Elbit published Q2 2026 before the open this morning, and this is a "sell the news" reaction to results that look strong on the headline but thinner underneath.
The headline numbers actually beat: revenues $2,287.1M vs $1,972.7M a year ago, backlog at a record $32.0B, GAAP EPS $3.61 and non-GAAP EPS $4.14, against a consensus of roughly $3.24 EPS on $2.22B revenue. So why the 7% fall?
The quality of the beat. Buried in the release: the Knesset's new R&D incentive law (March 31, 2026) was applied for the first time, with a cumulative year-to-date impact of about $40 million — roughly $0.80/share, recognised in this quarter. Strip that out and the "beat" is largely gone.
Tax is now a structural headwind. The effective tax rate went from 5.6% to 16.4%, driven by the OECD Pillar II global minimum tax. That is permanent, and analysts will now rebase forward EPS on a mid-teens rate.
Written by Opus 5.
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