Lying Models

This is not me, I copied it from a chat. Models do these things

 

AI speaks fluent Halandzsa

 

Rather than showing the capability for generalized logical inference, these chain-of-thought models are “a sophisticated form of structured pattern matching” that “degrades significantly” when pushed even slightly outside of its training distribution, the researchers write. Further, the ability of these models to generate “fluent nonsense” creates “a false aura of dependability” that does not stand up to a careful audit.

As such, the researchers warn heavily against “equating [chain-of-thought]-style output with human thinking” especially in “high-stakes domains like medicine, finance, or legal analysis.” Current tests and benchmarks should prioritize tasks that fall outside of any training set to probe for these kinds of errors, while future models will need to move beyond “surface-level pattern recognition to exhibit deeper inferential competence,” they write. __ Fluent Nonsense

Halandzsa is a secret language invented by Karinthy Frigyes in Budapest in the 1920s. Two people are chatting when a third, uninvited fellow comes near to take part in the conversation. The original participants continue as before, but introduce invented words and sentences, making the third person wonder what they are talking about and in what language. After a while, he gives up and leaves. They were speaking "Halandzsa". AI learned the art and speaks it fluently. 

The Islamic Brotherhood of Gaza

 ZAHAL's General Staff meeting. For some reason, one of the emblems on the wall has been obscured. The main item: War in Gaza. The Mission: Destroy HAMAS, the Islamic Brotherhood. I feel that the world will vilify us as in the Middle Ages, when we were accused of having killed God.   

Investing in Rare Earths Mining

 I am exploring the possibilities. The sector is overinvested, but the American Defense Department has ensured a high price (double the Chinese) and will buy every gram. A good site to start. 

Spending on Computers

MICROSOFT 1Q CAPEX SEEN AT MORE THAN $30 BILLION.

I am planning to upgrade my computer (CAPEX 700 dollars)

I have never seen such a ferocious competition as the AI product.

Investing Advice

Artificial intelligence (AI) investing is still one of the best growth stories in the market. The amount of money flowing into this space is incredible, and with the results that many companies have announced recently, it's clear that this success will be ongoing for some time.

The Economist explores my long-time conclusion: the relationship between risk and return simply is not there.

Instead of pricing assets by their variance, investors price them according to two fears: fear of loss (FOL) and fear of missing out (FOMO). Whereas risk is measured by variance, FOL refers only to its downside (or “semivariance”). An asset inspires FOMO if it has the chance of wild, unexpected gains that those shunning it might miss. This is measured by the “skewness”, or asymmetry, of its return distribution.

BuSab Instructions

 

Incredible, during WWII, there was a real Bureau of Sabotage (BuSab). See two pages of their manual of sabotage. The “Simple Sabotage Field Manual,” published in 1944 by the Office of Strategic Services (the predecessor to the CIA) to train citizen-saboteurs in Nazi-occupied Europe.