The Bell Imperative

 Clark published a new research paper concluding that "aspirations that by appropriate social design, rates of social mobility can be substantially increased will prove futile. We have to be resigned to living in a world where social outcomes are substantially determined at birth."

Clark studied the genetic changes in the English population on the basis of surnames. In a few hundred years the surnames of lower/criminal class have disappeared, replaced by descendants of the upper/richer classes. In our generation, it seems to work on the reverse. 

Why this happened in South East England and not in Bulgaria? England was/is a stable, well-governed society for centuries, where violence does not pay. Bulgaria was a frontier lawless region, where violence and brutality was survival necessity.  

44 billion dollars stolen

 Alberto Fernandez the President of Argentina ordered a criminal inquiry against the government of Macri. In 2018 Macri received a 44 billion US$ loan from the IMF. Fernandez's incoming government received an empty Treasury. This is, he said, the largest public funds robbery in memory. "De acuerdo con eso, instruyó a las autoridades para que formalmente inicien una querella criminal contra quienes fueron "partícipes de la mayor administración fraudulenta y malversación de caudales que nuestra memoria recuerda". This is unprecedented in Argentina, incoming governments never investigate former administrations, so THEY will not in turn be investigated. 

Mobs Braying

Paul Singer, "El Buitre", thinks that the Fed’s current iteration of quantitative easing paired with trillions of dollars of stimulus to counter the pandemic are setting things up for a fall. Rampant inflation will shock policy makers, stock pickers and bond investors, alike.

“‘Trouble ahead’ is signaled by a rare combination of low-quality securities, staggering valuation metrics, overleveraged capital structures, a scarcity of honest profits, a desperate dearth of understanding evinced by the most active traders, and economic macro prospects that are not as thrilling as the mobs braying ‘Buy! Buy!’ seem to think."

Giovanni Batista Lulli

 

The Oracle's Latest חוכמה

 In 1958, Phil Fisher wrote a superb book on investing. In it, he analogized running a public company to managing a restaurant. If you are seeking diners, he said, you can attract a clientele and prosper featuring either hamburgers served with a Coke or a French cuisine accompanied by exotic wines. But you must not, Fisher warned, capriciously switch from one to the other: Your message to potential customers must be consistent with what they will find upon entering your premises. At Berkshire, we have been serving hamburgers and Coke for 56 years. We cherish the clientele this fare has attracted.

CENTCOM

Following the American airstrike against Iranian targets in Syria, Ninth Air Force (Air Forces Central) Commander, Lt.-Gen. Gregory M. Guillot completed his first visit to Israel on Friday. Guillot was hosted by his Israeli counterpart, Commanding Officer of the Israeli Air Force, Maj.-Gen. Amikam Norkin.  The scene reminds me of the Warsaw Pact general visiting Budapest, with the difference that the Russians were the hated occupying army of Hungary.

It is bad to lose one's independence and become part of a foreign power, but since Suez we know we are not truly independent. It is better this way.

P.S.: At ten, my dream was to have a WWII  Army jacket, something like Guillot is wearing. When arrived as refugees in Vienna, the Americans distributed Army surplus and my uncle Gyuri got one.   

America Strikes

Feigning indifference, the Biden administration bombed last night an Iranian facility in Syria. There is continuity in American foreign policy. As one IAI man told me once, America is an empire, and like a big ship, it cannot turn around on the spot, it needs space to change direction. In the pic, a Big Bad Black Man, I am starting to like him.