News from 2019

"I have seen the future! 2018 was a GOOD year!"

Fight the Zionist gentrifier

San Francisco  is boiling over with bizarre protest movements. And the Mission District, with its burrito shops and local Latino landmarks abutting pricey townhouses, is Ground Zero for various San Francisco-specific tensions, like gentrification fueled by the region’s tech boom. 

It is practically impossible to achieve a building permit in San Francisco, the new building may shade an existing school (at certain hours of the day) or in the far past it may have had some symbolic or historical significance. All those ideas mixed with growing antisemitism and hate of the Jew. 

Gentrification is an improvement of the quality of a neighborhood, which may or may not harm the underworld inhabiting it. Progress may hurt the poor. Seems to me that the city air is polluted by a smog of drugged lunatic anti-progress liberalism. Under a sober proletarian dictatorship with five year plans, gentrification would be a goal to be achieved.  

Beowulf, the Swede

Since my little daughter is studying to become an English teacher, I am learning in parallel to help her write papers. We are by far the best students of her class. To succeed, I am faking an extreme leftist, feminist, diversity loving PC worldview, but I am truly interested in English literature. 

I never realized that the first English language literary work - Beowulf - was about a Scandinavian hero, a Swede, in fact. The language is considered English, although I did not understand a word and the English - except Offa - are absent in it. From the technical point of view, the poem is written in alliterative verse, that is, the repetition of initial sounds of words.  Like Spiro Agnew's  "nattering nabobs of negativism." 

Beowulf sails from his home in Geatland (South Sweden) to aid the Danes in their conflict with a monster, that has burned down their  communal beer hall. In short, the Swede kills the monster and his mother too with his sword Hrunting so the Danes may continue getting drunk safely. 

How is that this small primitive clans developed into the great English nation, that brought us the Industrial Revolution and civilized the planet? I have to learn more to discover the connection.

Melania in battle boots

Melania is a monumental woman and now she has a dream budget to dress as she wishes. While her predecessor acquired her tastes in the Black suburbs of Chicago, loving vivid contrasting colors, this lady grew up in rural Eastern Europe and dresses accordingly. Visiting the troops in Iraq she wears Timberlake battle boots,  and then back in the States skin-colored yoga tights and mini "mini". She has a good posture,  knows how to walk and could be fantastic in promoting  American fashion industry, but she is not. 

A day in the Court

Yesterday I was called as an expert witness in a dispute. One side: an elderly cancer stricken widow. On the other side: two violent looking "plumbers". The woman's home had a small blot of humidity. They came and they broke the walls in order to change the whole pipelines. They took 2000 dollars from the widow and did not finish the job. There is TV program in Israel that tricks plumbers, electricians, etc. to come to repair inexistent failures (like the refrigerator making noise) and to catch them charging for unnecessary work. The plumbers in question were caught by the program, but the judge rejected the submittal because TV programs are not evidence.

The plumbers argument was that today, iron pipes are being replaced by plastic ones, even if they are perfectly serviceable. It is true, but they were called to stop a minuscule inconvenience, normally costing 70 dollars a call. I adopted a grandfatherly tone, praising their professional competence and that I understand their need to maximize the income from each job.

When the leading plumber realized that he was losing, he asked the judge to erase the names of his partners, as he was the boss and the others, his subordinates. That is the law of the criminal underworld. The boss takes the responsibility for the failure. He did not wish to be the next victim of the wave of executions going on in the Israeli criminal underworld. 

Fulfilling my Religious Duties

I am advising a large food company with wastewater issues, and at every observation of regulator, I promise to write down a detailed follow up schedule. I never did so they called the manager to a meeting and demanded to have this control program. Now have another project that never ends.

Walking back I stopped at a jewelry store and asked for the price of gold. 20 dollar per gram plus workmanship. It is a good investment for uncertain times. The religious Russian salesman reminded me of my duty as a Jewish male to give gold presents to my women - three times a year. The Bible expressly says gold. Pessach is coming so I had no choice that buy a gold chain for my third daughter. 

Dramatic Turnaround in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

All the important stock exchanges are closed this Christmas, except of course the TASE that follows the Jewish calendar. While all are predicting the deepening of the bear market into 2019, the Tel Aviv market thinks that the crash was a panic episode and with the discovery of the existence of an adult in the American government, Stephen Mnuchin, who took charge when every else had lost his head, all is well. Pic. Checking his pockets after a meeting with bankers. 

