Mearsheimer Warns about the Dynamics of Escalation

 

The dynamics of escalation in wartime are similarly hard to predict or control, which should serve as a warning to those who are confident that events in Ukraine can be managed. (Mearsheimer)

I heard much about escalation during the Cold War. I have to re-read On Escalation (Herman Kahn, 1965) and Escalation and the Nuclear Option (Bernard Brodie, 1966). In those contexts, it especially referred to war between two major states with weapons of mass destruction during the Cold War.  

Kahn's Scale:

IV. TRADITIONAL CRISES
Basic Description and Definition
The Rungs of Traditional Crises
Rung 4. Hardening of Positions-Confrontation of Wills
Rung 5. Show of Force
Rung 6. Significant Mobilization
Rung 7. "Legal" Harassment-Retortions
Rung 8. Harassing Acts of Violence
Rung 9. Dramatic Military Confrontations
A Recent Example of a "Traditional Crisis" Scenario
V. INTENSE CRISES
Basic Description and Definition
The Rungs of Intense Crises
Rung 10. Provocative Breaking Off of Diplomatic Relations
Rung 11. Super-Ready Status
Rung 12. Large Conventional War (or Actions)
Rung 13. Large Compound Escalation
Rung 14. Declaration of Limited Conventional War
Rung 15. Barely Nuclear War
Rung 16. Nuclear "Ultimatums"
Rung 17. Limited Evacuation (Approximately 20 per cent)
Rung 18. Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
Rung 19. "Justifiable" Counterforce Attacks
Rung 20. "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or Blockade

According to the above, the world is already in Rung 20 in the Russia-USA conflict, and very near regarding China.

The Colorado River is Drying Up

... while the main worry of the leader in charge is Indian Water Rights.  

I started to follow the West water supply problem twenty years ago when I was teaching in Baja California. The American Californians had decided to save the smelt sardine by channeling enormous volumes of drinking water down the Sacramento River and the Pacific. I imagined that the West desperately needs Israeli water engineers. Since then, their obsession with woke issues developed to the point that they handed the water sector, that is the Reclamation Bureau, to a Philippine-born social activist, who is very passionate about native children with no running water but has no idea of hydrology or water policy. 

"One of my proudest professional achievements was working through legislation that settled the water rights claims for seven Indian tribes and pueblos in New Mexico, Arizona, and Montana,” Touton says.

“You see a kid who doesn’t know any better, that water should be coming out of their tap and not hauling it from their trucks every week. Now, I lead the agency that is implementing that law and building the water projects that bring water into their home. It’s a great privilege.”

The situation in the West is dramatic and nothing is being done, just waiting for the rains. 

"She comes from the Philippines; she knows what it is to be poor. She has a big heart in addition to being very smart. It’s not about ambition or money; it’s having that passion. The water issue now for poor communities is huge. And I’m not worried because Camille is there.”

Is Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton the right person in the right position at the right moment?  

World Order

 At last, finished Henry Kissinger's heavy book. His thesis is that a set of small nations, each one sovereign over a territory, will find safety in a Westphalian-type arrangement, while two blocks of allied countries are doomed to fight a big war. The Westphalian Peace lasted 200 years, while the block system caused WWI and WWII. Why does it have to be like that? 

Self-walking Dog

 

Shiba Inu

 

The Shiba Inu (Bush or Small Dog) is a Japanese breed, genetically close to the wolf. It is aggressive and will hunt down smaller pets. 

Red Dog

 

The Earl of Enniskillen created this beautiful Irish Setter type. It is not particularly intelligent but it is full of playful energy. They are predisposed to epilepsy. 

Depressed