Expensive Market

 

According to the time-tested Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is commonly referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio, this is the second priciest stock market in history, dating back to January 1871. The only time stocks have been more expensive than they are now is in the months leading up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 49% and 78% of their value, respectively, on a peak-to-trough basis.

Bottom Line: The market is expensive by historical standards, but that doesn't mean it crashes tomorrow. It could stay expensive for months or years. But the risk/reward ratio has shifted - there's less upside potential and more downside risk than usual.

Somaliland - new ally in the Red Sea

We are the first to recognize Somaliland. No one recognized it before us, because many countries have regions fighting for independence (Euzkadi, Cataluniya, Biafra, and so on) and don't want to establish precedents. Somaliland was, for a period, part of the failed state of Somalia. 

                       Barbera is a nice commercial port we could use on the route to Eilat. There are nice seaside resorts to compensate for those we gave up on the Sinai Peninsula.  

Welcome to Serene Sarovar Premiere Hargeisa, a modern, Sharia-(and Kashrut)-compliant, family-friendly hotel located in the heart of East Masala, just 2 km from Hargeisa International Airport. 

Israel's defense

We are preparing for the next war. Netanyahu plans to invest $300 billion over the next decade to develop Israel's military industries. The goal is to eliminate Israel's dependence on foreign powers for spare parts, ammunition, and other critical supplies.

This strategy echoes lessons from the Six-Day War, when France under De Gaulle imposed an arms embargo in the midst of Israel's existential struggle against Egyptian and Syrian forces. Similarly, during the Yom Kippur War, America rationed weapons supplies to pressure Israel into retreating. Even during the War of Independence in 1948, both America and Britain suspended arms sales to Israel—only France proved somewhat more cooperative (They hate Anglosaxons).

I'm uncertain about the current situation in this war, though it is known that the Europeans are boycotting us. Throughout Israel's history, the world has consistently opposed us, hoping either for our defeat or, at a minimum, that we not achieve too decisive a victory.

Post-Trauma. Moi?

The war following the October 7, 2023, outbreak of the HAMAS has ended.  The entire population of Gaza has been corralled into half of the strip and is passing the winter in tents. Iran has been bombed. In the last months here, it has been quiet, and the economy is prospering. To crown all, there was a worldwide wave of violent hate against Jews,  including a mass murder in the Bondi Hanuka outing in Sidney.  And I am feeling the after-effects of these two years of stress. During the actual war, I felt no fear or anxiety. I am feeling it now. 

The WHO recommends: 

To help manage symptoms and promote overall well-being, a person can:

• continue normal daily routines
• connect with and talk to trusted people
• avoid alcohol and illicit drugs
• Exercise regularly, even if it’s just a short walk.
• maintain or develop healthy sleeping habits, and
• learn breathing techniques and progressive muscle relaxation.

Remodelling: NYC vs. Ramat Gan

“We’re talking a minimum of $100,000 for [the studio we first visited], which requires a complete remodeling,” Michael Johnson, a vice president at the New York Apartment Association, explained.

The cost: $10,000 for an architect to review the plans and obtain a permit; $50,000 for kitchen and bathroom materials and labor; $20,000 for the floors and ceilings; $6,000 for appliances; $25,000 in electricians’ fees; and a miscellany of other significant fees. These figures add up to the typical $100,000–$200,000 costs of renovating a studio apartment like the one we visited. It’s the same story upstairs in the second unit."

In New York you need a CD permit to make changes in your apartment; the cost of the permit is $ 10,000 (=32,000 sheqel). In Ramar Gan, it is about the same. The process is similar but in Israel you have to receive permits of the Water Corporation and the Environmental Unit and so on. In Ramat Gan also present a map indicating distance from water boreholes. 

Drought in Tehran and ...

... and in Kabul of Afghanistan, Iraq is wilting under drought and dust storms. Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey are approaching their Zero Hour.

Tehran is sinking a foot per year. As Elisha Kaly said, there is no aquifer under a city. The aquifer dries off, and the soil is compacted, and can never again function as a water repository. Kaputt.

The famous qanats of Iran have been abandoned in favour of electric pumps. They were working well for their age, but now they cannot be rebuilt.

WWIII?

WWIII?  After Generations of Peace, Europe Tells Its People to Prepare for War

“We’ve never had a situation where a man [Putin] is threatening nuclear blackmail. That: ‘If your military starts to win, we’re rolling out the nuclear weapons’ type of thing,” said Dimon.