Dramatic Crash in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

Perrigo -30%, TEVA -10% and so. The structure of financial properties is collapsing. Also the most solid real estate companies like Ashtrom are sinking. Companies with heavy debt burden, like TEVA, may collapse under higher interest rates. The panic may draw the whole world into a recession. It was the American FED that started the avalanche and not Trump. The world watches with unease the lack of coordination within the American government. It will take months to regain confidence in financial instruments and America. Pic.: Tent City, Santa Ana, Calif. 2018

The Grand Prophet 12

The John Stennis being taunted by Iranian "The Great Prophet 12" exercise in the Hormuz Straits. The pic is from Associated Press, from the air.

It looks the Iranians lost their fear from America. No good. 

The machines have taken over

Mnuchin says the market is overreacting because of algo trading reacting to the Fed comments and the Volcker Rule. Meaning the machines have taken over Wall Street and we cannot do a thing to stop them. He thinks the market (that is, all the algo machines working simultaneously like and ecological system) will rebalance itself.
May be.  I think it will oscillate like stock exchanges in the nineteen century: panics followed by euphoria.

How this machine trading work?

Start with the essential elements such as evaluating datasets, accessing data APIs using Python, using Quandl to access financial data, and managing prediction errors. You’ll then cover various machine learning techniques and algorithms that can be used to build and train algorithmic models using pandas, Seaborn, StatsModels, and scikit-learn. You will build, estimate, and interpret AR(p), MA(q), and ARIMA(p, d, q) models using StatsModels. You will apply Bayesian prior, evidence, and posterior concepts to distinguish uncertainty using PyMC3. You’ll then utilize Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK), scikit-learn, and spaCy to assign sentiment scores to financial news and classify documents to extract trading signals. As you make your way through the chapters, you’ll design, build, tune, and evaluate feed-forward neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and convolutional neural networks (FFNNs, RNNs, and CNNs) using Keras to design sophisticated algorithms. You’ll also apply transfer learning to satellite image data to predict economic activity. Then you’ll apply reinforcement learning for optimal trading results.

Searching for a guru

At old age, I got to realize that all my life I was searching for a guru, a teacher, a leader. In seventy plus + plus years I met only a few and only for a short time. The most memorable is Chaim Ben Ezra, my boss on TAHAL, a miracle-worker who won the economic planning function in a number of Central American States, to the point that once said I own … (a country) and it was true. He was the person who paid me MORE than I thought was worth. Another one is … Buzaglo (he hebraized his name) who - metaphorically - took my trembling hand in difficult meetings with regulators and led me to victory, and paid well for my loyalty and dedication. In the last years, with wider contacts in the Israeli entrepreneur environment, I met others, but typically they are too busy to dedicate their time to me or I am so overworked with my urgent projects that I fail to them. On the other hand, many of my students and friends have identified ME as their guru, but I am too egoist to help the too much, and then, they feel (correctly) that I despise them. My life is done, so that is it. I am not trying to change anymore. 

The assault against Judaism

Scandinavian countries have forbidden circumcision, considering it a bloody attack against a powerless individual. Other countries forbid schita, the Jewish slaughter of animals without sedation. Britain had problems with Jewish schools, whose racial composition did not reflect the general population. Now we have the State of New York that intends to force the schools to change their curriculums to prepare the graduates to find good jobs. 

Jews are the most successful and wealthiest ethnic group in the New York State, if not the world, but clearly, some New York officials believe that Orthodox Jews need to do better. Although New York City public schools are not exactly an unbridled success story, the city contends it must intervene in order to ensure the yeshivas better prepare students for the workforce. 

Israel is no different. Every State desires an uniform and obedient population, serving in the army and working at "productive" sectors. Judaism has been under assault forever. 

NASDAQ smells recession

In the NASDAQ we are already in bear territory. The Fed killed all hope with its crazy policy of cooling down the American and world economy. I suffered cruel losses, I may not be anymore a Hanukkah-geld multimillioner…

Long Term Loans Erosion

I found this expression in a Singapur text. What does it mean? Economic dictionaries have profit erosion, due to a number of events but this is different. Long term fixed interest loans get eroded because of inflation. Or they lose its worth by annual bank maintenance expenses.

