Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Fossil fuels are killing us

 


A severe decline in childbirths has occurred over the past half-century, which will lead to considerable population declines, particularly in industrialized regions. A crucial question is whether this decline can be explained by economic and behavioral factors alone, as suggested by demographic reports, or to what degree biological factors are also involved. Here, we discuss data suggesting that human reproductive health is deteriorating in industrialized regions. 

Widespread infertility and the need for assisted reproduction due to poor semen quality and/or oocyte failure are now major health issues. Other indicators of declining reproductive health include a worldwide increasing incidence of testicular cancer among young men and alterations in twinning frequency. There is also evidence of a parallel decline in rates of legal abortions, revealing a deterioration in total conception rates.

Subtle alterations in fertility rates were already visible around 1900, and most industrialized regions now have rates below levels required to sustain their populations. We hypothesize that these reproductive health problems are partially linked to increasing human exposures to chemicals originating directly or indirectly from fossil fuels.

In my opinion, economic and behavioral factors CAN explain much of the phenomenon. Notwithstanding, this theory is interesting. 

Is air pollution linked to birth rate?  I know of no research linking them. The most polluted air was in England but no pop decline. The signs of decline started in France in the 18th Century. Greece and Rome in the antiquity suffered from the same problem and they were not burning fossil fuels. It is a mystery.

Sunday, June 12, 2022

I dont believe in complicated reasoning


Suddenly, the stock exchange is crashing.  I wonder why. Bloomberg explains 

All of a sudden, the market’s back in “good-news-is-bad-news” mode. Any positive readings on the economy, particularly those on employment and inflation, can be interpreted as signals that the Federal Reserve will have to stay aggressive with its rate-hiking regime

The explanation is too complicated. I do not believe it is so. 


Saturday, June 11, 2022

Ukraine Refugees in the New York Times

 

The pic surprised me. Then realized that the skin coloring app was being applied by the New York Times to trick its readers. Do they intend to impress their readers that Ukrainians are colored? Why?

Friday, June 10, 2022

Nuclear Priesthood

 


A nuclear priesthood has arisen in Russia. From portable churches to the consecration of weapons systems, the Russian Orthodox Church has been integrated into every facet of the armed forces to become a vital part of Russian national security, politics, and identity. This extraordinary intertwining of church and military is nowhere more visible than in the nuclear weapons community, where the priesthood has penetrated all levels of command and the Church has positioned itself as a guardian of the state's nuclear potential. Russian Nuclear Orthodoxy considers how, since the Soviet collapse in 1991, the Church has worked its way into the nuclear forces, the most significant wing of one of the world's most powerful military organizations.

Dmitry Adamsky describes how the Orthodox faith has merged with Russian national identity as the Church continues to expand its influence on foreign and domestic politics. The Church both legitimizes and influences Moscow's assertive national security strategy in the twenty-first century. This book sheds light on the role of faith in modern militaries and highlights the implications of this phenomenon for international security.

PSS: The priest reminds me of the Elbonians of Dilbert's world.

Thursday, June 9, 2022

Negative Dollar Interest Rate

 


Inflation in the US has reached 8% while the interest rate is 3-4% so the government is subsidizing and stimulating investment and economic activity. People are buying real estate with credit, which raises the prices. Since the sheqel is linked to the dollar, we are in the same situation. I think I have maximum prudent debts, yet I need to be alert to opportunities. Ashkenazi Jews live easily to 90 so I have a little more time to play the game. The pic is of my ancestral hometown. My grandfather owned much of the real estate there. It did no good to him. When the Nazi army occupied Hungary, this small provincial town had to erect a closed space - a ghetto - and move all Jews there. One day they had to march through the main street to the train station and travel to the regional ghetto and then, in plumbed cattle wagons, to Auschwitz in Poland. This complicated operation was organized by Adolf Eichman and his small staff. All the operations worked smoothly and in two months 600,000 Hungarian Jews were deported and annihilated. This happened when the Germans already had lost the war. It is painful just to imagine it. 

