Friday, September 29, 2017

Ancient Plastic Surgery on Siberian Idols


Source He has a massive nose with flared nostrils, wide open mouth, a bushy moustache and a beard. And yet all is not quite as it seems, for this sculpture, the most northerly of this genre in Asia, underwent an historic version of plastic surgery perhaps 1,500 years ago to give him a less Caucasian and more Asian appearance, according to experts.
So the original European look of the idol was changed to a more Asian countenance. Why would this happen?

'Judging by archeological finds found inside the grottos, this anthropomorphic idol was made during the Scythian time,' Yuri Grevtsov said. 'The first change came when the more European looking face was transformed to make it appear more Mongoloid was likely to have happened in the early Middle Ages with a shift of the population in the Angara River area,' he said.
 The redheaded round eye people was replaced by black haired slit eye ones. The look of the idols was changed accordingly. Some Greek philosopher said that the gods of the horses, if the horses had gods, would look like horses.

j's replacement already here

China: More than Aging

Timothy Taylor:  Here's a figure to emphasize the point. Europe and North America are aging. What's happening in Asia in the next few decades will be such a powerful demographic that it seems to require a stronger word than "aging."                                                                                     Stronger than aging? Does he mean dying?

He also points out that the Chinese Communist Party justifies its dictatorship on the basis of prosperity. What will happen when the economy stagnates as Japan's?

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Israel's Desalination Disaster

When we in the Water Authority were preparing the international bidding papers for five seawater desalination plants, the state-owned water corporation Mekorot had a fit fearing that its 70 years old monopoly was about to end. Israel was moving towards a desalinated water system and Mekorot was being left out of the future. Applying its considerable political power, it  demanded to be assigned at least one desalination project.

The Otzar, the Treasury, said: All right, although you are a subsidized State-owned fossil sorry corporation, you are allowed to submit competitive bids. If you are selected, you are in. I remember the meetings at the Water Authority where the elders laughed, and said that Mekorot cannot compete and if assigned one project (following the usual cost-plus system), it will be unable to build it. Mekorot answered that its minimum price was 10% above the private sector competitors. My bosses at the Water Authority gave the Ashdod plant project to Mekorot without bidding.

Now I realize that I should have protested forcefully against a decision that would cost tens of million dollars for the Israeli taxpayer just because Mekorot had to be involved in the desalination business. I had a strong case. But I am super submissive to authority and knew that my bosses were all tightly linked (sentimentally, socially, economically) with Mekorot. They all did occasional well-paid consulting work for Mekorot, as I did.

The project is an absolute disaster. It never worked and it requires an additional 50 to 100 million dollars of repair work to start producing drinking water. The Otzar and Bank HaPoalim (that financed part of it) are trying to sell the white elephant.

There was talk about organizing an investigative commission to learn the causes of disaster, but apparently there was so much corruption, many millions of dollars misspent or unaccounted for, by people that sits in the current coalition government, that it was silenced. If I was a different kind of person, I could have protested (and be fired, as I was anyway). But I am me. 


China's Failed Population Policy

"In recent years, the patriarchal Chinese state has launched campaigns warning unmarried urban females over the age of 27 of the perils of becoming “leftover women”. But in reality – due to sex-selective abortions, a traditional preference for sons and the country’s one-child policy – there’s a far larger cohort of “leftover men”.

Official state media put the male-to-female ratio at 136:100 among unmarried people born since the 1980s. Professor Jin Tiankui, an influential sociologist in China’s policy-making circle, predicts that by 2020 there will be 30 million more men than women in the 24–40 age bracket." From The Guardian

The desire to get married is a powerful economic motivation that underlies China's prodigious advancement. The Chinese will be wealthy and unhappy. 

Monday, September 25, 2017

Readying for the Fall of North Korea

Reading among the line, it seems to me that already talks are in progress for the post-Kim North Korea arrangements. The issues to be addressed are:
* Who will deal with the remains of North Korean nuclear facilities?
* Millions will be running for refuge in a short time. They have to be processed, housed, fed and resettled.
* The fall of the regime will cause a vacuum and war between army factions. The transition to a stable government that promises elections must be short.
* The long term political order in the peninsula must be worked out, with participation of the Big Powers and South Korea.
I think a well prepared transition can be fast and will not cause WWIII.

Friday, September 22, 2017

The Tanach on Bitcoin

The Economist writes that the answer to the bitcoin is in the writings of Kindleberger. I have read it. And no.

The answer is in the Tanach. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value in silver or other precious metal. In the Gemara, a coin like that is called ASIMON, a token. Only gold and silver coins are considered money, the asimon is merchandise.

Those Jews were not stupid. The bitcoin is not money, it is merchandise. It has no intrinsic value, it is worth exactly what the buyer is ready to pay for it. In money.

If merchandise, it must be taxed. Each transaction will pay VAT (17% in Israel) and its export/import will be regulated. Since each bitcoin contains a ledger of transactions,  its taxing presents no difficulties. It cannot be hidden.