Concerns World Over

 Concerns about the fallout from a US strike on Iran have helped to drive oil higher this year, despite expectations of a global glut. American military forces have massed in the Middle East, and the State Department on Monday ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel at its embassy in Beirut. 

“Oil markets are in a holding pattern pending updates on the Iran situation, with a healthy dose of skepticism being placed on any de-escalatory rhetoric,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. The US military build-up has added a risk premium of around $10 per barrel to prices, he said. 

The whole world is expecting the resolution of the current tension in the Middle East. NASDAQ and TASE stock exchanges are unsettled, with random rises and falls of 10%. 

A Democratic party post-election study says that the support for Israel caused last election loss. The left is mad at Israel to the point that only strong and vocal antisemitic positions will satisfy it. We are back to 1938, when Roosevelt found that antisemitism made it politically onerous to help European Jews. I am more and more convinced that Arthur Koestler was right in that the Holocaust happened because European peoples wanted it. A hundred years later a universal sentiment is converging that Israel (and the Jews) are an unsufferable nuisance.   

Pic.: Vienna 1938. Jews publicly humiliated, forced to wash the streets. I could feel a bit of schadenfreude in the fact that the public in the photograph is barely represented today, as half of the younger Viennese are foreigners. They had ruined themselves and are semi-extinguished. 

"גַּם כִּי-אֵלֵךְ בְּגֵיא צַלְמָוֶת, לֹא-אִירָא רָע"

 

Extensor tendinitis or pre-gout

 
Claude's diagnosis: 

Stable, non-worsening swelling over two days with mild redness and no severe tenderness points strongly toward extensor tendinitis — nothing alarming.

Just stick with the simple approach: rest, cold packs, topical Voltaren gel, and loose footwear. At 80, tendons take a bit longer to settle down, so give it 5-7 days of consistent rest and you should see gradual improvement.

The main thing to watch for is any sudden worsening — increased swelling, fever, or the pain becoming severe. If any of those appear, see a doctor promptly. Otherwise, this looks like something that will resolve on its own with conservative care.

And do keep an eye on that blood pressure — if it stays above 150/95 consistently, it's worth a conversation with your doctor about adjustment of medication.

Probable cause : (1) obesity (2) wearing schoes that fit poorly. 

PS: After Blood Analysis:  Uric Acid 6.7 = green, within the normal range. All other parameters are also normal. No gout.

Probable cause: as above. Up to now, Claude appears correct.

AOC

New York radicals/Marxists have a rising star - Alejandra Ocasio-Cortez.  She is a populist Puertoriquena, with little knowledge of the world but full of energy and daring. She does appeal to the Caribbean and Mexican recent immigrant population, a massive voting bloc that will decide the future of America. Trump may be the last Republican (non-mestizo) President. On the other hand, the USA was prospering under Barack Obama and Joe Biden, as it is now. The country is very solid, and it may survive Latino politics. 

Memorandum

 

To remember: The US dollar has lost 15% of its value vis-a-vis the Euro and other currencies. One can hear the air escaping from it. Most economies are stagnating; only India is growing forcefully. Israel, too, is growing. Stock exchanges are static or falling everywhere. President Trump has seized much power and has frightened medio mundo. I have lots of work orders and am earning money. I have no more goals to fulfil nor a program to achieve anything. This is the way it should be at eighty, but somehow it feels empty. 

Switzerland to cap the population at 10 million

 The proposal to be voted on in June 2026 caps Switzerland's permanent resident population at 10 million by 2050.  Triggers government intervention when the population reaches 9.5 million. Switzerland's population currently stands at around 9 million. The country has grown about 5 times faster than the EU average, 40% of the population has a migrant background, and 31% are foreign residents. There is also differential reproduction: 1.33 children born/Swiss woman vs 1.86 children born/non-Swiss woman.

It is one of the richest countries in the world, and they do not like foreigners. Japan has reached a similar undeclared decision to limit its population. They don't feel the need to grow; they are sure they can survive and defend themselves, despite being few in number.

 It is very different in Israel. 

Estancia La Porota

 Celebrating the foundation of the city of Alvear, Corrientes, Argentina. 

