Mearsheimer Warns about the Dynamics of Escalation

 

The dynamics of escalation in wartime are similarly hard to predict or control, which should serve as a warning to those who are confident that events in Ukraine can be managed. (Mearsheimer)

I heard much about escalation during the Cold War. I have to re-read On Escalation (Herman Kahn, 1965) and Escalation and the Nuclear Option (Bernard Brodie, 1966). In those contexts, it especially referred to war between two major states with weapons of mass destruction during the Cold War.  

Kahn's Scale:

IV. TRADITIONAL CRISES
Basic Description and Definition
The Rungs of Traditional Crises
Rung 4. Hardening of Positions-Confrontation of Wills
Rung 5. Show of Force
Rung 6. Significant Mobilization
Rung 7. "Legal" Harassment-Retortions
Rung 8. Harassing Acts of Violence
Rung 9. Dramatic Military Confrontations
A Recent Example of a "Traditional Crisis" Scenario
V. INTENSE CRISES
Basic Description and Definition
The Rungs of Intense Crises
Rung 10. Provocative Breaking Off of Diplomatic Relations
Rung 11. Super-Ready Status
Rung 12. Large Conventional War (or Actions)
Rung 13. Large Compound Escalation
Rung 14. Declaration of Limited Conventional War
Rung 15. Barely Nuclear War
Rung 16. Nuclear "Ultimatums"
Rung 17. Limited Evacuation (Approximately 20 per cent)
Rung 18. Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
Rung 19. "Justifiable" Counterforce Attacks
Rung 20. "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or Blockade

According to the above, the world is already in Rung 20 in the Russia-USA conflict, and very near regarding China.