Israel takes in American Refugees

Well, not exactly refugees, but "olim" - Zionist immigrants. Four hundred of them landed just in one day. Isn't this something of a miracle, when half of humanity is risking life and leg to get into America?

Must Follow the Rules

 The best self-help book I read is The Rules. Although it is written specifically for young ladies desperate to catch a husband, deleting the technical specifics of seduction, the spirit of the book is a genius. The concept consists in having a clear, mechanical set of rules and follow it with NO deviation. I bought it for my daughters but I am the only one who has read it (I am not looking for Mr Right!). It embodies the spirit of Mr Wilson of IBM who prescribed to his salesman down to the angle of their ties (have not seen one in years), and what sentences to voice and forbid any creativity. The fabulous Fund of Funds, created by a Jewish psychologist turned speculator to sell a saving vehicle to American servicemen stationed in Europe (that was in the sixties), had a written dialogue to execute with prospective clients. Salesmen had to memorialize and say exactly what was written. The idea of Fund of Funds was that it would diversify the risk incorporating the diverse strategies of the individual funds. Of course it was a Ponzi but most successful. My point is that success is achieved by strictly following a formula, the Rules, and avoiding distractions and creativity. 

Argentina's 100-year bonds

In 2017, Argentina sold $2.75 billion worth of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds that mature in 2117, with a coupon of 7.125%. Investors placed 10 billion dollars’ worth of orders for the paper.  Argentina had defaulted six times within the past 100 years and that didn’t deter these intrepid buyers. 

At 7%, investors recoup their investment in just 12 years. The investors expected that Argentina would be solvent for at least 12 years, not 100. It seems they were over-optimist, only after one and half years and already we have issues. Anyway, Argentina still will be there in 2117 and even, possibly, paying its debts. I would not bet on it, but who knows?

Pic.: Unemployment. A 50 y.o. relative of mine has been unemployed for the last 9 months. 

De Mal en Peor: Argentina

The Peronist party won the elections in Argentina, something that surprised everybody. Immediately, the peso lost 50% of its worth as people ran to buy US dollars, and in New York, Argentine bonds lost up to 60% of their worth. This is a real panic. It means that world markets expect Argentina to default in its loans, and sink again into typical South American chaos. The population was suffering and famished under President Macri and voted for the Peronists, and for the return of the mythical times when Argentina was rich and Evita sent everybody a free pan dulce and a bottle of sidra for the New Year.  The pic shows the thousands of desperate faithful camping in front of the Iglesia San Cayetano, the saint to be prayed to for bread and jobs. The San Cayetano church is in my barrio, I knew that it was there but never paid it any attention. 

I friend just wrote me that Argentina is in its way to become another Venezuela.

Israel Participating in the Maritime Security Operation

For some mysterious reason the Chinese are breaking the US led sanctions against Iran, and are smuggling Iranian oil out of the Gulf.  The Royal Navy and Israeli forces are patrolling with the Americans to catch them. People does not know it yet, but we are in war with the Chinese. In the USA vs China "trade" war, which is NOT a trade war, we are definitely an US ally.  

Tisha Be'Av Menu: Boiled Wheat with Celery

Diversify or not to Diversify

The stock exchange has apparently reached a top and the world enters a period of recession. England already has negative GNP growth, America is not far away and China stopped growing fast. Is real estate in Israel a better safe haven for my savings? There is tremendous amount of building here yet prices are not falling. The population is growing and will grow, not only by natural growth but immigration as the rest of the world slows down. May be I shall do it.

“In an environment in which the market’s not growing, it’s hard to see where capital gets a return. We have $15 trillion of sovereign debt around the world trading at negative rates. If you have that many alternatives that look so unattractive, it means capital going to where no one dared to go before and is pulling down rates." 

A small apt. in Kfar Saba sells for 1400000 sheqel (400000US$). Down payment 200000 $ and the rest 20 years mortgage at 3%. The profitability of the deal depends on the price I can get for the apt. in 20 years.  I presume it will be worth 600000 $ since (1) building permits are not going to be easier to get in the future, (2) population is growing and the number of family units ("units" = old maids needing an apt for themselves and their cats) is in ascendance, and (3) they are not making more land, and the Shomron is not a solution and Jordan is already overpopulated - there is nowhere to expand, (4) The Arabs of the Triangle are desperate to leave Kalansuwa and move into Ashkenazi neighborhoods and they are paying extra for the privilege of a Jewish neighbor. 

I think it is time to diversify.  Now, if real estate prices should fall, I'll still have to bear the mortgage payments of 4000 shekel a month. I would like to be more intelligent to see the future more clearly. In the past, I moved like a sleepwalker and never failed. I always knew what to do and did it, but now I've lost my self-confidence. I never needed these calculations to know that was to be done. Anyway, money is not important, so the whole thing is entertainment. I am not going to be here in 2040.