La ciudad fue fundada oficialmente el 10 de febrero de 1863 bajo la sombra del legendario "Ombú Protector", árbol que aparece en el escudo comunal. Según el censo de 2001 tenía 7.917 habitantes, aunque estimaciones más recientes la sitúan cerca de 10.000 habitantes.

Claude, the Uberchochem

 
My NICE stock has lost about 50% over the last three years, and I tend to sell underperforming stocks. Today it was rising 1%, so I sold it all. The stock is now rising 2%. I asked Claude to analyse if I made a mistake, and he made a very long analysis and said that NICE was cheap, and I made a panic mistake. That was the article in The Economist that AI is going to harm software factories, and I was in panic. He gave me a long list of advice. 

Later, I asked him to make a long-term analysis, and yes, it must be in some kind of price-trap and did well in selling. It is confusing, too clever and a half, capable of explaining any decision very intelligently. Anyway, I am out of NICE and looking for an alternative. I'll not ask this chatty AI, too uberchochem and parlanchin. 

Family a Hundred Years Ago

 

The tall man standing on the left is my grandfather Duved, and the beautiful woman sitting second from the left is my grandmother Anna. I think that she is sitting next to her mother, that is, my great-grandmother. 

Jeffrey Epstein lost 3 million dollars in Argentina

 

In 2018, Epstein lost 3 million dollars on his Argentine investments. He should have consulted with someone who knows the country (moi!) before betting even one dollar on Argentina. Argentine bonds were a very, very speculative investment. Year 2018 was brutal for Argentina, the peso lost 50% of its value, Argentine bonds collapsed, and country risk rose by over 600 points. He was a bad money manager.

JPMorgan paid a 250 million dollar penalty for managing the Epstein account. The reason is that he retired 40-80,000 US$ cash regularly, and he made suspicious payments to young women (2-10,000 US$) for tuition or educational expenses (when he had been condemned for sexual crimes). Epstein was a sex offender and had no regular business justification for his operations, and the bank knew it. 

Epstein needed to maintain the high-class island whorehouse to keep his connections, and the Bank did not dare cut his account because of them. In addition, he enjoyed the sex. It was the Giuffre girl who wrote a book and killed herself, who blew up his operation and caused his death. President Trump said that she had been working as a masseuse in his Florida hotel, and Epstein stole her. 

I have been married for 44 years and never had an extra affair. 

The Over-Empathy Mental Disease

Finland is without electricity, and people are burning firewood in mid of their cruel winter. Out of the belief that they had to save Earth, they based their electricity production on renewable systems, like wind and sunshine.  Winters are terrible in Finland, and the blades froze (pic), leaving the country powerless. Germany too chose wind power, which resulted unreliable and expensive. 

All the sustainable energy ideology is based on some kind of empathy with the Earth goddess, which is being hurt by artificial power generation like nuclear, oil, and coal. It seems a sick desire to be good and in harmony with the universe. But the universe is indifferent. It is an unfeeling mechanism. No prayers or human sacrifices will move it. Honi HaMeagel may sit forever in his circle in the sand to force god to send rain, but the universe is indifferent.    

Comparsa Ita Bera

 

The village of Alvear has grown since I worked there. Now they have a full-fledged Carnaval with comparsas (companies) of street dancers.  She is from the Ita Bera (piedra brillante in guarani) comparsa. Streets are asphalted, there are lots of cars and bikes, and a new generation I've never met. I chose this pic not because of the fantastic carnival dress, but because the girl lacks canines, a mutation I share. I have no idea how she could. 

Alvear is 103 years old and celebrates its history day. The pictures of its carnival show a strong Brazilian influence. 70-80 years ago, there was even a Jewish community, mostly Moroccan Jews, but now there is only a Jewish cemetery (that I never visited).  

Cartographie scientifique

Quand la France invente la cartographie scientifique par triangulation et que Louis XIV découvre que son royaume est plus petit que ce qu'on a montré à ses aïeux pendant des siècles : "Carte de France corrigée sur les observations des messieurs de l'académie des Sciences" (1682) 

France was ahead.