George Soros Reflexions

Bought and read the Hungarian Jewish Speculator George Soros book The Alchemy of Finance. (Pic from 1962 on Wall Street). Much philosophical ruminations typical of Budapest coffee houses of the thirties, when people had no money but had much free time. Only when analyzing international finance he speaks about something he knows but it is difficult for me to follow his reasoning because things have changed so much.

Soros describes in detail his "experiments" in financial speculation, trying to discover the reaction of the market and then, if succeeds, to speculate in force. He explains that experiments in natural science work because nature has objective laws, while markets are the result of the wrong (distorted) opinions of the participants. Even after reading it twice I am unable to extract operational advise from his method.

He focuses on the 1987 Crash, which is actual for him, and is impressed by the Japanese reaction. In the middle of the panic, the Japanese government phoned to investment houses and brokers to buy and sustain the stock exchange, and so they escaped the crash. Soros reaches the conclusion that the social stability of Japan, a closed society, is superior to America's open society, and that Japan will supplant America and the yen, the dollar. (*)

Of course that did not happen. Japan entered a phase of deflation and debt, and show no signs of competing with America. A new power emerged, Communist China, a development Soros did not see. China is ten times larger than Japan, and it aims to eject America from Asia and become a world power. Chinese stock exchanges follow the Government orders, and they seem stable. Till now, China seems happy to get rich in the shade of American military superiority. May be war can be avoided in the next decades.

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(*) Subsequently, Soros created his Open Society Foundation which focuses in liberalizing Eastern Europe. In 2019 Hungary concluded that its activities were harmful and expelled it. Hungary is now trying to strengthen its national identity and increase natality. 

Lurking Danger II

From Europe, the war in Lybia looks different.  The least of their worries is oil and gas. Di Maio, the most active European, Italy's Foreign Minister, says that "Europe stands to lose the most in the Libya conflict. Just think of the 700,000 migrants in the country. If the war escalates, the humanitarian plight will also worsen, and many will come to Europe."

He most fears thousands of Africans sailing to Italy. For some reason, those well-armed Europeans feel impotent against naked beggars. 

What is the purpose of life?

Oy...!

The Spider Movie

Went to the movies. It is a Mossad Operation in Antwerp trying to discover a secret Syrian biowarfare factory. An old agent is in charge, but he is known to have embezzled payola monies. He asks for time and is attached a young assistant to watch him. Improbable romances and emotional father-son complications. There is also the car chase necessary for spy movies. I did not find my car in the parking and was rescued by a Good Samaritan. A real one. 

Lurking Danger

Erdogan (Turkey) is sending an armed expedition to Libya to install a puppet government. Egypt dislikes the Turkish intervention and detained four Turkish journalist in Cairo. We are a de facto ally of Egypt's Al Sissi. It is about the gas pipeline.

Pic. Turkish flotilla. Turkey is militarily active: fights side by side with Russia in Syria and patrols the surrounding waters.

P.S.: Bennet the Defense Minister met with its Greek counterpart. A coalition seems to be forming in the Eastern Mediterranean against Turkey's project to fetter it.

P.S.S.: The Israeli-Egyptian gas pipe should be defended by the Europeans because they are the beneficiaries of the gas supply. Today, Europe depends from Russia for a third of its energy supply, and Europe desperately needs to diversify its sources. Europe is rich in energy - oil, gas, coal, nuclear, etc. but for some mystical craziness it has forbidden for itself to develop those energy sources. It is developing solar energy which is a lost cause in the sunless, misty north, and wind energy, which dies when the wind stops. But Europe has no navy nor expeditionary forces, and no desire to confront the Turks. The young generation is mostly first/second generation immigrants, rootless and unintegrated, and unwilling to fight for their country. 

TEVA starting to breath

TASE at this hour shows a 7% jump in TEVA stock. Its Danish manager is succeeding in resuscitating this lemon.  Eternal optimist, I still have TEVA - and am still losing 80% of its purchase price.

Hope is the thing with feathers (quoted by Woody Allen). 

AI finds its niche: Policing

Having downloaded IBM's online free AI service found no use for it in my work. It appears that AI is, most of all, a perfect policing instrument, able to detect irregular behaviours and predict potentially outliers. China is using it for facial recognition, the NASDAQ is applying it for market surveillance and discover non-pattern, salient trades. Basically, the technology is being used for policing large number of actors. The consequence will be immediate discovery of anomalies (ill.) and the immediate, certain punishment of deviant behaviors and in the end, total uniformity. The Chinese will find it perfectly normal, for us Jews it will be a challenge. 

Ingenious Chinese are finding ways to confound AI by adding two more eyes on the face and using invisible masks, we shall madden AI by creating infinitesimal disturbances at irregular (non random) frequencies in bourse statistics.