Friday, September 22, 2023

Potash supplies - tight?


 Mosaic said global supplies of potash and phosphates are expected to remain tight “through 2023 and likely beyond” because of lower shipments from Belarus, port constraints in North America and exports from China that remain “well below” 2021 levels. Meanwhile, the company sees demand benefiting from “favorable grower economics” amid high crop prices.


“Mosaic is well-positioned to capitalize on the fertilizer market’s recovery, which is well underway,” chief executive officer Joc O’Rourke said in the statement.

Potash price fell from 800 to 300 US$/ton this year, and Belarus is channeling Russian potash exports. Experts say "Sell" - but Mosaic (pic: Mosaic's Colonsay mine) is increasing production. What is happening? Why am I so confused?

I am invested (and losing) on ICL. ICL is an Israeli company dual-listed in Tel Aviv and New York. ICL has gradually expanded into a global business since helping to establish its home country’s potash industry 80 years ago. Israel Corp, Israel’s largest holding company, owns just over 45% of the business. As the world’s sixth largest potash producer, the company is responsible for over one-third of global production of bromine, which is used in agricultural chemicals, dyestuffs, insecticides and pharmaceuticals. ICL has become one of the largest providers of specialty fertilizers, bromine and flame-retardants, and a significant supplier of pure phosphoric acid. Its operations include the Boulby mine in the UK, where the company has shifted towards exclusive production of Polysulphate, claiming to be ‘the first and only supplier of this new and unique fertilizer’.

PS: Sept.25 and ICL dropping in NASDAQ. ZIM falling 6%. This winter will be cruel. 

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