Tired

 

 "I have lived, Sir, a long time and the longer I live, the more convincing proofs I
see of this truth..." said Franklin. I have lived a longer time than Franklin; the longer I live, the more I see myself getting increasingly tired. 

Franklin too had a big beer belly. 

Gafni: This Government lost "Heaven's Approval"

 "I have lived, Sir, a long time and the longer I live, the more convincing proofs I see of this truth -- that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without his notice, is it probable that an empire can rise without his aid?... I believe that without his concurring aid, we shall succeed in this political building no better than the Builders of Babel: We shall be divided by our little partial local interests; our projects will be confounded, and we ourselves shall become a reproach and a bye word down to future age."  Thus spoke Benjamin Franklin.

Gafni, a leader of the religious parties, protests in the Knesset that the current coalition is not fulfilling its promises. Christians use to add to their promises a "With God's Help", the Muslims say "Inshallah" which is the same, and we Jews write on every letter דסיעתא דשמיתא   Desiata Deshamayta which in Aramaic means "With the Help of Heaven". The Chinese may say that Heaven retired the Emperor's legitimacy. Gafni's discontent refers to the coalition's difficulties in keeping its promise of passing a law that the so-called ultrareligious should not be drafted into the army. Gafni and his followers are totally insensitive and blind to the horrible war Israel is waging on two fronts (and three counting Iran). Currently, the religious are granted a self-renewing deferment. 

Boycotted or not

I carry shares of ELBIT, an electronic weapons factory, with an order book of 20 billion US$. The company is profitable and pays off dividends of 40% of the profits. Yet its stock has lost some 15% lately, which is very bad. The cause of its recent loss of value is caused by large investors selling Elbit - they want to avoid being identified with Israeli armament enterprise. This problem will not be solved for a while.

ICL, the Israeli potash company, has also lost a lot lately. I do know the reason, although world fertilizer prices have been falling. Prices of phosphate and potash have retreated since the back half of 2022 from their peak levels attained in the first half riding on the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions due to the sanctions in Belarus. Lower prices are expected to weigh on the company’s sales and profitability in the near term. The problem with the Houties who have closed the port of Eilat may be affecting ICL. 

In general, TASE bourse is maintaining its level and not sinking. Israel's economy has not collapsed because of civil disturbances and the war in Gaza, but it is growing. Paradoxically, in 2024 total economic activity (GNP) is rising. Many working men are in the Army, Palestinian workers are not allowed in Israel, and foreign workers have left because of the war, so it is not clear what is happening. 

Ivri

 Cabezon.

China Still Cannot Feed Itself

China, the world's biggest agriculture importer, has set targets to drastically reduce its reliance on overseas buying over the coming decade in line with its push for food security, but they will be exceedingly difficult to meet, experts say.

With limited land and water, China will have to sharply increase farming productivity through technology, including genetically modified crops, and expand the area under cultivation to meet Beijing's 10-year projections.

The government envisions 92% self-sufficiency in staple grains and beans by 2033, up from 84% during 2021-23, according to a document released in late April, on a path toward Chinese President Xi Jinping's goal to become an "agriculture power" by the middle of the century.

From: Japan Times. 

So China has not been able to solve how to feed its people. When I first visited China, the issue on the table was famine, the population was growing, and agricultural yields were low. I thought that by now they were past this issue. 

B-21 Raider: This Changes Everything.

 

Gradually the planes are evolving. Maybe the ultimate form will be a paper circle, a flying saucer. Apparently, the pic left exaggerates its thinness. 

B-21 Raider will be capable of penetrating the toughest defenses to deliver precision strikes anywhere in the world. The B-21 is the future of deterrence. 

New Game: Automated Credit Trading

Automated credit trading has been growing for years, particularly among brokers and dealers, but was focused on helping traders buy and sell securities more efficiently. What’s different now is that the robots are making more decisions about what securities to buy and sell.

To come up with their assessments, the Barclays team counted all the US mutual funds that have the terms “systematic,” “quant” or “algorithm” along with “corporate,” “credit,” “bond” or “fixed income,” and found that their assets under management had doubled to $3.7 billion over the past year. They also spoke with Barclays’ algorithmic trading desk to find that one in six electronic requests for quotes come from systematic accounts. From Bloomberg.

Investors are playing against robots. A new game. 

Everything we can do, robots can do better. 

They also outlined risks associated with increased systematic trading, especially the potential for trend-followers creating “herding behavior” around certain names and amplifying volatility. Similarly, factor models that try to build on momentum, search for underpriced bonds or take advantage of bid-ask spreads can cause sharp movements in prices, as can tactical strategies that trade individual bonds.

Hamas on the Roof

GAZA YESTERDAY 

The second one offers himself as a target. 

Mohammed: "Urgent! Stop sending me more martyrs. I am out of virgins!"

Without Feathers

 

	Hope is the thing with feathers that perches in the soul
	Emily Dickinson Hope is not "the thing with feathers." The thing with feathers has turned out to be my nephew. I must take him to a specialist in Zurich. What if everything is an illusion and nothing exists? In that case, I definitely overpaid for my carpet. Woody Allen

Dogs ruling England

 The data watchdog has ordered a water company to release secret figures that could reveal illegal sewage spills.