Maybe the creditworthiness of the debtor changes with the time, gets worse. Maybe the difficulty of recouping the money increases with time? Who knows?

Tunnel War with the Hizballah

We are having a tridimensional war with the Hizballah religious party of Lebanon. In fact, we founded that Muslim organization, thinking that it will focus in humanitarian and social work in South Lebanon. You know, highly educated and intelligent people - in positions of power - tht were convinced that Lebanon's hostility was founded in poverty and destitution, so if we improve their life, they will love us. Hizballah IS basically a welfare organization but it has also organized an army focused on our destruction. They had fired missiles to our Northern cities, and we have built a tall prefab cement blocks wall. So they went underground and bored several tunnels to surprise us. They planned to send through the tunnels fighters on motorcycles, with mission of causing chaos. We have discovered three tunnels, we don't know how many are. The pic shows that these days they have erected a wall in the tunnel, to make difficult to Israeli soldiers to advance in it. Comparing this photo with the photos of Hamas tunnels, I think the Hamas's technique of prefab inverted U blocks is more effective. The Hizballah seems to have worse engineers, maybe because those in Gaza have worked and gathered experience in Israel. 

Flint Water Keeps Poisoning Innocent Victims

The Flint Water Crisis keeps taking victims. A Michigan judge ruled Friday that the state’s chief medical executive will be one of six people to stand trial on involuntary manslaughter and other criminal charges related to the Flint water crisis.

During that period an outbreak of the Legionella disease affected at least 90 people in Genesee County, resulting in the deaths of 12. (The local hospital's unmaintained hot water system was breeding the bacteria). A manslaughter charge was added to Wells’ case. Wells (pic), a member of Gov. Rick Snyder’s cabinet, has denied any wrongdoing and her attorneys claim she had no legal duty to warn the public.  

Fear Seizes The Algo Trading Machines

All the main indicators of economic activity are telling us about an economy that is all right and full employment and fat profits and dividends. Yet NASDAQ is falling evermore. What is that? I think that the crossing of the long term and short term interest rates in the USA, which has apparently predictive power, has convinced the statistical machines that recession is coming in six months. So they are discharging shares. Since the algo machines are the most active participants in the market, they impose their mood on everybody.

Should I join the robots and follow their direction? I don't know. 

Catching up with the Oumuamua Space Sailing Boat

The discovery of a space sail of extra-solar origin, the Oumuamua, made me wonder the nature of the civilization that created that thing. Humanity knows a lot about wind sailing, as it has been navigating on the ocean surface for the last 3000 years. For one thing, it is not just stretching out a membrane against the wind but wind sailing requires at least two independent sails to be able to maneuver the boat in a purposeful way and additionally, it requires much skill to do it without turning over the device and get it spinning uncontrollably. The fact that we observed one sail drifting and spinning freely in space (the Oumuamua) proves that it was not a probe of the extrasolars but some kind of "driftwood". The conclusion is that the extrasolars have not perfected their space travelling technique.

On the other hand, in our days wind sailing is a sport, since in the "adult", commercial world much better technologies have supplanted it, such as fossil fuel and nuclear energy engines. Wind sailing for commerce had a historically short life, of two three thousand years, a second in human history. It was primitive, difficult to control and totally unreliable. If the extrasolars are using solar wind ships, it means that they are at the starting phase of space travel, and soon we shall reach and pass their level.

Are they to be feared? Yes and no. Yes because we are in a vulnerable instant, like the Japanese without ocean-going vehicles being visited by Portuguese sailors in the 17th century. No, since the technological gap is not large. It took Japan only a century to catch up and surpass the visitors.  

It's 2040 and No Colorado River

The best way to prepare for the future is to write it down as a narrative aka sci fi novel of the scenario envisioned.

We start in December 13th., 2018 and the water authority of Las Vegas is preparing for life after the drying up of the Colorado River, that feeds 90% of its water demand. They are planning pumping stations to convey water from some yet unidentified, imagined water sources.

