Inverted Yield Curve: Prosperity in Sight

It happens that a Treasury bill that matures in three months is yielding 2.46 percent — 0.03 percentage points more than the yield on a Treasury that matures in 10 years. This is called inverted and it is said to predict Depression.  

I do not see the logic of it. If somebody is willing to pay MORE for a short term loan, that means that he needs money NOW and thinks that with time, he will prosper and easily pay back the loan. If somebody asks higher interest for a short term loan, it means that the coming months are uncertain, but he is sure that prosperity will arrive later. In my opinion, there must be a temporary shortage of liquidity and the people needs cash to bridge over these uncertain times. 

In fact, the vision of Israel Katz as Finance Minister and Betzalel Smotrich as Defense Minister is fueling the investors' animal spirits. 

Cat Mummies on the Hudson

Ancient Egyptians embalmed their cats and erected miniature pyramids to house them in the afterlife. A new Jewish fashion in New York is to share cemeteries and tombs with pets, something thought abominable in the past, even satanic (specially if the cat was black), but today it is an expression of love. Children have been substituted by these furry predators, that can inherit property and be interred with their "mother" under a fancy and expensive funeral monument. The discovery of luxuriously mummified cats on the Hudson, in the year 4000, will lead the discoverers to the right conclusion that Judaism had degenerated into a cat worshiping cult. 

Laugh is the Best Weapon

A senator ridiculed the ludicrous Green New Deal of Alexandria (the senatoress, not the Egyptian city). 

“GOP Senators are using their congressional allowances to print Aquaman posters for themselves to argue that a #GreenNewDeal saving our nation from climate change is a waste of money,” she tweeted.

She added: “Like many other women + working people, I occasionally suffer from impostor syndrome: those small moments, especially on hard days, where you wonder if the haters are right. But then they do things like this to clear it right up. If this guy can be senator, you can do anything.”

The Chinese Strategy

Chinese thought is subtle and I am just now waking up to the meaning of the Belt and Road project. It is nothing less than building "caravan seray" in the hostile wasteland peopled by barbarian peoples surrounding China (as they see it). They realized that they cannot depend on trade with Africa without "forts" in the land, entrepots, and secure maritime and land roads to move the merchandise. China decided to open up and has no fear of competition. They realized - like the Japanese before them - that closing in was dangerous and not in their interest. And controlling the main trade routes is a fantastic source of rent and power. Ultimately China will have to build a large navy and air force to protect their entrepots and trade routes, just as England did in the colonial era. Or pay to Americans to keep protecting them, as the Europeans and the Japanese are doing. 

Counterattack in Gaza

Apparently, Zahal is preparing a significant action against Hamas in Gaza. Land frontiers had been closed, schools suspended classes, train service stopped in the South, Ashkelon opened all public refuges, soldiers are concentrating in the border with Gaza. Hamas says that the missile on Moshav Mishmeret (north of my town) was a mistake. But seven Israeli civilians were hurt  in their sleep in the very heart of the country and we are before elections when no government can show weakness.

I am hurt too. The stock exchange fell, I am so tired that could do little work today. 

Wake Up Call

At 5.00 AM the town alarm woke us and I took my glasses and moved into the hardened room. Then we heard the boom and went back to the bed.

The Gazan terrorists had fired a missile to the Sharon, wounding seven innocent sleeping people. pic.

They are begging for retribution. It'll come.

Ancient Sea Monsters Coming Back

The stock exchange is falling into a vacuum. Many esoteric celestial signs have been observed in the night sky, yield curves crossing ominously and sinister red comets rising from the East.....yet Jim Cramer says :"get ready to ride the rough seas of artificial "intelligence" that say sell, sell, sell."

I'll have to think something. 

Thinking is painful. I much prefer to drink red wine. 

Gurus are saying deflationary assets should be held like long term bonds. I am over seventy and never saw deflation. How can be a shortage of paper?