Investing in Europe

Michael A. Arouet

@MichaelAArouet

·

2h

House prices in the EU are no longer supported by rents. Given the demographic crisis Europe is heading into, one‘d have to be crazy to invest in residential real estate there. Many properties will become vacant and worthless.

So it looks. But also in America:

@atxREpodcast

Example of crazy regs: Have a house under construction in both the Austin and Travis County jurisdictions. So both City and County want to review and inspect. Austin - 12 active permits Travis Co - 3 active permits So, 15 permits to build a single home. And about 40 inspections.

Mossad Commentary on X

From twitter X 

SHABBAT SHALOM If you’re new here, a reminder: we unplug for 25 hours every Shabbat. Last week, when we plugged back in, the world had changed. Nicolás Maduro was gone from the stage. As we head into this Shabbat, I want to wish everyone peace, strength, and blessings. And yes, hope remains that this coming week brings accountability and an end to the reign of the Iranian Islamist regime led by Ali Khamenei, whether through retreat, exile, or history finally catching up, perhaps alongside old allies like Bashar al-Assad. Shabbat is about clarity, faith, and perspective. Wishing all is attainable. Shabbat Shalom to you all.

Indulgencies

לפי הבינה המלאעותי שלי קלוד, זה כמעט בוודאות זיוף או פרובוקציה אנטישמית. זה טקטיקה קלאסית שהייתה נפוצה .במיוחד בימי הביניים ובתקופת הרפורמציה - ליצור מסמכים מזויפים כדי להשמיץ את היהודים. "

קלוד מבהיר: המחירים האמיתיים של אינדולגנציות בכנסייה הקתולית היו משתנים, אבל הנה דוגמאות מתועדות:

במאה ה-16 (תקופת לותר):

• רצח, גילוי עריות, שוד - 2-3 דוקאטים זהב
• ניאוף פשוט - 1 דוקאט
• כהן ששכב עם נערה או נזירה - 4-5 דוקאטים
• שבירת שבועה - כמה גרושים

God's Army

Mobile Military Tora book. The Haredi Brigade.

Analysis of the last war

 From yesterday's The Marker, Sami Peretz: Index 35 of TASE from 7-10-23 to 28-12-25, that is, along the war. The first three weeks after the HAMAS attack, the bourse fell a little. But parallel to the following events, Israel's counterattack, investors recovered their confidence in the geopolitical stability of the country and injected ever-growing amounts of money into the bourse. I think/hope this trend will continue. According to the professional analysts, foreigners are investing so much that the sheqel is very strong, maybe too strong. 

Upgraded to Class OO

 
At TAU, I met a professor of geriatric psychology, and he divided his subjects into two groups: Old and Old Old (OO). The last group started at about age eighty. I'm advancing rapidly and will soon graduate. I definitely am feeling the change. 

Expensive Market

 

According to the time-tested Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is commonly referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio, this is the second priciest stock market in history, dating back to January 1871. The only time stocks have been more expensive than they are now is in the months leading up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 49% and 78% of their value, respectively, on a peak-to-trough basis.

Bottom Line: The market is expensive by historical standards, but that doesn't mean it crashes tomorrow. It could stay expensive for months or years. But the risk/reward ratio has shifted - there's less upside potential and more downside risk than usual.