Room in the Market

NUTRIEN the largest fertilizer company in the world, says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to disrupt global food chains.

Nutrien said it plans to increase its production this year to between 13.8 million and 14.6 million tonnes — up from 12.5 million tonnes in 2022, saying that rising crop prices are offsetting rising potash prices.

Looking more broadly, chief executive Ken Seitz said the conflict in Ukraine has created challenges for both Belarus and Russia, which together have accounted for 40 per cent of global potash production. The result is immediate and long-term effects on the market, Seitz said.

“If you look at the new production that was to come to the market over the next five years, 60 per cent of that outside of our own increases was to be coming from Russia and Belarus,” said Seitz, “and that we believe those projects are delayed.”

More immediately, he said Russian production would decline 15 to 30 per cent in 2023, while Belarusian production would decline 40 to 60 per cent. Already, he cited reports that Belarusian production had declined 50 per cent in recent months due to challenges shipping out of tidewater ports in Ukraine.

“So it all has the effect of creating room in the market,” said Seitz.

The Saskatoon YMCA where I spent time in the winter of 1969. I was young and didn't suffer from the cold. The YMCA rooms were overheated,