Israelite Marching Order




























 Parashat Beha’alot’cha occurs just over a year after the Exodus from Egypt, with the nation of Israel still encamped around Mount Sinai.

Two weeks ago, Parashat Bamidbar cited G-d’s commanding the layout of the Camp of Israel (Numbers 2). The Mishkan (Tabernacle) was in the center of the Camp, the various Levite families in close proximity surrounding it, and the Twelve Tribes surrounding them.

The time of encamping around Mount Sinai had finished, and the Jewish nation was beginning its trek home towards the Land of Israel.

The Torah details the order of breaking camp (10:14-28):

The first to leave Mount Sinai and journey towards Israel were the three Tribes encamped east of the Mishkan, led by Judah.

Then the Mishkan was taken down, and the Gershonite and Merarite Families, who carried it, followed.

Then came the three Tribes in the south, led by Reuben.

Then came the Kohathite Families, who also carried the Mishkan, and whose responsibility it was to erect it at the next station before the rest of the camp arrived.

Following them came the three Tribes on the west, led by Ephraim.

And finally, bringing up the rear, came the three Tribes to the north. Dan was the hindmost of all the Tribes. The Torah describes the Tribe of Dan as מְאַסֵּף לְכָל הַמַּחֲנֹת (10:25), the exact meaning of which is somewhat obscure.

ArtScroll translates as “the rear guard of all the camps”. JPS and Rabbi Joseph Hertz favor the translation “the rearward of all the camps”. Rabbi Joseph Hertz explains, “the work of such a rearguard would consist in collecting stragglers, in taking charge of such as had fainted by the way, and in finding and restoring lost articles”.

210 years earlier, when the sons of Israel (literally the sons of Israel, Jacob’s sons) stood before Tzafenat Pa’aneach, the governor of Egypt, whom they did not yet recognize as their little brother Joseph when he had framed the youngest son Benjamin and threatened to hold him as a slave for the rest of his life, it was Judah who seized the initiative and stepped forth, risking his own freedom and indeed his very life to intercede on Benjamin’s behalf (Genesis 44).

That responsibility should have fallen to Reuben, the oldest of the brothers. But it was Judah who demonstrated true courage, leadership, and readiness for self-sacrifice for his brother.

And therefore it was Judah who became destined for royalty when their father Jacob/Israel blessed all his sons (Genesis 49:8-12).

And so, as befits the Tribe of Royalty, Judah led the way towards the Land of Israel.

Source.  There was no disorder, the migrating Israelites were organized like a Roman legion. I think that the meaning of the Tribe of Dan being the "measef" מאסף is clear. In the army, it means the last in marching order. It does not mean that they collect anything. They are pushing the whole column ahead. Maybe I am wrong. 

 

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

AI is poisoned with bias against dark skin

 


Media Lab researcher Joy Buolamwini says she’s found that face-analyzing AI works significantly better for white faces than Black faces.

She tested software from Microsoft, IBM, and the Chinese company Megvii to see how well each of their face-scanning systems did at figuring out whether a person in a picture was a man or a woman—a task all three are supposed to be able to perform. 

If the person in the photo was a white man, her study found, the systems guessed correctly more than 99 percent of the time. For black women, though, the systems messed up between 20 and 34 percent of the time—which, if you consider that guessing at random would mean being right 50 percent of the time, means they came close to not working at all.

Google famously misidentified pics of Africans with gorillas. (Note: the pic to the left IS a real gorilla). No one wants to offend dark-skinned people, so they developed a program to automatically change the skin color in photographs. The European כוסית girl you may be considering on a dating site may well be in reality a Zulu or Andamanese. Not that this is bad, but if they start manipulating the appearance of people on the internet, they may end up giving clear blue eyes or yellow hair to everybody. Fat will be slimmed down and short people will become taller. And so on. 

Alternatively, Nordic persons will be changed into Africans, like President Donald Trump who was shown with strange orange skin in the media. Or healthy people will be given the appearance of sickness, like recent pics of Vladimir Putin.  But illusion will not make us free.