The best self-help book I read is The Rules. Although it is written specifically for young ladies desperate to catch a husband, deleting the technical specifics of seduction, the spirit of the book is a genius. The concept consists in having a clear, mechanical set of rules and follow it with NO deviation. I bought it for my daughters but I am the only one who has read it (I am not looking for Mr Right!). It embodies the spirit of Mr Wilson of IBM who prescribed to his salesman down to the angle of their ties (have not seen one in years), and what sentences to voice and forbid any creativity. The fabulous Fund of Funds, created by a Jewish psychologist turned speculator to sell a saving vehicle to American servicemen stationed in Europe (that was in the sixties), had a written dialogue to execute with prospective clients. Salesmen had to memorialize and say exactly what was written. The idea of Fund of Funds was that it would diversify the risk incorporating the diverse strategies of the individual funds. Of course it was a Ponzi but most successful. My point is that success is achieved by strictly following a formula, the Rules, and avoiding distractions and creativity.
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
Monday, August 12, 2019
Argentina's 100-year bonds
In 2017, Argentina sold $2.75 billion worth of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds that mature in 2117, with a coupon of 7.125%. Investors placed 10 billion dollars’ worth of orders for the paper. Argentina had defaulted six times within the past 100 years and that didn’t deter these intrepid buyers.
At 7%, investors recoup their investment in just 12 years. The investors expected that Argentina would be solvent for at least 12 years, not 100. It seems they were over-optimist, only after one and half years and already we have issues. Anyway, Argentina still will be there in 2117 and even, possibly, paying its debts. I would not bet on it, but who knows?
Pic.: Unemployment. A 50 y.o. relative of mine has been unemployed for the last 9 months.
Pic.: Unemployment. A 50 y.o. relative of mine has been unemployed for the last 9 months.
De Mal en Peor: Argentina
The Peronist party won the elections in Argentina, something that surprised everybody. Immediately, the peso lost 50% of its worth as people ran to buy US dollars, and in New York, Argentine bonds lost up to 60% of their worth. This is a real panic. It means that world markets expect Argentina to default in its loans, and sink again into typical South American chaos. The population was suffering and famished under President Macri and voted for the Peronists, and for the return of the mythical times when Argentina was rich and Evita sent everybody a free pan dulce and a bottle of sidra for the New Year. The pic shows the thousands of desperate faithful camping in front of the Iglesia San Cayetano, the saint to be prayed to for bread and jobs. The San Cayetano church is in my barrio, I knew that it was there but never paid it any attention.
I friend just wrote me that Argentina is in its way to become another Venezuela.
Sunday, August 11, 2019
Israel Participating in the Maritime Security Operation
For some mysterious reason the Chinese are breaking the US led sanctions against Iran, and are smuggling Iranian oil out of the Gulf. The Royal Navy and Israeli forces are patrolling with the Americans to catch them. People does not know it yet, but we are in war with the Chinese. In the USA vs China "trade" war, which is NOT a trade war, we are definitely an US ally.
Friday, August 9, 2019
Diversify or not to Diversify
The stock exchange has apparently reached a top and the world enters a period of recession. England already has negative GNP growth, America is not far away and China stopped growing fast. Is real estate in Israel a better safe haven for my savings? There is tremendous amount of building here yet prices are not falling. The population is growing and will grow, not only by natural growth but immigration as the rest of the world slows down. May be I shall do it.
“In an environment in which the market’s not growing, it’s hard to see where capital gets a return. We have $15 trillion of sovereign debt around the world trading at negative rates. If you have that many alternatives that look so unattractive, it means capital going to where no one dared to go before and is pulling down rates."
A small apt. in Kfar Saba sells for 1400000 sheqel (400000US$). Down payment 200000 $ and the rest 20 years mortgage at 3%. The profitability of the deal depends on the price I can get for the apt. in 20 years. I presume it will be worth 600000 $ since (1) building permits are not going to be easier to get in the future, (2) population is growing and the number of family units ("units" = old maids needing an apt for themselves and their cats) is in ascendance, and (3) they are not making more land, and the Shomron is not a solution and Jordan is already overpopulated - there is nowhere to expand, (4) The Arabs of the Triangle are desperate to leave Kalansuwa and move into Ashkenazi neighborhoods and they are paying extra for the privilege of a Jewish neighbor.
