Wasting time

When I went to school in Vienna, trying to understand the goings-on, the Austrian boy at the next desk gave me a present. Something like this, but bigger and painted with colors. That was in 1957. 

For the record: I did no work today. I measured my BP and it was low, like a young man. Fed mostly on bananas and spent the day at home. Now I am trying to force myself to finish the Azriel Cannabis project.

Ohne Fleiß kein Preis 

Studying Falkenstein

For years, my fav blogger was Eric Falkenstein, from Minneapolis, but lately, he stopped writing. One paragraph about the art of investment, not that I understand him fully:

While I agree with most people that many investors are ignorant and susceptible to biases, these suboptimal decision-makers are a poor explanation for equilibrium asset prices; their bad decision-making is mainly evinced by excessive trading. It doesn't take many smart traders to figure out that if they steel themselves against those risky-stock promoters they can make large risk-adjusted returns. It's not complicated, you don't have to tie yourself against a mast like Odysseus, just don't listen to conference calls or watch CNBC, and instead just crunch datasets where all you know about ABC corp are its objective metrics.  Then buy the wallflower stocks and sell the crazy/hot ones. Arbitrageurs should counteract behavior biases in asset markets with free entry.

He thinks that the investor's main motivator is envy and not greed.  

TASE Volatility

 After I finished helping my daughter to buy the apartment of her dream, I stopped following the bourse. Now I am lightly interested and amazed by the volatility. The shares I used to follow now lose 10% a day and then rise 10% the next. I never saw such volatility. The meaning is that the bourse community is uncertain and fearful: they do not know what to do. I think I may restart speculating again, this time without a goal, just because it is interesting and I am disgusted with the בודקי תוכניות (this is a new profession. The authorities have hired failed, misanthrope engineers to criticize the projects submitted for approval. These are bad people that enjoy rejecting projects. Now it takes three to five years on average to get a היתר בנייה aka building permit. Via Dolorosa.)

Israel Prospering

 

S&P, a credit rating company confirms Israel's credit rating: AA minus. The main characteristics of the State of Israel's credit rating are a diversified and robust economy, strong external accounts, an optimal debt structure alongside increased geopolitical risks.

S&P expects the Israeli economy to grow at a rate of 5.5% in 2022, after in 2021 the actual growth was 8.2%, higher than the company's original forecast of 6.5%. The company points positively to the strong external accounts with a surplus in the balance of payments and high foreign exchange reserves, supported by a strong high-tech sector. Russia-Ukraine war has zero impact on the economy.

The Coalition: Ra'am, the Islamic Movement's Bedouin Party, is part of the governing coalition. Reacting to the police beating of Palestinian demonstrators on the Temple Hill, it retired it support for the government. To come back, they demanded a large bribe. Bennet would not agree, so they stopped negotiating with him and demanded to speak with Liberman, the corrupt but smart Monies Minister. They found a common language and in no time, the Bedouins are back in the government. The Torah forbids us to wage war repeatedly against the same enemy, so they will not learn to fight. Seems to me that we have been bribing the Bedouins for so long that they have learnt the mechanics of successful blackmailing and are better at it than we are. Abu Something their leader declared that good things are coming soon to the nomad encampments.

Shura will decide

 

Tomorrow will be the vote in the Knesset about the dissolution of the government. If the Ra'am Islamic party decides so, the Bennet government falls. Ra'am has convoked consultations (Shura in Arabic) and they will decide the fate of Israel. Presumably, millions will flow into the pockets of the Beduin leadership and Bennet will have a respite.  

Life expectancy

 

According to the US Social Security calculator, I have 11.6 years to live. According to John Hancock Insurance, I'll die at 97.  I'll look like this fellow Hungarian Jewish refugee. Not nice. 

Anyway, I have to work out a quinquennial plan. 

Discovering the Pokemon Universe

 

Arbel has a big Pokemon cards album and demonstrated to me what each critter does. Could you believe that this superannuated grandpa had never heard of the Pokemon universe?  Springtime for the always-learning saba J.