Alchemy

 

Re-reading Soros' Alchemy understood (at last!) his concept of reflexivity, which is no other than a self-reinforcing trend. The more it progresses, stronger it becomes. Or weaker. Simple. Understood also what he was doing under the term "speculation". He was a money trader, had in his head (and tried to express it through an arrow scheme) of interactions - say Japan has a growing foreign exchange deficit, then a devaluation of the yen may be around the corner. With 20 years experience in foreign currency markets, he was able to predict future rates and put a winning bet. No miracle, just a good mind and much experience. His success cannot be copied by me, because he is talking about the situation in 1970 - fifty years ago! Many try foreign currency speculation, like Fishman, and lose their shirts. In the case of Fishman, his Alliance tire factory.  BTW, in the last fifty years, much has been written about currency speculation, and the field is no more virgin, so to speak. Geriatrics like me, theoretically, prefer fresh, innocent markets and not much circulated dog-eared currency notes. All in theory, because in practice exited the playground a long time ago.  

Never piss against the wind

 Alberto Nisman, Argentina's Attorney General, was executed in his home the night before he was to denounce in the Congress the then President of Argentina Cristina Kirchner, is being investigated post-mortem by the police. A judge has ordered to expropriate all his properties as well as her family's and those of a friend who loaned him a car to drive. Not only the dead public functionary and his family are suspected of criminal activities, but also three companies he may have invested in. Anybody who is thinking of denouncing government corruption in Argentina, should take careful notice. 

Hiatus

I have received several requests for price proposals, but I have not answered them. Two days I worked little or nothing. The quarantine is getting on my nerves. Coffee in the breakfast makes me sleepy and for the first time in my life, stood up and had a morning nap in the living room. Starting to work was always hard for me, once got started it pulls me through, but these days I cannot start. After a year of epidemics, the depression is getting me. We have the grandchildren here, they run around happily, that should rise my spirits. 

The Pfizer vaccine is effective

Today they are starting to give the second shot of the Pfizer anti-corona vaccine. Till now no one with the first shot got corona. There are side effects, like muscle pain, but it is better than dying suffocated. 

The mood is resignation

Going over English-speaking media, the  dominant tone is jubilation, as Trump is accused of a failed insurrection, trying to force the legal authorities to annul the results of the election. The Democrats are poised to impose a strict authoritarian regime. The tone of the right is shock and resignation to a long Democratic winter. 

One blogger observes that in Georgia the unconceivable happened: they elected a Black preacher and a Jewish liberal. This would have never happened if not for the demographic changes  of the last 50 years. Looking at the numbers, that is not true, foreign immigration to the State is less than 2% of the population.  The proportion of Blacks is lower than the historical 50%. 

Commodities Alert!

 I have noticed a strange revival of the shares of ICL the local phosphate fertilizer company. I discovered that the tremendous rise in the demand of agricultural (and oil) commodities is behind it. The speculators are already discounting the yearlong corona crisis. I know what to do tomorrow on TASE.  

Military Lockdown

 The Israeli Army has closed its camps and the soldiers will receive no passes for the next month. It appears that the countrywide quarantine starting this afternoon with no definite end-time will be harsh. 

And boring.