Corollarium

Source.  Doctors are already prescribing hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin to potentially help severely ill COVID-19 patients. Matter of fact, the FDA has already approved hydroxychloroquine for emergency use for these patients. The reason why this drug is good for COVID-19 is because it provides the ability to inhibit immune response. That's important, because COVID-19 causes acute respiratory distress syndrome or ARDS, because a patient's immune response is severe against the lungs. That causes the air sacs or alveolus of the lungs to flood with fluid and it becomes hard for oxygen to be delivered to red blood cells. Another belief is that hydroxychloroquine also inhibits viral replication as well. Azithromycin is believed to help with pneumonia.

As far as potential treatments in development, I believe that Gilead's remdesivir may potentially offer some therapeutic benefit. That's because this drug is a nucleotide analog which blocks a particular enzyme that is required for viral replication. Hydroxychloroquine has already been approved by the FDA for emergency use. Remdesivir may also get the greenlight for use, should several studies to be reported in the coming weeks turn out with positive data. As far as vaccines go, it will be roughly 12 to 18 months. That's because it will take time to randomize several hundred patients and then test safety and efficacy. Especially, if you want to make sure that there are no long-term negative side effects. Plus, you have to be able to produce millions of doses, which may take some time to ramp up. As far as profitability may go, it is likely that a good amount of revenue will be made, but that depends where it is priced at. In addition, it depends on the seasonality of this virus also.

Corollarium: We have a maximum of six month till something is found. The only problem I see is that the companies will emerge with much debt, that may lead to inflation. Dollar inflation. 

Building character

Seeking Alpha  in a note titled "The worst is to come" points out the silver lining  of coronavirus pandemic: The hardship that we are experiencing right now is tragic, but it fosters resilience and builds character.  

At my Mathusalemic age, do I need to build character? I prefer to build wealth, to increase the worth of my portfolio.

"Also, we will soon know a lot more than we do now. Tthe true negative impact on the economy and the financial health of corporations is unimaginable right now. And as we progress through the month of April, the economic reports and corporate earnings announcement are going to undoubtedly be absolutely horrendous."

Good. Reality is now returning to global capital markets. Much character building.  Let's think of a plan. 

Stopping the Economy to fight the Pandemic

Some are doubting the wisdom of stopping the economy, closing down factories and shops to fight the corona flu. After all, the actual disease affects about 1% of the infected and the number of deaths is statistically insignificant and of unhealthy/improductive people. Everybody is suffering, in Israel one million persons are unemployed and without income, business is closed and cheap loans are super-risky because loads the business with debts that will have to be paid back. England tried to choose a more rational path but soon had to adopt drastic measures like everyone else. I am old and deep in the endangered class, so I assume I am unable to think clearly. Anyway, the State of Israel has decided what to do and possess the means to exact compliance from small people like me.

The economy is adapting to the pandemic. Everything is being done by computer and mobile phone. A self-help parallel economy is aborning: people drive out to farms to buy produce, and they are sewing and selling masks. I have been working from my home studio for the last twenty years, so I feel the difference only by having my wife non-stop over me or shouting on the phone. 

Israel Forever

Israel sold $1 billion of 100-year bonds in international markets as part of a record $5 billion fundraising to finance government aid to help the economy cope with the coronavirus outbreak.

Israel joins a handful of countries such as Austria, Mexico and Argentina, which have sold “century bonds.”

The local Treasure says it is a testament to the faith in Israel's solidity. Yet Argentina also succeeded in selling similar bonds, and the purchasers already lost half of their investment. 

How Much TEVA?

It has been two weeks of emergency in Israel. It is forbidden to walk the streets. One million people has been sacked and is unemployed living on Social Security. The bourse is very depressed, cheap, with prices lower than two years ago. TEVA, a large pharma company, lost 90% of its value, but it is working and profiting organization, and in this epidemy, its products should be invaluable. I decided to buy some more. How much? Thinking.

Perineum sunning

It is a German invention. It is deeper than nude sunbathing. No pictures.

The Ruins of Syria

I live in the center of a town of 100,000 and am used to continuous noise. Now, suddenly, everything is silent and quiet. The pidgeons are sunbathing in the middle of the street and courting each other. I hear every movement of the upstairs Russian couple and the shouts of the first floor Persian tribe.

Bored, look up what the CIA thinks of Syria. It seems tht Syria is ruined, the GNP is 2900 dollar per capita, the bare survival. I used to think of Syria as an Arab country, but CIA says is only ~50% Arab, the rest Alawite ~15%, Kurd ~10%, Levantine ~10%, other ~15% (includes Druze, Ismaili, Imami, Nusairi, Assyrian, Turkoman, Armenian). The Alawites are not Arab? I have never heard of the ethnic group of Levantines? Always thought of Syria as a homogeneous Arab country, but now the CIA is describing it as diverse. May be the plan is to break up the Middle East into small ethnic countries, like Europe after WWII. In Europe it worked and there is peace.

The population is growing at the rate of 4.25% NA (2020 est.), half of it immigrants. Immigrants to dirt poor Syria, with 40% unemployment? GNP is $24.6 billion (2014 est.) - about 5% of Israel. Millions are trying to escape from Syria. It all started with a draught and the Sunni rebellion against the Alawi dictatorship and in less that three years the conflict destroyed the country. Who could imagine it?

P.S.: Researching the Levantine ethnic group, apparently it is mixed European population that rejects the Arab identity and wants to be classed with Europeans, just as they were in the past. Is its renaissance a CIA initiative? May be the idea is to weaken the Arab identity and de-Arabize the region? Could be.  It also could be a natural development, as the peoples living here are realizing the total failure of Arab states. I do not know.