Thursday, January 23, 2020

Soros in Heightened Awareness

Working myself through Soros' Alchemy, wonder why journalists mistranslate his name. Soros, in Hungarian, my mother tongue, means "The Next One" i.e. the next in the queue. Victor Niederhoffer calls him the "Palindrome".

His critics accuse him of profiting from the expropriation of Jewish businesses in Budapest under the Nazis, forgetting that he was fourteen years old and living in mortal danger, like all the Jews. No Hungarian Jew ever blamed him of collaborating with the Nazis. We dislike him because he never gave a cent to Jewish causes, yet he gives untold millions to combat European nationalism. He is still fighting Szalasi and his long hanged Fascist Nyilas party. A sick obsession, for sure.

In the book Soros explains in detail how his philosophy allowed him to predict the movement of currencies and stocks. His graphs tell me a different story, he simply bought rising stocks and knew when the trend-chasing herd's sentiment was about to turn around and sold in time. He says he lived focused on his speculations and in a state of heightened awareness. I believe him, he may have been on Benzedrine as most in Wall Street.

I do not know if it is out of self-hate, but he rejects all link to the Jewish people, but that - unfortunately - is unexceptional - Budapest Jews were/are like that. His philanthropic foundation is nothing less that the mythical BuSab (Bureau of Sabotage), it organizes and funds all kind of destructive political movements, including Palestinian anti-Israeli subversion. He has convinced many (like the Malaysian President) that there is a real, evil Jewish conspiracy. In the positive side, he lives a normal family life and has five children, which is exceptional for his class. For me, his idée fixe is wrong and rather pathetic.

Notable Quote: "Created in an emergency, can survive only in emergencies, creates for itself a constant state of emergency." 

Love of Foreign Conflicts

Erdogan, President of Turkey, has sent expeditionary forces to fight for one of the sides in conflict in Libya. If successful, Turkey will own (or have a dominant influence) Libya, an important energy source of Europe.

Now Erdogan is leading Turkey into another foreign adventure. Somalia offered Turkey an offshore  concession in its presumed territorial waters. Any involvement in the project risks pulling Turkey  into direct conflict with neighboring Horn states such as Kenya, as the oil blocks in question are in the disputed maritime zone — a long-running quarrel which is yet to be resolved in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The disputed area is approximately 100,000 square kilometers and is known  to contain significant deposits of oil and gas.

No Western oil company is willing to return to Somalia because of the conflict and because the country's instability. In 1969 a military regime came to power and adopted Scientific Socialism as its ideology, thus becoming un-accessible. In 1977 Somalia invaded Ethiopia and was defeated. Somalia then entered its darkest era: lawlessness, anarchy and the absence of a central authority.  

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

George Soros Reflexions

Bought and read the Hungarian Jewish Speculator George Soros book The Alchemy of Finance. (Pic from 1962 on Wall Street). Much philosophical ruminations typical of Budapest coffee houses of the thirties, when people had no money but had much free time. Only when analyzing international finance he speaks about something he knows but it is difficult for me to follow his reasoning because things have changed so much.

Soros describes in detail his "experiments" in financial speculation, trying to discover the reaction of the market and then, if succeeds, to speculate in force. He explains that experiments in natural science work because nature has objective laws, while markets are the result of the wrong (distorted) opinions of the participants. Even after reading it twice I am unable to extract operational advise from his method.

He focuses on the 1987 Crash, which is actual for him, and is impressed by the Japanese reaction. In the middle of the panic, the Japanese government phoned to investment houses and brokers to buy and sustain the stock exchange, and so they escaped the crash. Soros reaches the conclusion that the social stability of Japan, a closed society, is superior to America's open society, and that Japan will supplant America and the yen, the dollar. (*)

Of course that did not happen. Japan entered a phase of deflation and debt, and show no signs of competing with America. A new power emerged, Communist China, a development Soros did not see. China is ten times larger than Japan, and it aims to eject America from Asia and become a world power. Chinese stock exchanges follow the Government orders, and they seem stable. Till now, China seems happy to get rich in the shade of American military superiority. May be war can be avoided in the next decades.

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(*) Subsequently, Soros created his Open Society Foundation which focuses in liberalizing Eastern Europe. In 2019 Hungary concluded that its activities were harmful and expelled it. Hungary is now trying to strengthen its national identity and increase natality. 

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Lurking Danger II

From Europe, the war in Lybia looks different.  The least of their worries is oil and gas. Di Maio, the most active European, Italy's Foreign Minister, says that "Europe stands to lose the most in the Libya conflict. Just think of the 700,000 migrants in the country. If the war escalates, the humanitarian plight will also worsen, and many will come to Europe."

He most fears thousands of Africans sailing to Italy. For some reason, those well-armed Europeans feel impotent against naked beggars. 

Friday, January 17, 2020

The Spider Movie

Went to the movies. It is a Mossad Operation in Antwerp trying to discover a secret Syrian biowarfare factory. An old agent is in charge, but he is known to have embezzled payola monies. He asks for time and is attached a young assistant to watch him. Improbable romances and emotional father-son complications. There is also the car chase necessary for spy movies. I did not find my car in the parking and was rescued by a Good Samaritan. A real one. 

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Lurking Danger

Erdogan (Turkey) is sending an armed expedition to Libya to install a puppet government. Egypt dislikes the Turkish intervention and detained four Turkish journalist in Cairo. We are a de facto ally of Egypt's Al Sissi. It is about the gas pipeline.

Pic. Turkish flotilla. Turkey is militarily active: fights side by side with Russia in Syria and patrols the surrounding waters.

P.S.: Bennet the Defense Minister met with its Greek counterpart. A coalition seems to be forming in the Eastern Mediterranean against Turkey's project to fetter it.

P.S.S.: The Israeli-Egyptian gas pipe should be defended by the Europeans because they are the beneficiaries of the gas supply. Today, Europe depends from Russia for a third of its energy supply, and Europe desperately needs to diversify its sources. Europe is rich in energy - oil, gas, coal, nuclear, etc. but for some mystical craziness it has forbidden for itself to develop those energy sources. It is developing solar energy which is a lost cause in the sunless, misty north, and wind energy, which dies when the wind stops. But Europe has no navy nor expeditionary forces, and no desire to confront the Turks. The young generation is mostly first/second generation immigrants, rootless and unintegrated, and unwilling to fight for their country.