Tuesday, January 21, 2020

George Soros Reflexions

Bought and read the Hungarian Jewish Speculator George Soros book The Alchemy of Finance. (Pic from 1962 on Wall Street). Much philosophical ruminations typical of Budapest coffee houses of the thirties, when people had no money but had much free time. Only when analyzing international finance he speaks about something he knows but it is difficult for me to follow his reasoning because things have changed so much.

Soros describes in detail his "experiments" in financial speculation, trying to discover the reaction of the market and then, if succeeds, to speculate in force. He explains that experiments in natural science work because nature has objective laws, while markets are the result of the wrong (distorted) opinions of the participants. Even after reading it twice I am unable to extract operational advise from his method.

He focuses on the 1987 Crash, which is actual for him, and is impressed by the Japanese reaction. In the middle of the panic, the Japanese government phoned to investment houses and brokers to buy and sustain the stock exchange, and so they escaped the crash. Soros reaches the conclusion that the social stability of Japan, a closed society, is superior to America's open society, and that Japan will supplant America and the yen, the dollar. (*)

Of course that did not happen. Japan entered a phase of deflation and debt, and show no signs of competing with America. A new power emerged, Communist China, a development Soros did not see. China is ten times larger than Japan, and it aims to eject America from Asia and become a world power. Chinese stock exchanges follow the Government orders, and they seem stable. Till now, China seems happy to get rich in the shade of American military superiority. May be war can be avoided in the next decades.

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(*) Subsequently, Soros created his Open Society Foundation which focuses in liberalizing Eastern Europe. In 2019 Hungary concluded that its activities were harmful and expelled it. Hungary is now trying to strengthen its national identity and increase natality. 

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