Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Population

Liu Cixin in his monumental trilogy writes about the next thousand years of wars with the Trisolars (the graph illustrates the Three Bodies Problem) and end of the universe (collapse in the optimist scenery or eternal expansion in the worst of the cases). The oeuvre is full of quantitative calculations and marginally it presumes a steadily falling Earth population. In that context, it is natural and uneventful.  
177,000 babies were born in Israel between April 2017 and April 2018.  Israel has the highest birth rate in the developed world, with an average of 3.11 children per woman.  The distant runner-up is Mexico, with only 2.2 children per woman.  The average fertility rate for countries like France, the U.S., Britain, Spain, and the Netherlands is less than two children per woman.  The birth rates for Jewish and Arab Israeli women were identical (3.13 children per woman) for the first time in history during 2015. About thirty thousand new immigrants arrived, most from the former Soviet Union, France and the USA. 

The calculated correlation between economic performance and population growth is 0.7 which is huge. Economic performance is related to national IQ.  The Jews in Israel are the exception to that law. 

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