Potash supplies - tight?

 Mosaic said global supplies of potash and phosphates are expected to remain tight “through 2023 and likely beyond” because of lower shipments from Belarus, port constraints in North America and exports from China that remain “well below” 2021 levels. Meanwhile, the company sees demand benefiting from “favorable grower economics” amid high crop prices.

“Mosaic is well-positioned to capitalize on the fertilizer market’s recovery, which is well underway,” chief executive officer Joc O’Rourke said in the statement.

Potash price fell from 800 to 300 US$/ton this year, and Belarus is channeling Russian potash exports. Experts say "Sell" - but Mosaic (pic: Mosaic's Colonsay mine) is increasing production. What is happening? Why am I so confused?

I am invested (and losing) on ICL. ICL is an Israeli company dual-listed in Tel Aviv and New York. ICL has gradually expanded into a global business since helping to establish its home country’s potash industry 80 years ago. Israel Corp, Israel’s largest holding company, owns just over 45% of the business. As the world’s sixth largest potash producer, the company is responsible for over one-third of global production of bromine, which is used in agricultural chemicals, dyestuffs, insecticides and pharmaceuticals. ICL has become one of the largest providers of specialty fertilizers, bromine and flame-retardants, and a significant supplier of pure phosphoric acid. Its operations include the Boulby mine in the UK, where the company has shifted towards exclusive production of Polysulphate, claiming to be ‘the first and only supplier of this new and unique fertilizer’.

PS: Sept.25 and ICL dropping in NASDAQ. ZIM falling 6%. This winter will be cruel. 

Israel's First Proxy Victory

 The Armenians in Azerbaijan surrendered and thus, that war ended with our ally's victory. Russia's friend lost. We supplied Azerbaijan with weapons paid with oil, and with the use of its 3 or 4 air bases left by the Soviets. Thus, in a very modest scale, we are proving that our friendship is worth a lot. Good.

Pic.

Xi's Faction under attack

The secret detention of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu means that there is no job security in China's government. He had been promoted in May, together with other Xi loyalists. Former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who was officially removed from his post in late July was another mandarin promoted under Xi. Their presumed sin is corruption, attending banquets and demanding sex and money from underlings. Since that kind of behavior is rather expected from officials, I assume that Xi is under attack. 

In the center of the pic, Gen. Zhang Yang who committed suicide a few years ago amid an investigation into his ties with two disgraced military figures. Zhang, 66, a former head of the powerful Central Military Commission's (CMC) political work department, "hanged himself at his home in Beijing. 

A good day in TASE

If I needed another demonstration, today's TASE shows that financial speculation yields more than backbreaking work. The web page today shows a paper profit equal to one year's work as water engineer. I'm not selling and taking this profit, but it proves the correctness of my strategy. My dear wife cares for my lifestyle like did for her mother, prolonging my life like her years, gifting me ten years more than I would last if the actuarial tables were predictive and relevant.  
 

Gifted in Israel

  

My second granddaughter was classified in the school (2nd grade) as gifted, so naturally I wanted to learn what that means. The Central Bureau of Statistics has a long explanation (in Hebrew) how they are selected. There are two categories: the gifted (mehunanim) and outstanding (mitztaynim). The numbers are broken down by the economic-social grade of the school (that is, the neighborhood) - above: left=low, middle=middle and right=high. 

The ranking city is Tel Aviv with 8.39 (from 10) and my city is number 5 with 7.59.  According to the graph, in 2021 they found about 11,000 gifted children, 40% of them from the high-ranking cities. About 10% of the age group is selected. The proportions (gifted = brown line, outstanding=green line) grows from year to year, meaning, may be, that a larger portion of the children are gifted? The whole explanation is so obscure that it is impossible to make sense of it, which is the point. 

My granddaughter says she did not answer the numbers questions yet got selected. How come? I don't know, she certainly has no "protectzia". 

War is bad for the potash business

Nutrien, the world largest potash mining company, is projected to report earnings of $0.96 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 61.75%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $5.68 billion, down 30.6% from the year-ago period. Analysts advise "Sell today".

I have been collecting potash shares for the last twenty years and now am losing much money. The war in Ukraine, instead reducing the offer as I expected, incentivizes the massive dumping of the mineral at any price. In this case, war is no good for business. 

Yet, I am not selling. The world needs potash fertilizers. 

My impression of yesterday's debate

Yesterday, the Supreme Court of Justice of Israel held an open, televised debate of the recent modification of a Basic Law (part of a future Constitution). My impression is that the judges know that they cannot repeal the legally approved legislation, however horrible it may be in their view. 

The opponents voiced fears of the eventual long-term consequences, but the judges said that they cannot deal with eventualities, they judge only facts. 

The most ridiculous of the speakers was "Adam, Teva, etc." environmental organization, which said the new law will make impossible the elimination of micro-elements from drinking water. 

The most serious was the military exposition that European countries are looking for a case to invalidate Israel's system of justice, so they can start jailing Israelis for war crimes. They are not doing that because the Israeli system is so severe and defends so effectively Palestinian terrorists. Should happen that a soldier inadvertently kills one and is not immediately jailed, the Europeans will declare it a war crime and start taking measures against Israel. They hate us that much. And more.