Bank is buying billions of that green toilet-paper to stop the overvaluation of the shekel. From where is coming all this money? American Jews may be worried about the Democrats' "tax the wealth" slogans.

Jews Always in the Front Wave of the Revolution (and everything)

The peaceful protest in the Capitol last Jan.6th was led by a horned Viking with a megaphone (pic). Right behind him we can see a pallid-face, a Woody Allen look-alike, dressed in pelts: he is Aaron Mostrovsky, son of Brooklyn's Chief Judge. He had arrived with his brother, but was left alone. Aaron, fearless, picked up a police shield and a vest, and found himself pushed into the advancing front wave. His presence in this historical, seminal event will secure him the post of Secret Police Chief in some future right-wing regime. Some of the revolutionaries photographed entering with Mao in the Forbidden City were like him, no one can identify who they were are and how they got there, but sure they took part in the climax. In the photos of Fidel Castro descending on Habana from the mountains, we can see standing behind him on the jeep unidentified guerrillas or hitchhikers. Aaron's fore-runners. 

As you may have guessed, Aaron is a professional Architect. 

Alchemy

 

Re-reading Soros' Alchemy understood (at last!) his concept of reflexivity, which is no other than a self-reinforcing trend. The more it progresses, stronger it becomes. Or weaker. Simple. Understood also what he was doing under the term "speculation". He was a money trader, had in his head (and tried to express it through an arrow scheme) of interactions - say Japan has a growing foreign exchange deficit, then a devaluation of the yen may be around the corner. With 20 years experience in foreign currency markets, he was able to predict future rates and put a winning bet. No miracle, just a good mind and much experience. His success cannot be copied by me, because he is talking about the situation in 1970 - fifty years ago! Many try foreign currency speculation, like Fishman, and lose their shirts. In the case of Fishman, his Alliance tire factory.  BTW, in the last fifty years, much has been written about currency speculation, and the field is no more virgin, so to speak. Geriatrics like me, theoretically, prefer fresh, innocent markets and not much circulated dog-eared currency notes. All in theory, because in practice exited the playground a long time ago.  

Never piss against the wind

 Alberto Nisman, Argentina's Attorney General, was executed in his home the night before he was to denounce in the Congress the then President of Argentina Cristina Kirchner, is being investigated post-mortem by the police. A judge has ordered to expropriate all his properties as well as her family's and those of a friend who loaned him a car to drive. Not only the dead public functionary and his family are suspected of criminal activities, but also three companies he may have invested in. Anybody who is thinking of denouncing government corruption in Argentina, should take careful notice. 

Hiatus

I have received several requests for price proposals, but I have not answered them. Two days I worked little or nothing. The quarantine is getting on my nerves. Coffee in the breakfast makes me sleepy and for the first time in my life, stood up and had a morning nap in the living room. Starting to work was always hard for me, once got started it pulls me through, but these days I cannot start. After a year of epidemics, the depression is getting me. We have the grandchildren here, they run around happily, that should rise my spirits. 

The Pfizer vaccine is effective

Today they are starting to give the second shot of the Pfizer anti-corona vaccine. Till now no one with the first shot got corona. There are side effects, like muscle pain, but it is better than dying suffocated. 

The mood is resignation

Going over English-speaking media, the  dominant tone is jubilation, as Trump is accused of a failed insurrection, trying to force the legal authorities to annul the results of the election. The Democrats are poised to impose a strict authoritarian regime. The tone of the right is shock and resignation to a long Democratic winter. 

One blogger observes that in Georgia the unconceivable happened: they elected a Black preacher and a Jewish liberal. This would have never happened if not for the demographic changes  of the last 50 years. Looking at the numbers, that is not true, foreign immigration to the State is less than 2% of the population.  The proportion of Blacks is lower than the historical 50%. 

Commodities Alert!

 I have noticed a strange revival of the shares of ICL the local phosphate fertilizer company. I discovered that the tremendous rise in the demand of agricultural (and oil) commodities is behind it. The speculators are already discounting the yearlong corona crisis. I know what to do tomorrow on TASE.  

Military Lockdown

 The Israeli Army has closed its camps and the soldiers will receive no passes for the next month. It appears that the countrywide quarantine starting this afternoon with no definite end-time will be harsh. 

And boring. 

The Taking of the Capitol

 

Washington is, in many ways, the world's capital. Therefore it would be stupid to underestimate the significance of the opposition to the Democratic (Black) victory. AngloSaxon societies are very stable, and I don't expect America's descent into Venezuela style chaos. I'd even say that for such a large protest, this was a very peaceful. They broke nothing, stole nothing, burnt nothing. Probably because there were relatively few young men.  

Why the Sheqel is so Strong

 

The Sheqel has appreciated vis-a-vis the US$ 10% in the last month and it buys third of a dollar. Why the currency of this mini-country in the Middle Shithole is so sought after? Maybe Israel's success in dealing with the corona-virus has impressed the world? Or is the start-up people, who sold 10 billion dollars worth of trash shares on the Nasdaq are bringing home the spoils? May be American Jews - pondering Biden's leanings - are moving capital to Israel? May be a Viking treasure hoard (pic) was discovered under my garden? I'd have fancied that but, no, it was not the case. 

The Chinese beating the world

Huawei, the giant Chinese processor company, is already selling the 5 nanometer KIRIN9000processor for Android devices. Soon it was followed by Samsung Exynos 1080 and the Qualcomm Snapdragon 888.  The next-gen Kirin processor should arrive as the Kirin 9010 and it will be a 3nm chipset.  This means that the competition is accelerating like crazy and soon the standard will be 3 nm. The issue is that no other chipmaker is able even to approach the 3 nm standard. Intel fell badly behind and that means that Israel's largest exporter will not be able to compete with Made-in-China. Chinese domination of the chip making business will necessarily destroy American (and Israeli) highly paid jobs. I do not know how to fabricate 3 nm chips, so the process seems unstoppable.  The roadmap (pic) already is predicting 2 nm chips. Soon. After that quantum effects take over and the thingie is unmanageable.  Transistor density is not all, performance is all, and in that parameter, INTEL is still competing. It is complicated. 

No retirement in view

I had set a date to retire finally from working as freelance planning engineer and that date is two days from now. But clients are pressuring me to take new projects, money no problem. If I do not work, what shall I do? Tai-chi in the park? My wife is busy tending her hundred years old mother, and my over-worked daughters. but me?  I wonder.  Nice anecdote: I remember seeing older guys getting on the bus to go home from the San Francisco financial district…thousand yard stares, rumpled suits, briefcases.  I thought they looked ancient.  They were probably 50.  I remember listening to this new band on my Sony Walkman on the bus.  One of those ancient guys asked me what I was listening to.  I told him, it was the Police.  He laughed and asked me if I liked the Firemen and the Garbagemen to.  I didn’t think he was funny, nor would have Gordon Sumner, aka Sting.

Disarmament

 I am reading Winston Churchill's book of WWII. The winners of WWI were convinced that universal disarmament would make impossible a new mechanized war. Shalom Achshav "Peace Now" (peace at all cost) Israeli utopist movement did not learn a thing. Churchill writes that the Oxford students club resolution that they refuse to fight for King and Country convinced the Duce and the Fuhrer that England will not resist.   

"...widespread western devotion to disarmament and dedication to peace were two of several reasons why democratic statesmen could not respond decisively to Hitler's threat. 

... Allied failure to bring defeat home to the German people in 1918-19 generated a resentment which contributed to interwar instability and Hitler's rise."