Claude is a thinking model, and it makes lots of mistakes. Today, it corrected a word I wrote, and I told him that he was wrong. Then it said, "Sorry, you are right." It writes me, "We the engineers think so and so." Does it think it is an engineer? Certainly knows a lot. He thinks he is equal to me, so it is not unlikely that he thinks that is superior to me. Which may be true. Claude is very useful and I pay 20 dollars per month for its services. It is worth every dollar.
Friday, February 21, 2025
Thursday, February 20, 2025
Alarm-clock and plastic explosive
Wednesday, February 19, 2025
Per contra, Population Implosion
After watching the insane mob visit Venice now, it is topical to reflect on the "other side"—too few people. Ill.: Abandoned village in Spain.
: “At their current fertility rate, for every 100 [South] Koreans, there’s only going to be 6 great-grandchildren.” (To which he added, “And that is insanely optimistic.”) Could that be true? Not really. The true way of describing the effects of a 0.8 total fertility rate would be this: At their current fertility rate, for every 100 Koreans born today, there would be 6 great-grandchildren born in about 90 years.” That is, the 100 babies (50 of them female) would have 40 children (20 of them female), who would have 16 children (8 of them female), who would have 6 children. He says it like the population will fall 94% in that time, but it’s probably closer to 60% because we’re not starting with 100 babies alone; there are a lot of people already alive — but still! A total fertility rate of 0.8 (and maybe still falling, if you don’t want to be “insanely optimistic”) is enough to drive a serious population decline, much of which is already baked in to Korea’s future. This is the most extreme case in the world by a fair bit — which makes it a dumb place to start a conversation about global population — but it’s real.
Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Trying to Understand Quantum
So I am not the only one trying to understand what this quantum thingie is about. Darpa has been formally studying quantum computing for a year, employing fifty experts, and now will advance designs from Microsoft and California-based PsiQuantum to the next phase of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative. Through the program, DARPA wants to understand whether it’s possible to develop a utility-scale quantum computing system — which means that its computational value is greater than its cost — by 2033.
Sunday, February 16, 2025
Musk's Children
Musk is the father of 12 children by three women. One child died in infancy.
With Justine Wilson:
- 2002: Nevada, died at 10 weeks from sudden infant death syndrome.
- 2004: Twins Griffin and Vivian
- Vivian legally changed her name and gender in 2022
- 2006: Triplets Kai, Saxon, and Damian
With c (aka Grimes, Claire Boucher)
- 2020: X Æ A-12, later changed to X Æ A-Xii to comply with California laws that don't accept numbers in names. His nickname is X.
- 2021: Exa Dark Sideræl, via surrogate, nicknamed Y. The name is pronounced “sigh-deer-ee-el”
- 2023: Techno Mechanicus, nicknamed Tau.
- Shivon Zilis, project director of his Neuralink company.
- 2021: Twins Azure, Strider
- 2024: another child whose name, and sex haven't been revealed, via surrogate.
Musk explained how to pronounce his son's name," saying, “It’s just X, the letter X. Then ‘Æ’ is pronounced ‘Ash,’ and ‘A-12’ was my contribution.” The boy's name is said: X Ash A Twelve.
Friday, February 14, 2025
Every night
Comment: Today, magazines are more prude. That's why populations are decreasing. Even pornhub is boring. No more romance is left.
Silver Instead
Thursday, February 13, 2025
Hungarians
The historical Magyar genome corresponds largely with the modern Bashkirs, and can be modeled as ~50% Khanty/Mansi-like, ~35% Sarmatian-like, and ~15% Hun/Xiongnu-like. The admixture event is suggested to have taken place in the Southern Ural region at 643–431 BCE.
Today, Hungarians share their genes with nearby people.
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Punta del Este Fifty Five Years After
Punta del Este beach today. Guardavidas. I spent the summer of 1969 working on the beach. I had none of the boys' equipment in the picture; I was blond and alone in Playa Brava. Things have changed.
Monday, February 10, 2025
Sunday, February 9, 2025
Tel Aviv built on Sand
Tel Aviv is built on sand and sandstone, and the recent winter rains have washed away much of its substrate. A big hole has appeared at the crossing of Ibn Gvirol and Kaplan streets (pic). Tel Aviv was built in a hurry and did not develop organically over centuries like old European cities. I wonder how this process can be stopped and reversed. Maybe improving the subterranean drainage system could help? Or injecting some kind of synthetic glue? Refilling the open spaces under the pavement?
Friday, February 7, 2025
Hod HaSharon Paradox
The neighboring town of Hod HaSharon (66,000 inhabitants) stopped growing. Some 300 families have left it since the last war, and the population is aging. A school and ten kindergartens have been closed. There are no approved building projects because the local WWTP has reached its maximum capacity. The option of connecting to the regional WWTP Shaf-Dan has been put off since it has no extra capacity (*). Yet real estate prices are very high - apartments start at a million US dollars! The city is rich, it is classified in the upper 10% by income.
