Why the interest rate is so high

 No idea. Israel has one of the highest interest rates in the world, with light inflation. Generally, this fiscal measure controls inflation and curbs economic activity to produce a recession. People are not taking out mortgages or buying apartments because of the interest rate. Yet real estate prices are high. Israel is prospering and there is much money in the country - that is my gut feeling. An alternative take is that Smotrich is printing money to finance the war.

 

The ARM mystery

 Earlier this month, ARM reported a 39% increase in second quarter revenue amounting to $939 million compared with the corresponding quarter last year. According to its guidance, revenue in the third quarter of 2024 is expected to be $780-830 million. ARM faces competition from open-source enterprise Risk-5, which was founded at the University of California, Berkeley and allows the developer community to design chip technology, which companies can use free of charge. (Globes)

To me, this ARM thingie is a mystery, what it is doing that is succeeding so fast. Shall have to follow it.  

Pic.: Chief Rene Andrada Haas.

Lebanon in the Dark

 The National Electric Corporation just announced that it has suspended all supply. Not one drop of fuel. Hizballah has ruined the country.

Argentina: The Son of the President

 

The son of Alberto Fernandez who goes by the name of  Dyhzy (Daisy?) feels that the media is persecuting "her". She published a well-written letter asking to leave her alone. "I am 29 years old and am responsible only for myself. I have worked since I was 17 and have lived alone since I was 22. I have no home, no car, no means. I have only love ..."

Germany: Die industrielle Evolution

 

Because of self-destructive "greenness" (no to coal and atomic energy) as well as foreign sabotage of its access to Russian gas, Germany has been de-industrializing. The eupeptic look observes that "while de-industrialization is taking place in volume (and employment), the industrial contribution to national income has held up. The energy shock triggered a shift in Germany's industrial value chain from energy-intensive activities toward high-tech and high-margin activities. We believe it is better seen as an industrial evolution than a de-industrialization."

From

You may call it anything you want, but prosperity is not. I think it is terrible. 

Klein, The Fearless

 

What figure do you think we should pay most attention to here in Israel?

"The quickest barometer is the foreign exchange market. It provides an instant picture. If the exchange rate jumps, I know that something has happened. It’s the parameter that’s really closest to the markets."

If we look at the foreign exchange market, the shekel-dollar rate is fairly high. Will the depreciation continue?

"I hear many people say ‘the shekel will strengthen’ or ‘the shekel will weaken’ in the next month. There’s actually no way of deciding. Tossing a coin will do the job, really. In the long term, after the war, I believe that it will strengthen because of the structural factors in Israel. We have a surplus in the balance of payments current account. That is to say, in the end, more dollars come in than go out. In addition to that, we receive US aid every year. What’s more, the Bank of Israel’s foreign currency reserves stand at over $200 billion, and they’re the third highest in the world as a percentage of GDP. That’s a big safety cushion."

From Globes   "Harel's Ofer Klein is sanguine about Israel's macro position, sees strong growth once the war ends, and doubts predictions of deep Fed rate cuts. ...."but expectations are one thing and events are another. The market is in a state of manic depression. "

Needless to say, I agree. 

M16 Star talks

 The British Intelligence star Alastair Crooke just now gave an interview to Judge Andrew Napolitano. He is decidedly pro-Iran and anti-Israel, accusing Israel of having provoked Iran and waiting for a reprise and then planning a full escalation across the board to a World War III. He said that the timing is not good for the Democratic Party, but the West needs to reset because of its financial situation. He says that the real base of gold, oil,resources, etc. is too small to sustain the inverted financial pyramid. I understand he thinks that the West is too indebted and needs rewinding. These days Iran is carefully calibrating its attack on Israel, to avoid involving in the following phase the big powers - Russia and China. Israel, in his view, is definitely trying to provoke a general conflagration. 

The Jews like Smotrich are, he says, messianic. I always thought that Christians are the messianic cult, we Jews are rather skeptical about Deus-ex-machina salvation. Had been there, done that, enough once every two thousand years.