Winter Blues

I got the winter flu and feel down. I almost did no work the last week. The war is too long, the media is overflowing with anti-Jewish hate. HaAretz and X are disgusting. Many reserve soldiers have been in Gaza for two months. 

I am planning the drainage system of a farm in Hemed, near the airport, and the internet has no information on rainfall intensity. Before this war, such data was available. Now it has disappeared. I feel a change in the internet. 

Much in the media is fake. The pic above is, they write, a tunnel shaft. It could be a rainfall drainage facility. They say the army is preparing the flooding of the tunnels in Gaza, but the pics in the media are unconvincing for this professional. The infrastructure of Gaza city must be broken and leaking. The papers say the filling the tunnels may take weeks and endanger aquifer quality. If really there are 500 km tunnels, we need 500,000 cu.m. seawater or somewhat less. But it implausible that HAMAS had excavated manually such volume of earth and sand. It is amazing that Gazans are not escaping by sea or by land to Egypt. Their Arab brothers may be shooting them on sight.  And in Gaza they are fed by the UN forever. American commenters say that the 30,000 strong HAMAS is largely intact. It has not surrendered and is fighting.   

Doing what it's got to be done

 

The world media is full of indignation against the brutal battle to erradicate HAMAS from Gaza. They said nothing (they approved) the murderous Palestinian attack against peaceful, hardworking villages in their neighborhood. The burnt, they raped, they took hostages, they exhibited naked Israeli girls in the streets of Gaza. They and the world with them, enjoyed the humiliation of the Jews. Now we are trying to make sure that those scenes can never be repeated. I approve because it shows that we are alive and our will to survive in this horrible Middle East is strong and decisive. Zahal is doing what it has to be done if we are to live. 

BLU-109 is what we needed

 The BLU-109 bunker buster hardened penetration bomb used by the USAF is designed to smash through concrete shelters and other hardened structures before exploding. The BLU-109 has a 25mm thick steel casing, filled with 240 kg of Tritonal. It has a delayed-action fuse. America has given us a few of them so we may destroy Iran's nuclear factories.

The Gaza War didn't hurt us much

 

After the terrible shock of the massacre of Re'em Festival, Israel declared war on HAMAS and expected a concerted attack by its enemies. Some 400,00 reserves were mobilized and re-trained during a month while Gaza was being destroyed from the air. Foreign countries sent emergency rescue planes to evacuate their citizens from Israel. Even Argentina sent a Boeing. People, alarmed, bought dollars and its price jumped to 4 sheqel per US dollar. 

Almost two months later, we are negotiating with HAMAS, the expected surprise attack by Iran did not happen (thanks to America that sent one of its battle groups to the area), Western governments strongly supported Israel in its hour of need, the economy is recovering fast and the dollar (see graph) is below its pre-war level. Muslim protests all over the world frightened European people,strenghtening the Right. The "extreme" right won the elections in Holland. 

Maybe the war did not damage us too much.

Civilization's Disease

 South Korea's fertility rate has dropped to a record-low 0.70 in the second quarter of 2023, according to the latest government report, in yet another stark indicator of the deepening demographic crisis in a nation already grappling with the world's lowest birth rate.According to the monthly demographic and census report released on Wednesday by Statistics Korea, the country's statistics body, there were 56,087 newborn babies in the second quarter, a 6.8 percent drop from the same period last year. The count represents the lowest since 2009 and marks 91 months of consecutive decline in births.The country's population has been decreasing for 43 consecutive months, according to the report. In June alone, the number of newborns totaled 18,615, while recorded deaths stood higher at 26,820.

Ultimatum from America's Best & Brightest

         From the WSJ:   As Israel began exchanging Palestinian prisoners for Israeli moms and children, Harvard was dealing with its own ultimatum.

A week ago pro-Palestinian students gave university President Claudine Gay until Monday to respond to three demands. They were: that Harvard divest from any investments in “illegal settlements in Palestine”; that the university reinstate a proctor suspended for taking part in a mob that surrounded and harassed a Jewish student; and—of course—a promise from Harvard that “pro-Palestinian students and workers engaging in non-violent protest” would face no disciplinary action.

There you have it. The ethos of our modern best and brightest in a nutshell: We are taking a brave stand—but we demand that we pay no price for it.

Why I am losing on Potash?

 Why? I cannot think a reason. Brasilian farmers were not long ago paying 1200 dollar per ton, but the israeli potash company ICL is getting paid 250 by the Indians. Brazil imports 98% of its potash. The use has increased from 10 kg/ha. to over 100 kg/ha. with the accompanying increase in agricultural yields per hectare. Canada is investing billions in the development of its Jensen mine, the Australians are not much behind. The demand is begging for fertilizer because of the Ucraine war. 

 And now we have the Teimanim menacing our maritime  traffic on the Red Sea from Eilat to Mombay. The shares of ICL have sunk into Earth's mantle, devoured by its boiling iron/nickel inner core.

Major players in the Potash market include The Mosaic Company, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, K+S AG, Israel Chemicals, and Uralkali. The global potash market will grow from $22.04 billion in 2022 to $23.03 billion in 2023 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the chances of global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, at least in the short term. The war between these two countries has led to economic sanctions on multiple countries, a surge in commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions, causing inflation across goods and services and affecting many markets across the globe. The potash market is expected to grow from $30.61 billion in 2027 at a CAGR of 7.4%.

On another note, ICL broke ground yesterday on their $400mm LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) plant in St Louis. When both phases are operational by 2025 they will produce 30,000 metric tons of LFP annually. Current China price for a metric ton of LFP is 83,000 yuan, or $11,500/mt.

Why I am losing on Potash?