Thames Water's Likely in the Coming Default

 Thames Water’s €1 billion ($1.1 billion) of bonds due January 2031 are indicated at 72.8 cents on the euro. A debt restructuring — and consequently a default — is likely in the coming 12 months. BlackRock and Elliott Investment have been working on a plan to address the need for new funds and the unsustainable debt pile. The regulators keep demanding less pollution and do not allow a price rise.  It is a political dynamite. 

 It is an interesting situation for speculators. It's too complex for me. 

The Upcoming Hegemon of the Middle East

 
HaAretz writes today that there is a competition between Iran and Israel for the Middle East hegemony. We are focused on building a Jewish state and only wish nothing to do with the natives, but Iran's aggression does not leave us an alternative. I don't like it since close relatives have been called to reserve duty. They must be now manning the front line. I am too old to volunteer.

Hizballah decapitated

The Lebanese political-military-religious organization, the Hizbullah, has been decapitated.  Originally, civilized, Christian Lebanon was hoped to become our friendly neighbor. It was not to be. Lebanon was dominated by the Islamic minority, the Christians emigrated and Lebanon engaged in permanent hostilities. General Sharon tried to intervene and restore Christian domination but failed. We were left with an enemy in the North. We have destroyed it twice and are on it the third time. 

Dr. Francia, Dictador Perpetuo

 "El Supremo" or "Karai Guasu" was born on January 6th, 1766, the son of a Spanish soldier and daughter of the colonial governor. His doctorate was in Holy Theology from the University of Tucuman. He returned to Paraguay and became a teacher and a lawyer. He was elected First Councilor in the Spanish Colonial Government and after the fall of Spain, he changed the title to Perpetual Dictator. 

The White caste needed access to the sea and foreign markets. Dr Francia failed to establish good relations with Argentina, so the leading caste conspired. The Dictator decided to destroy it and started by establishing a register of Whites and forbidding the marriage of Whites with Whites. 

In 1864  Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay invaded Paraguay, killing 90% of the male population. These events resulted in a homogeneous mixed population, that speaks Guarani and Spanish. Paraguay never reached the level of other South American countries that conserved the strict racial stratification of the colonial era, like Peru, Brazil, and Argentina. 

Journal

 I have doubled my liquid assets, i.e. savings. It took 3 years, and the "secret" is Nvidia, a stock that rose 2,000%. On the other hand, my favorite ICL caused me a 50% loss. Israel Chemical exploits the minerals in the Dead Sea, but the fertilizer markets are apparently agonizing. Australia and Canada have opened new mines, the war in Ukraine did not harm their production, and prices are decreasing. Moreover, the Eilat-Red Sea route to India and China has been closed by the Houthis. These are small mountain tribes in Yemen, they conquered half of the country and are funded and armed by Iran. The Israeli company changed its focus and promoted itself as a specialty chemicals business: food preservatives, texturizers, and so on. My method is to read everything, buy stable companies' shares, and hold them forever. 

My wife was hospitalized two weeks ago and underwent a coronary procedure. She says it was nothing, I  suspect they installed a stent, and she is constantly tired and frightened of travel. 

I had a period of low blood pressure, did not work, and slept in the mornings, but now I take fewer pills and consume salty food. I had a few projects gone bad, it is very depressing. 

HAMAS shortened my life by 8.4 months

 

According to the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, male life expectancy is 81.0 years. If not for the October 7 2023 massacre, it would have been 81.7 years. Hamas stole 8.4 months from me. Statistically. 

The Artist at 5 y.o.

 

Marx in China

 

“These people are promoting traditional culture,” quipped one, referring to one of Mr Xi’s pet projects. “Dragons give birth to dragons, phoenixes to phoenixes, and a rat’s son knows how to dig.”

From The Economist. 

שנה טובה! (שולח מהממ"ד)

 

Shaatnez Panic in Jerusalem

 

Hundreds of students at the Old Seminary, an ultra-Orthodox school in Jerusalem, removed their shoes and walked barefoot after discovering their TOMS footwear contained Shaatnez, a forbidden mixture of wool and linen, BeHadrei Haredim and Mynet reported.

In a display of religious observance, the incident began when a student reported finding Shaatnez in her shoes, prompting the school’s principal, Rabbi Yisrael Levin, to announce the discovery over the PA system. Within moments, hundreds of pairs of shoes were removed as students chose to observe the halachic ruling by walking barefoot, BeHadrei Haredim reported.

The origins of the prohibition of shatnez in Jewish tradition is considered chok, an unexplainable law. The prohibition of mixing wool and linen is called kilayim. “The word shatnez is not actually a real word.”  Shatnez comes from combining three Hebrew words that refer to the different steps of garment production: combing, spinning, and weaving.

Basically, Judaism is a religion of purity and hates all kinds of mixing, like meat and milk. It must come from Egyptian priests, who shaved their whole body and had all sorts of impurity tabus. 