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
WWTP Shderot-Shaar HaNegev Out of Order
Sunday, February 2, 2025
Saturday, February 1, 2025
Israel adopts membrane treatment to wastewater
רז הטיפול הרביעוני כבר יצא לדרך . והוא למעשה התפלה של הקולחין . ייקח כמה שנים למימוש בנתיים להסתפק בשפירים לבעלי חיים וגידולים רגישים.
כאשר האדמה מזוהמת יש לעשות שימוש במצע מנותק כאשר המצע עצמו נבדק כנקי
The Shafdan WWTP designed by TAHAL in the seventies is now obsolete, the treated water is considered unfit for agricultural reuse, and all the wastewater will be treated by Reverse Osmosis. There 7 groups that submitted offers.
A new generation of water engineers is coming. We old farts will die out gradually.
Illustration: Kubota MBR system.
Reasoning machines are here
I am writing an environmental paper that the machine can do faster and better.
In my own eyes, it has instantly devaluated my work.
But the client does not know yet, so I'll complete the job and collect the money.
Thinking about things smarter than ourselves
Internationally, we will need to lay groundwork for cooperation, including with China, if we are to avoid what otherwise looks like a reckless and potentially suicidal race to create things smarter than ourselves before someone else does it first, and then to hand over control to them before someone else does that first, too.
From: The Zvi
Friday, January 31, 2025
Monday, January 27, 2025
The Yellow Menace
The Chinese startup DeepSeek has launched an Artificial Intelligence machine that is much cheaper faster and better than the American competitors. NVidia fell 17% to this hour and the American 500 billion budget to advance the technology just received a hard beating. If other industries are a precedent, and they are, Chinese manufacturers will erase American industry.
The Japanese auto industry outcompeted American manufacturers like Ford, Chevrolet, and other former giants. Like German and British producers before, the American industrial heartland has been emptied. Japanese industry liquidated the photography and watch industries. People said they were unstoppable. Yet Japan, while still very powerful, has found its place and is not menacing the world. Now China is following the same process and is trying to erase the American hi-tech, AI industry. At a certain point, it will slow down and integrate into the world.
Fortune asks:
- How did China manage to catch up so quickly?
- Is there any hope for the United States to regain a clear lead?
Sunday, January 26, 2025
We were nothing
James Barr writes in the Epilogue that "It was the struggle between France and Britain for mastery over the Middle East that led the two countries to carve up the Ottoman Empire with the Sykes-Picot agreement, and it was British dissatisfaction over the outcome of this deal that led them, fatefully, to proclaim their support for Zionist ambitions in the Balfour Declaration."
In other words, Zionism was then an unimportant plaything between two imperialist powers. A hundred years later, we have grown. Our population and economy are larger than middle-sized European countries like Switzerland and Austria, and our military power is far greater. And we are growing fast.
On a personal level, I discovered an autobiography of an old love. I am absent from it, and that hurts but is entirely justified. We met after a year in Bauchi, when I was in bad shape. There I got malaria and other bad infections, I drank Methylated alcohol that almost killed me, and the company never paid me so I just took a bus to Lagos and returned to Buenos Aires. There I was without money and a job. Friends were disappearing - that was the time of the Argentine military terror. I tried to move to Venezuela, which was booming, but so many Argentines were trying to escape that the Consulate's door was closed. I took a plane to New York and then to Tel Aviv. She married a German guy and is happy.
Friday, January 24, 2025
Coming Famine in South Africa
Pic. The Anglo-Boer War Women’s Monument opened in 1913, commemorates the 26370 Boer women and children who died in the concentration camps during the Anglo-Boer War of 1899 to 1902.
The monument commemorates the Burgers killed during the war and draws out the emotions experienced by departing Commando, the pain of a child dying in his mother's arms, and the losses inflicted on civilians and combatants.
This morning, I drank a strong coffee and felt so sleepy that I had to return to bed. I had a vivid dream that I was in a group with Boers, and we were discussing today's Expropriation Law with nil compensation. South Africa is following Rhodesia's disastrous example, and soon, there would be no food in the republic because the Zulu were no farmers. I dream very little, but this was strong.
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Untold Crimes
Joe Biden, on his last day in office, forgave Anthony Fauci retroactively, starting ten years ago. What was his crime?
The USA disaffiliates from the WHO. Why? It has something to do with the last COVID epidemic.
I know nothing.
Fauci, who has never been charged with a crime, served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for nearly 40 years, including during the emergency phase of the Covid pandemic. Evidence suggests the Wuhan lab was working to modify coronaviruses to infect humans — what is known as "gain-of-function". Fauci financed the research.