The Effective Way of Reasoning

 98 y.o. Kissinger published a new book on international politics (warfare) based on AI and not conventional intelligence.  Based, as they are, on correlations and elaborate statistics, rather than on a sense of causality, ai’s decisions may seem otherworldly; when the stakes are high, they must be diligently validated. It means that asking "Why?" is not a sign of intelligence, but on the contrary, of low intelligence. AI is uninterested in causality, it just calculates correlation. It is an inhuman way of thinking and reasoning. It is superior, as shown in chess and go matches, it always wins. The pic is from 1950.

Too Many Projects

Yesterday had to participate in the meeting of a new project. Arrived late and missed half the meeting. They are expecting today the plan for the perforations for the piping. I did nothing, the day was spent chauffeuring around my dear wife and grandchildren (to the Funky-Monkey playground). Driving in Kfar Saba is starting to be more difficult than in Mexico City.   

My Many Names

In Hungary, Jewish children received an echte Hungarian name, like Atilla or Bela, and a Jewish Hebrew name. I have my original Hungarian name, Tibor, just like a Mongol chieftain, and in addition, 3 or 4 Hebrew names, like Jacob- Itzhak, etc. Among the Ashkenazim, it is common to grant another life to the souls of the dead by giving their names to newborn babies. In my town, I was the first baby born after the war. I was one baby while the dead were very many, so I had to give life to many uncles and relatives that did not come back from Auschwitz. As the years went by, I succeeded in doing my part in this magical chore.  My dear uncle Moyshi Abelesz was always asking my mother to remember the names of the family's dead, saying that he had run out of the names he remembered. The souls of the killed had been all metaphorically re-incarnated in young Jewboys studying Gemara in the Batey Ungarin of Jerusalem. 

In my case, the doctor in charge of the brisz had no experience with Jewish customs or whatever, and I was in danger of bleeding to death. Since it was well known that the Moylech HaMoyves, the Angel of Death, is not the sharpest pencil of the celestial drawer and is always confusing names and addresses, my parents cheated the Angel by giving me another name, Hayim, meaning Life. 

ZEBRAS

 Medical students have been taught for decades that, “When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don’t expect to see a zebra.” In other words, look for the more common and usual, not the surprising, diagnosis.

People with rare and chronic diseases spend years searching for answers:

“But you look normal”

“You’re too young to have so many problems”

“You’re too old”

“You can’t have that, it’s too rare”

“No one knows what that is”

The zebra became our symbol because those with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome and hypermobility spectrum disorder are the unexpected. “Sometimes when you hear hoofbeats, it really is a zebra.”

A group of zebras is called a dazzle. 

I never heard of this EDS and now, because of twitter, cannot stop thinking of it. Am I a misanthrope? I am not. But now, I imagine hearing the voice of my Uncle Ivor:  BASTA DE BOLUDEAR  - Fang jetzt an zu arbeiten!

Beating inflation

 Over the long-term stocks have produced the best gains after factoring in inflation, wrote Suze Orman. Bonds and cash struggle to keep pace with inflation; only stocks have a track record of earning more than inflation. Buying bank shares gives exposure to higher interest rates. She adds agriculture. 

I think real estate and art are also good. Stock gains are taxed 20-25%. Real estate gains and rent are not taxed. The minus of real estate is that it is illiquid. Maintenance and dealing with tenants are disagreeable.  

Garrulus or the Blue Bird of Happiness

 

This bluebird appeared this morning in my window. It is a good omen. It augurs happiness and success. 

For one, we have a new doctor and first thing she sent us to a complete blood test. All the parameters are normal, except low Vitamin D. I am taking daily drops. I am in remarkably good health for my age. 

If I control my blood pressure I may work five years more, till 2026. I shall focus on work, which will keep me alert and entertained. 

Those who know believe in Israel

 Those who know what is going in the world are the internet giants like Google, Microsoft, etc. The world's information passes through their computers, could be that they open letters and they make the connections, and extract conclusions. The fact that Google is investing and building server farms in Israel and laying a 500 million dollar optic fiber cable to Europe means that they believe in the long-term strength of this country and its civil order. It seems to me that they compared alternative sites, like Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Lybia, etc., and decided on Israel. Good. 

P.S.: On the above map, we are non-existent. Yet there are more Israeli unicorn startups than in all of Europe. We Jews are amazing.