This is from The Times of London. In England of our day, dogs give orders, and no one raises an eyebrow. 

"Five more refusenik water companies could also be forced to reveal details on the discharge of raw sewage after a ruling by the information watchdog."

In my time, a refusenik was a Soviet Jew who had been refused to exit the country. He did not refuse anything, on the contrary, he was not allowed to make aliyah. The Times is torturing the English language.  

Poisoned by Lead

Lead exposure from drinking wine and other beverages stored in lead vessels could have contributed to mental instability, and erratic behavior, in some Roman emperors.

Lead poisoning can cause a variety of neurological and psychiatric symptoms, including:

• Brain damage, especially to the prefrontal cortex controlling judgment, impulse control, and personality
• Mental fogginess, confusion, and difficulty concentrating
• Irritability, aggression, and abrupt mood swings
• Hallucinations and delusional thinking
• Mania, hyperactivity, and impulsive behavior

Some examples of Roman emperors who exhibited disturbing mental states and cruelties that could potentially be linked to lead exposure include:

• Caligula - Became increasingly unstable, with bouts of anger, perverse sexuality, and delusions of grandeur.
• Nero - Started out promisingly but descended into debauchery, megalomania, and severe persecution of Christians.
• Commodus - Initially capable but later displayed bizarre behavior like fighting as a gladiator despite his imperial rank.

A hunded years ago

 The unintelligent man says: "We are too many." Intelligent men reply: "We are too few!". I affirm that the most fundamental if not essential element in the political power and therefore economic and moral power of Nations, is their demographic strength.

Let us speak frankly: What are 40 million Italians compared to 90 million Germans and 200 million Slavs? Let us turn to the West: what are 40 million Italians compared to 40 million Frenchmen, in addition to 90 million colonial inhabitants, or compared to 46 million Englishmen, in addition to the 450 million colonials? Gentlemen, if Italy is to count for anything in the world, then she must reach a population of no less than 60 million inhabitants by the middle of this century.

You may say: How will they live in this territory? The same reasoning was very likely brought forward in 1815, when there were only 16 million Italians living in Italy. Perhaps at that time it was also thought impossible that in the same territory one would be able to find — on an infinitely higher standard of living — food and lodging for the 40 million Italians of today.

For five years we have been going about saying that the Italian population is overflowing. It is not true! The river no longer overflows; rapidly enough it is returning to its channel. All nations and all empires have felt the bite of their decadence when they have seen their birth rates decline. What was the Pax Romana of Augustus? The Pax Romana of Augustus was a brilliant facade, behind which lay the already-fermenting signs of decline. And throughout the last century of the Second Republic ⁠— from Julius Caesar, who sent his legionaries with three sons to the fertile lands of the South, to the laws of Augustus, to the ordines maritandi ⁠— the anguish is evident. The whole history of Rome up to Trajan, in the last century of the Republic and from the first to the third century of the Empire, is dominated by this anguish: the Empire was no longer held, because it had to be defended by mercenaries.

From Benito Mussolini. Pic.: Giorgia Meloni, Italy's current president.

The Paz Romana started when Augustus stopped the expansion of the Roman Empire and focused on fortifying the borders, which were defended by mercenaries (not Roman citizens). It was mandated by the lack of Romans. 

People in Israel

 On the eve of Israel's 76th Independence Day, the population of Israel was 9.900 million.  7.427 million Jews (73.2%) o 2.089 million Arabs2 (21.1%) o 564,000 Others (5.7%) • Since last year’s Independence Day, Israel's population has grown by 189,000 (an increase of 1.9%). During this period, about 196,000 infants were born, about 37,000 immigrants arrived, and about 60,000 persons died. 

Machine for Thinking

One millimeter of cerebral tissue.  It's rather complicated. From/

The first I saw a brain tissue color preparation on a glass was on the University microscope. I stole the glass rectangle to study it more at home on my home microscope. That was the only time I did something "bad" (not counting harvesting and eating the kohlrabi of Professor Sivori's experimental plots).  That was sixty years ago. So the picture at the left is what I expected. Yet it is amazing, how evolution could produce something like this - and there is no doubt that it did! 

Nazca Aqueducts

 

Another mystery solved: the Nazca spirals are mechanisms to create pressure in underground channels. It is very ingenious. It embodies the universal paradox that the contemporary people living in the place seem totally incapable of inventing or building the antique marvels found there. This paradox is valid for Greece, Western Turkey, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, Burma, etc. I remember being perplexed by a mysterious massive Olmec stone head standing in the chicken coop of a mud house in Guatemala nowhere. 

Motivation

 

I need to improve my physical condition. Friday in Rehovot I felt dizzy and had to rest half an hour to get going again. Exercise or else!

We are motivated to seek food, water, and sex, but our behavior is also influenced by social approval, acceptance, the need to achieve, and the motivation to take or to avoid risks.

I want to make money to give to my grandchildren.