I think it is time to diversify. Now, if real estate prices should fall, I'll still have to bear the mortgage payments of 4000 shekel a month. I would like to be more intelligent to see the future more clearly. In the past, I moved like a sleepwalker and never failed. I always knew what to do and did it, but now I've lost my self-confidence. I never needed these calculations to know that was to be done. Anyway, money is not important, so the whole thing is entertainment. I am not going to be here in 2040.
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
The Colonial Paradigm
Thousands of university papers analyze current social trends in the light of colonialism. We Jews in Israel are the ones most suffering from this stereotyping. In the academy, colonial settlers are the worst, the most sadistic societies bent on nullifying autochthonous populations.
The English are archetypical colonials and slavers. Are they? The Brits in the 18th Century invested enormous resources in patrolling the African Coast, fighting slaving ships and hanging their captains. Patrolling such a large coast with sailing ships cost the Brits a large expense, but for decades they paid this morality tax till the slave trade was exterminated. Now, how can anyone accuse British colonialism of causing slavery?
Not to forget what the slave trade was about. Prosperous farmers in American South, in Cuba and Brazil needed manpower. That was before transatlantic trade and its legal framework was in place. Today, when a farm in California needs manpower and pays reasonable salaries, the manpower will arrive: millions of desperate famished Mexicans and even Africans. No frontiers will stop them. There are unfulfilled jobs in Europe: millions of Africans will literally swim the Mediterranean. Trade was not yet organized in the 17th Century, so the manpower transfer took place on a less voluntary basis.
European colonization is being conceptualized today as cruel and exploitative. Yet the colonizers themselves thought of themselves as civilizing underdeveloped areas, making large personal sacrifices. Thousands of religious people, including Catholic priests moving among savages, sacrificed themselves to teach, humanize and advance them.
European nations regarded the colonies as a financial and a military burden. I have studied two English colonies in detail, Nigeria and Palestine, and Britain never extracted a penny from them; on the contrary, they were bleeding white the mother country's budget. The Palestine Mandate was organized to be self-financing, and emphasis was given to tax collection and a balanced colonial budget, including reserves for the retirement of colonial employees. That was the idea. When England lost its investments and became tired and poor after WW2, it just decided to cut them off and abandoned without sentiments its colonies. Even India with its million Anglo-Indians was allowed to go. In sober analysis, the Brits realized that the real point of having India as a colony was to sell them textiles and manufactures, and that India would continue buying British even after their independence. They still do.
It was the same story with North American colonies. The French organized the Indians to wage war on the British colonies. The expense of defending them was unconscionable for the Brits, and the ungrateful settlers would not tax themselves for their defense. When the settlers declared their desire to go it alone, the colonial power faked resistance and happily let them be. Ben Franklin was sent to Paris to offer an anti-Britain alliance and ask them to de-fund the Redskins, the French hated the Brits but understood that the Brits were gone. They loved Franklin and Franklin loved Paris' courtesans so much that he long overstayed his mission. They sent him a souvenir, a large statue of a semi-nude French lady. It is still standing.
In short, the colonial paradigm exists only in the imagination of contemporary scholars of Black etc. studies. Trying to impose this structure on the Jewish settlement in Eretz Israel forces them to make bizarre mental somersaults. Jews are not exploiting the natives, on the contrary, they are refusing to employ them. Jews are not imposing their culture, language, religion or sex on Arabs, they would like nothing best than having no contact with them. The "colonizers" extract no benefits at all from the "colonized". The colonial model, a totally imaginary structure, cannot be applied here. Yet they insist to the point of absurdity, because the "colonial settler model" is academically approved and there is no other available.
The only aspect of the settler/colonized model that I find relevant is the psychological. Franz Fanon, a Caribbean Black psychoanalyst, described in the fifties how the visible inferiority and impotence of the colonized drives them crazy and psychotic. Fanon diagnosed the mental state of the colonized as sick, and to cure it proposed armed warfare. He himself joined the Algerian rebellion against the French. But Franz Fanon books are unfashionable and forgotten. Let me end quoting him:
“Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong. When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted. It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything that doesn't fit in with the core belief.”
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