Bin Salman Orphaned

"Bin Salman essentially brought this situation on himself. Today he is, more or less, an orphan in the world and in an extremely difficult position. The Saudis' capabilities today are practically nonexistent," the former senior Mossad official added. "You have to remember what the Saudi army is: it's a massive army — 260,000 soldiers, 7% of Saudi GDP, which amounts to trillions, goes to the military, they have 300 F-15 aircraft — and we see the results."

So why is this regional power being humiliated by its neighbors today? "The Saudis funded the formal Yemeni army with hundreds of millions, and they were simply lied to about the troop numbers," Eilam explained. "They paid enormous sums per head, and in practice those soldiers didn't exist. Right now, the Houthis are dictating almost everything to Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia has almost no options on the table against the Houthis. I estimate that bin Salman will fairly soon submit an instrument of surrender."

Eilam noted that it was Saudi Arabia itself that started this campaign. "On July 13 they struck Sanaa airport and prevented the landing of an Iranian plane carrying members of the Revolutionary Guards. Bin Salman, as usual, zigzagged, hesitated, went right and left, and the whole thing fizzled out."

And now Saudi Arabia is alone: the United States has announced that it has no intention of striking in Yemen, and the trilateral military alliance recently signed between the kingdom, Pakistan and Turkey is not proving itself either. Is this Israel's place to step into the vacuum? "Israel should definitely take advantage of this situation, but we need to take advantage of it with the bill presented immediately," he ruled. "Our condition has to be very clear: 'You join the Abraham Accords for full normalization, and you don't even mention the Palestinian issue.' Without that, not a single hair will move toward Bab el-Mandeb — and Israel has a great deal to offer."

Let's step ahead: If Saudia reverts to chaos, what will 260,000 unemployed soldiers do? Some units will try to seize power. Without oil exports, the vast peninsula is one of the poorest places on Earth.