The Temple of the God of Money

 

Israel following Britain's Lead

 

The planning documentation for the Lower Thames Crossing, a proposed tunnel under the Thames connecting Kent and Essex, runs to 360,000 pages, and the application process alone has cost £297 million. That is more than twice as much as it cost in Norway to actually build the longest road tunnel in the world.

Much of the discussion is about the metaphysical question of whether the road+tunnel will increase or decrease the emission of CO2. As far as I  know, civil works do not produce nor consume CO2 / For those who do not know, CO2 is something invisible produced by, say, breathing. Infrastructure, as a rule, does not breathe. 

But we are not far from the Brits. 

Haggling or Fixed Price

I

If commitments are feasible, a seller encountering risk-neutral buyers one at a time should quote a single take-it-or-leave-it price to each. This strategy is superior to any other for finite or infinite buyer populations, whether there is learning or the distribution of buyer prices is known at the outset, with one object for sale or many. Although haggling may offer advantages in terms of price discrimination, these gains are more than offset by the losses it generates by encouraging buyers to refuse purchases at high prices.

Hard Times Ahead

 The war has been going on for a year, all the time stranger and more incomprehensible. In a creative and surprising project, Israel caused to self-explode Hizballah's pagers, wounding 3000 activists. Today, a second wave of electronic devices exploded, wounding mostly Iranian soldiers in Syria. The world wants us to retire from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, but we cannot because it is populated by millions of enemies living only to kill us. We shall have no alternative but to wage a prolonged war against them ending in lasting pacification. 

How to prepare a fat Springfield cat

 The latest scandal in America is about Haitian immigrants hunting and eating pets, specifically house cats. Cats are edible, I know, my uncle told me they survived the Budapest siege in WWII thanks to cats ("roof rabbits") and dead horses. I never researched how they prepared the roof rabbits so I do it now on the internet. Claude the AI said "I apologize, but I cannot recommend recipes" because it is illegal. The Wikipedia says: "Cat meat is meat prepared from domestic cats for human consumption. Some countries serve cat meat as a regular food, whereas others have only consumed some cat meat in desperation during wartime, famine or poverty." The best recipe I found is cat meatloaf, with 80% ground beef and 20% fresh bread to absorb the excess grease (only if the animal was fat, lean cats need no bread). The Maliki (an Islamic legal school) rules that it's makruh  (detestable) to eat them, but not haram (forbidden). Hindus are strict vegetarians. For Jews, cats are treif (unkosher), and we are allowed to eat only ruminants. 

Attacked by Drugged Morons

 

This morning the Yemeni Houthis launched a large missile on Tel Aviv. It caused zero damage but what were they trying to achieve? It was an attack, yes, but pointless. They caused people to run for refuge. And what? Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world, and like Bolivians, they survive masticating drug-containing leaves, in their case, the djatt. The difference between the material product between them and us, 800  $ GNP per capita vs 70,000 $, is abysmal. With a few cheap rockets, they closed the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, causing enormous losses to Egypt. It is like the Charrua Indians that stormed Buenos Aires in the 19th century. Till Rosas organized a hunt and pushed their "tolderias" (tents) into the desert, followed by General Roca killing the males in the Campana del Desierto. Our present predicament is totally absurd and unnatural. We shall have to find a way to survive till the mood of our Protestant masters changes and allows us to erase that plague. Pic.: El Malon, de Mauricio Rugendas.

Friday Siesta

Slept a four-hour siesta. Too much. This summer of 2024 has been hot difficult and endless.

Jeffrey Sachs Upset

 

Sachs received an alarming letter calling his attention to the Ukrainian attack on Russia's Nuclear Early Warning system. He thinks this is ABSOLUTELY destabilizing and provocative. Russia may defend itself using nuclear weapons against NATO's relentless advance encircling Russia. He is alarmed. In fact, he seems to be in a permanent panic attack state of mind. 

Buddhism, a consolation religion

 

As a macro-socioeconomic guy, I would point out that Buddhism became popular in China at the same time as *half* of the population died! Then Buddhism was pushed back against and receded at the same time as the population recovered to the prior level.

I am not sure. Was the Yuan (Mongol) terror regime an era of prosperity? The Ming and the foreign (Manchu/Tungusic) Ching eras promoted population growth? It is possible that DISORDER was more terrible and ORDER was good for the Chinese people.

Cat Ladies for Kamala

 

Swift included an image of herself with her cat in her post, which she signed as "childless cat lady," in an apparent dig at remarks previously made by Trump's running mate J.D. Vance, who, in a 2021 interview, called some leading Democrats "a bunch of childless cat ladies." 

The Clock is Ticking

 Israel:  “I’m ready to provide safe passage to Sinwar, his family, whoever wants to join him. We want the hostages back. We want demilitarization, de-radicalization of course — a new system that will manage Gaza," Hirsch stated.

“In parallel, I must work on plans B, C, and D because I must bring the hostages back home,” Hirsch added. “The clock is ticking; the hostages do not have time." 

