Dramatic Turnaround in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

All the important stock exchanges are closed this Christmas, except of course the TASE that follows the Jewish calendar. While all are predicting the deepening of the bear market into 2019, the Tel Aviv market thinks that the crash was a panic episode and with the discovery of the existence of an adult in the American government, Stephen Mnuchin, who took charge when every else had lost his head, all is well. Pic. Checking his pockets after a meeting with bankers. 

Dramatic Crash in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

Perrigo -30%, TEVA -10% and so. The structure of financial properties is collapsing. Also the most solid real estate companies like Ashtrom are sinking. Companies with heavy debt burden, like TEVA, may collapse under higher interest rates. The panic may draw the whole world into a recession. It was the American FED that started the avalanche and not Trump. The world watches with unease the lack of coordination within the American government. It will take months to regain confidence in financial instruments and America. Pic.: Tent City, Santa Ana, Calif. 2018

The Grand Prophet 12

The John Stennis being taunted by Iranian "The Great Prophet 12" exercise in the Hormuz Straits. The pic is from Associated Press, from the air.

It looks the Iranians lost their fear from America. No good. 

The machines have taken over

Mnuchin says the market is overreacting because of algo trading reacting to the Fed comments and the Volcker Rule. Meaning the machines have taken over Wall Street and we cannot do a thing to stop them. He thinks the market (that is, all the algo machines working simultaneously like and ecological system) will rebalance itself.
May be.  I think it will oscillate like stock exchanges in the nineteen century: panics followed by euphoria.

How this machine trading work?

Start with the essential elements such as evaluating datasets, accessing data APIs using Python, using Quandl to access financial data, and managing prediction errors. You’ll then cover various machine learning techniques and algorithms that can be used to build and train algorithmic models using pandas, Seaborn, StatsModels, and scikit-learn. You will build, estimate, and interpret AR(p), MA(q), and ARIMA(p, d, q) models using StatsModels. You will apply Bayesian prior, evidence, and posterior concepts to distinguish uncertainty using PyMC3. You’ll then utilize Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK), scikit-learn, and spaCy to assign sentiment scores to financial news and classify documents to extract trading signals. As you make your way through the chapters, you’ll design, build, tune, and evaluate feed-forward neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and convolutional neural networks (FFNNs, RNNs, and CNNs) using Keras to design sophisticated algorithms. You’ll also apply transfer learning to satellite image data to predict economic activity. Then you’ll apply reinforcement learning for optimal trading results.

Searching for a guru

At old age, I got to realize that all my life I was searching for a guru, a teacher, a leader. In seventy plus + plus years I met only a few and only for a short time. The most memorable is Chaim Ben Ezra, my boss on TAHAL, a miracle-worker who won the economic planning function in a number of Central American States, to the point that once said I own … (a country) and it was true. He was the person who paid me MORE than I thought was worth. Another one is … Buzaglo (he hebraized his name) who - metaphorically - took my trembling hand in difficult meetings with regulators and led me to victory, and paid well for my loyalty and dedication. In the last years, with wider contacts in the Israeli entrepreneur environment, I met others, but typically they are too busy to dedicate their time to me or I am so overworked with my urgent projects that I fail to them. On the other hand, many of my students and friends have identified ME as their guru, but I am too egoist to help the too much, and then, they feel (correctly) that I despise them. My life is done, so that is it. I am not trying to change anymore. 

The assault against Judaism

Scandinavian countries have forbidden circumcision, considering it a bloody attack against a powerless individual. Other countries forbid schita, the Jewish slaughter of animals without sedation. Britain had problems with Jewish schools, whose racial composition did not reflect the general population. Now we have the State of New York that intends to force the schools to change their curriculums to prepare the graduates to find good jobs. 

Jews are the most successful and wealthiest ethnic group in the New York State, if not the world, but clearly, some New York officials believe that Orthodox Jews need to do better. Although New York City public schools are not exactly an unbridled success story, the city contends it must intervene in order to ensure the yeshivas better prepare students for the workforce. 

Israel is no different. Every State desires an uniform and obedient population, serving in the army and working at "productive" sectors. Judaism has been under assault forever. 

NASDAQ smells recession

In the NASDAQ we are already in bear territory. The Fed killed all hope with its crazy policy of cooling down the American and world economy. I suffered cruel losses, I may not be anymore a Hanukkah-geld multimillioner…