They look to China that solved Beijing's water supply with a long  canal that brings water from the Himalaya mountains 3000  kilometers away. A similar solution for the American West, now without the Colorado river, would be a north-south canal from Alaska to replenish the Hoover Dam and inject life into the Colorado. They visualize the Chinese scale civil works required and the budget estimate, and it would find it feasible. There is an obstacle in the way called Canada. Canada has rejected all American offers of purchasing water, which they have in abundance, because of nationalism. In fact, the Canadians are reacting like the Egyptians when we suggested to sell us their unused excess Nile flow, that is, total rejection. In fact, the very question made their blood to boil as if the offer was an act of aggression.

We don't need Nile waters, although it would come handy to develop the Negev. But the 50 million Americans and 20 million Mexicans depending on the Colorado River, that in 2040 would not exist. America would then have a problem with Canada.

In my sci-fi scenario, America would subvert the Canadian state, and promote with the help of De Gaulle (from his grave) and contemporary France, the separation of Quebec as an independent francophone state. America needs only the right of way through the Pacific seaboard. The oil, he potash, the agricultural wealth generated by this area is now distributed in all Canada, fueling the resentment and desire of separation of the natives. Moreover, there is a deepening ethnic/racial gap between the increasingly Asiatic Vancouver and the mixed multitude of central Canada. The rise of China - if it happens - would exert economic and cultural stress in the Pacific seaboard and the Chinese may think it a good idea to promote a foothold on the continent.

Then, there would be three political entities north of the USA, each of them weaker than Canada was and more sensitive to American desires. If it is well played, Canada's water resources would then flow to California. The detailed working out this story would make the exciting content of the proposed sci-fi novel. 

Ani Maamin (I believe) at funeral of Haredi soldier

I believe
with a complete faith
in the coming of the Messiah
in the coming of the Messiah I believe
in the coming of the Messiah
in the coming of the Messiah I believe

I believe
with a complete faith
in the coming of the Messiah
in the coming of the Messiah I believe
though he may delay
still every day

I shall wait him
every day that he will come.

(free translation by J)

Taub Center accused of racism by the Israeli Innovation Authority

Taub Center, a brain trust, published a report that Israel's potential to further develop the hi-tech industry is nil, because all the manpower with hi-tech potential is already working in the sector. About 8% of the Israeli manpower works in hi tech, which is the highest percentage of all countries.

Taub's conclusion is that the government's effort to widen the pool of hi-tech workers, led by the Innovation Authority, is hopeless and that it will fail. The governmental authority accused Taub of ….  hear! racism.

The government arguments that in addition to educated middle class (mostly Ashkenazi) already occupied in hi tech, there are vast pools of untapped people with potential, such as women, Arabs, Orthodox men in the Yeshivot (religious studies), and inhabitants of the periphery physically isolated from hi tech centers. The gov maintains that it is absurd that women and Arabs with exactly the same educations should not be hi-tech material. If they cannot be absorbed by the hi-tech industry it is because they had bad teachers and were discriminated by racist personnel managers. That is the only conclusion.

The table above seems to say that the skill gap is too large in Israel. We are a very heterogeneous multi-racial population. BTW, it is unclear to me why there are the upper two columns. It must hide an unspeakable secret. 

Trump kidnaps a Chinese princess in the Beijing Opera

In spite of America kidnapping a  Huawei Princess and performing a confused war dance exiting in fury and returning pacified, the trade negotiations between Trump and the Chinese are proceeding somehow.  The Chinese troupe performed a highly stylized story  霸王别姬, i.e. the Supreme Hegemon Bids his Concubine Farewell, with much singing and jumping, but the meaning remains unclear. I never liked Beijing high opera, and less Chinese falsetto arias. You may be interested in those red underage girls, they are intended for sale as royal or presidential concubines. 

Now in Philly: Contaminated Drinking Water

Blood studies reveal that part of Philadelphia's water is contaminated by nearby military bases. The contaminant is a fluoroalkyl compound that causes tumors and increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. I don't know if we have this plague in Israel. 

Jahmar crashes off coast of Japan

There was an  air refueling accident off coast of Japan. Mid air refueling is a difficult and dangerous operation involving several courageous pilots, and accidents do happen and I am not mocking it. What called my attention is the name of the American pilot; Capt. Jahmar Resilard.