Frankfurt Waste Incineration plant is out of operation

 

The pic shows exactly how I remember it when I visited the place. No garbage trucks approaching the site on Heddernheimer Landstraße, no steam rising into the sky via the colorful chimney. Where 2000 tons of household waste are usually delivered every day, incinerated and the waste heat converted into electricity and district heating so that it is always bright and warm in 30,000 Frankfurt households, everything is currently at a standstill. The largest waste-to-energy plant in Hesse and one of the most modern in Germany is out of operation. The operator sat on a high super easy throne in a glass cabin and controlled the operation with one hand. Impressive.  

As I remember, they used fossil fuels to burn the trash and the balance of energy was negative, that is, the amount of energy invested was lower than the electricity achieved. But it was considered "green". 

Sunday morning

 I am late with my projects. I took more than I could do. Saturday night, I worked and finished Anita's Kfar Shmariahu project and slept till 10 AM dreaming of war. Why do I need this at age 78? 

In 2010, the family team opened its first manufacturing plant in Ra'anana, Israel, and in 2014 Anita Gelato went global, launching its first overseas shop in Sydney.^[6] Several more shops were opened in Australia, and then in Spain, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico. The first USA location opened in 2020 in Manhattan's Upper East Side,^[7] and later in Los Angeles, and Miami. The brand's UK location opened in London's West End in 2022.^{[8] (from wiki)}

^{I am with them from the very beginning.}

Friday sleeping late

The last week I was tired, had insomnia, and did little work.  Yesterday, I went to sleep at 10 PM slept 12 hs, and woke up fresh and not fatigued. I feel so good that I worked no more than two hours.

Searching for a suitable illustration on Google, I found only African men and African females. Out of options, I copied this one. 

Zangezur Corridor

 Never heard of the Zangezur Corridor, it sounds like a Sci Fi location. But his corridor (see pic) is causing serious tensions between neighbors Russia and Iran. Russia's population is 120 million, Iran's near 100 million. It could lead to hostilities. Iran is vulnerable on several issues, Israel is not its sole or even main problem.

The Iranian regime has historically opposed Azerbaijani and Turkish efforts to establish the so-called Zangezur corridor between Azerbaijan proper and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic because such a corridor, going through Armenia’s most southern province, might sever Iranian access to Armenia and then Europe. As it is well known, Nakhchivan was founded by Noah after the Flood, or maybe not. 

Azerbaijan has at various times threatened to establish the corridor by force if necessary, which would be likely to provoke a further war with Armenia.

Azerbaijan’s military defence budget is more than three times the size of Armenia’s, and Baku demonstrated its military superiority in September 2023 by recapturing the occupied territories in Nagorno-Karabakh within 24 hours.

Vladimir Putin said that Moscow backed the corridor and that Armenia was sabotaging a Russian brokered agreement to open it. Tehran is debating its relations with Moscow. Corridors on enemy territory, vide Danzig, are a bad idea. 

NASDAQ in free fall

NVIDIA  - 10%

Yemenites control the Red Sea

 

An important sea route is being controlled by a Yemenite faction, disrupting world trade. America used to be the guardian of free seas, but it seems to be somehow failing. Where are the gunships?

0430 insomnia

 Slept in the afternoon.

Hypnos, the God of Sleep.

More Protests

 Tzahal found the tunnel where some hostages were being held. As they approached, the terrorists killed six of them. The Israeli pacifist public accuses the government of the assassination, for not giving up to the terrorists. Large protests are being organized for this evening. It's not good, Hamas feels that we are breaking down. The whole world is unable to resist the psychological pressure of these criminals. 

Manipulation involves exploiting psychological vulnerabilities, cognitive biases, and social dynamics to achieve desired the outcomes the manipulator wants. Psychological manipulation exists in various forms, such as gaslighting, emotional blackmail, coercion, and deception.

Gaslighting is a form of manipulation where individuals are led to doubt their perceptions, memories, and sanity. The manipulator uses tactics such as denying their actions, contradicting facts, and undermining the victim's self-confidence to establish control. Gaslighting can have severe psychological consequences, including anxiety, depression, and a distorted sense of reality.

Emotional blackmail is another manipulation technique. The manipulator uses guilt, fear, or obligation to manipulate others into compliance. By exploiting the victim's emotions and vulnerabilities, the manipulator seeks power and control over the individual's decisions and actions. Emotional blackmail can lead to powerlessness, low self-esteem, and an erosion of personal boundaries.

Coercion is yet another aspect of psychological manipulation. It refers to using threats, intimidation, or force to compel individuals to comply with the manipulator's wishes. Coercive tactics include:

• Creating a climate of fear.
• Exploiting power differentials.
• Applying psychological pressure to manipulate and control others.

The effects of coercion can include a loss of autonomy, increased stress, and a compromised sense of self.

My opinion: All further negotiations should be suspended till all the hostages are in Israel. Organize a public trial of Sinwar in absentia, condemn him to death by hanging, and proceed to execute him.