Is the Economy About to Boil?

 

Arnold Kling blogs:

1. During the pandemic, Americans accumulated a lot of paper wealth, as the government printed paper wealth in the form of bonds and the stock market returned to a state of irrational exuberance. This wealth now hangs over an economy with some supply bottlenecks and an Administration that will exacerbate those bottlenecks. (Ed.:Already there is full employment in the USA - salaries will rise).

2. If spending and inflation do pick up, we are going to find that the Fed’s brake pedal does not work. The Fed can try to raise interest rates by, for example, raising the interest rate that it pays on Fedcoin (digital bank reserves). But higher rates will be politically unpalatable, because the interest bill for the government will be too much to bear.

3. As to the question of “overheating,” I think of inflation in terms of phase changes. Just as water changes properties when it boils, an economy changes properties when it goes from low and steady inflation to high and variable inflation. By the time it has changed phases, it is too late to deal with it using mild measures.

... historians will go back and see that in hindsight signs of overheating were evident by early 2021. The digital currency mania will be seen as emblematic of the distortions caused by excessive creation of paper wealth.

Russia sends Message

Massive materiel movements in Krasnodar. American forces in Europe announced potential imminent war - and are in alert. It may develop into the largest conventional confrontation of our times. In the last seven years, Russia and Ukraine have been disputing the Donbass area. Putin tries to rebuild the pre-Gorbachev Union. 

Looking out from my window

 I see a 15 meter high fig tree, which is home to a population of fruit bats, and various birds of which the bright emerald green ring necked parakeets are the most notable. They are a recent introduction to Israel and have displaced native species. They cross the air like fighter jets in organized squads. In Argentina they are called loro barranquero and declared an agricultural plague. We have also the pigeons by their thousands, fat and mostly occupied in pecking and fucking each other. The good people of the neighborhood feed them (as they do to street cats). There is an overpopulation of pigeons and they are always desperately searching for nesting places, exploring my room and flying in if the window is open. 

Not Stock Exchange Mandrake

 I am having a free day with no one pressuring me to finish their projects. This is very unusual for me and somewhat unsettling too. So I looked up the evolution of my bourse investments and in ten years I had triplicated my savings (200% gain). Calculated that it means 11% per annum (compound interest equation) in US dollars. I had estimated dollar inflation to be around 3% but discovered that it was only 1.5%  in the last decade, meaning 16% loss in real terms. It is almost insignificant. The yield in real terms was about 10%. Since each month I added more stock, the real growth may have been only 5% and taking into account the 25% tax - around 4% in real terms. It should have been 6% if TEVA maintained its worth, but unfortunately I am losing 50-60% on that company. I also lost on my DELEK (oil) bets. I did somewhat better than the index but the bottom line is that I am no stock exchange magician.  

Suez Canal Out of Service

The  Ever Given cargo ship is blockading the Canal. It has a length of 400 m while the canal's width is 200 m. Its hull has a beam of 58.8 m, a depth of 32.9 m, and a fully laden draft of 14.5 metres . Ever Given has a gross tonnage of 220,940; net tonnage of 99,155; and deadweight tonnage of 199,629 tons. The ship's container capacity is 20,124 TEU.

The main engine is a low-speed two-stroke diesel. Coupled to a fixed-pitch propeller, it is rated at 59,300 kW (79,500 horsepower) at 79 rpm and gives the vessel a service speed of 22.8 knots (42.2 km/h; 26.2 mph). The vessel also has four straight-8 Yanmar 8EY33LW auxiliary diesel generators. For maneuvering in ports, Ever Given has two 2,500 kW (3,400 hp) bow thrusters Therefore it has not enough power to dig itself out of muddy bottom and sides of the canal. 

There are seemingly trying to dig out with JCB-like machines the front interred in the mud. I wonder why they are no pulling it with land cables and tractors. Now they are talking of discharging part of the cargo. Since they have an Egyptian pilot on board, I think that the responsibility falls on the Canal Authority. It will be a long fight to establish who pays the damages. The Europa Asia Pipeline (former Katzaa) will receive a large push with this disaster. 

Harvard Punishes Professor for Accepting Donation

Faculty of Arts and Sciences (FAS) dean Claudine Gay announced disciplinary actions against Martin Nowak, professor of mathematics and biology, stemming from his connections to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Those connections were spelled out in a 2020 report: between 1998 and 2008, Epstein made gifts of $6.5 million to the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, which was run by Nowak. (That figure made up the largest share of the $9.1 million in total gifts that Epstein donated to the University during that period.)  

Nowak is an Austria-born Catholic, who worked on evolutionary problems like cooperation. He is not accused of anything except his connections with a generous donor. In my experience, professors are encouraged and forced to seek financing for their projects, but this is the first time someone is punished for being too successful. My Father told me of the dilemma faced by Jaszbereny synagogue, when the owner of the local whorehouse wanted to donate: Should it be accepted? I do not remember what was the decision. Pecunia non olet, but that was in Rome. Harvard is still a Puritan Divinity School. 

P.S.: 

Harvard closes evolution center after finding connections to Jeffrey Epstein

 

Penis and Anus Whitening

I have reached the age where I am officially classified as "old", yet I am still learning new things every day, every hour. Important knowledge that I'll find useful should I be reborn as a Black. Such as procedures to lighten the skin of the genitals, anus or groin area. Laser bleaching of private areas is carried out by using a type of laser which damages or kills the cells that produce melanin - the pigment that gives skin its color. Most patients undergo a few laser sessions before achieving the desired result, and each session usually takes 10-15 minutes. Laser bleaching comes with risks of infection and scarring, and should always be carried out in a professional clinic setting. But skin lightening can also be carried out at home using a bleaching cream. Popularity of bleaching private parts has been linked to several high-profile celebrities, such as Kourtney Kardashian, publicly admitting to having these procedures done.