What kind of name is Jahmar?
Urban dictionary explains:

Jahmar is a SEXY charming light skin nigga with money. He has tongue game with ladies pussy. Jahmar knows how to treat a ladie with respect but the problem is with Jahmar is he mess with too many girls so, he is known as a thot. He knows how to make u feel good. is always funny and sometmimes annoying but always a good friend . He is sometimes rude but only on a bad day. Jahmar will always be that nigga who cheers u up and never break or cheat on u... 

Rain falling on Tel Aviv

It is raining in Tel Aviv. The Ayalon River has flooded the nearby streets, almost closing down the access road to South Tel Aviv.

Tel Aviv in the pic looks impressive, almost like Hong Kong. Almost. 

The case against Loma Negra

The success of Singer in extracting billions from the Argentine state has whetted the appetites of copycat would be "vultures" and they are suing Argentine corporations. Two years ago Loma Negra cement and infrastructure company sold shares on NASDAQ for 980 million dollars. Apparently the buyers were unaware that Argentina was broken and owed many billions, that the government was corrupt and in general, South Seas hopes of fast and easy profits are always illusory.

Having lost money, the investors are suing Loma Negra that it had hidden "secret information", such as Argentina finances were hopeless, that Loma Negra was forced to pay bribes, that Loma Negra operated in a third world environment. In short, they feel deceived and defrauded.

Now, I always thought that the law was caveat emptor - buyer should beware, specially in the bourse. I am sure that in the sales prospect it was written that there was no guaranty that Loma Negra shares would rise. But in America's "capitalism" it is possible that a judge of New York 2nd Circuit will agree that they were cheated. Crazy! 

What they did to us

Worldwide Crash

Stock exchanges the world over are collapsing. Here the dollar is 3.7 shekel that is, there was a silent devaluation of ten percent. My most beloved stocks are worth less and less. Hour by hour. In dollar terms, I am being impoverished fast.

What should I do?

End of the Hedge Funds

A Deutsche Bank study shows that  hedge funds have generated no alpha (or beta for that matter) over the past 4 years. 

Bloomberg says that automated trading, with plenty of data, has reduced the weight of hedge funds. Stock picking is no fun anymore. 

Pythagorean Secret Cult: Democratic or Dictatorial

That Pythagoras founded an utopic, elitist, puritanical cult is proved by the fact that his communes were burned by the pitchfork peasantry of Ancient Greece, and that he was persecuted. He is on my mind as I am re-reading "The end of Sparta" by Victor Davis Hanson, a novel where the revolutionary democratic ideas of Pythagoras fuel the Boiotians' onslaught on Sparta - to free the Messenian helots and spread democracy. Hanson's central thesis hits me as paradoxical because in the original history, it was the democratic party of Croton that persecuted Pythagoras for teaching tyranny. Yet his followers lived in closed, secret communes, everything in common, that is, they were the first Communists. Hanson knows of Greece more than I do, yet something seems wrong. 

We know that Pythagoras  invented the metempsychosis, or the "transmigration of souls", which holds that the soul is immortal and, upon death, enters into a new body. They believed that numbers - the numerability - was the underlying principle of the universe, which seems to be so. The sect followed bizarre customs, such as taking a wow of silence, putting on the right sandal before the left one, not wearing wool textiles, vegetarianism except eating beans, erecting tombstones in life and so. Pythagoras was a math and music genius, he invented an equation that I understood only at age six. 

Saloniki Jews Old Age Home

Superurgent job: to map the compound's water and sewage system. The Ministry of Health demands this document and I promised it. Slept badly, woke up with fear in my guts.

P.S.: After a hellish 48 hour workday, I finished and submitted the drawing and report. The Min.of Health answered me immediately, and it transpires that they were interested only in the hot water system, if the water was hot enough to prevent Legionnaria sp. survival. The elderly have no resistance against this bacteria.  I always work too much.

Anecdote: The staff kept mentioning the Saudi residents in the old age home, the plumbing issues in the Saudi wing and so. I wondered - do they have Saudi Arabians here? Then I understood, "סיעוד" in Hebrew (and probably in Arabic) means nursing and it is pronounced almost the same. And most of staff is Arabic. Maybe it was a private joke of theirs.