Dementia, A National Threat

 

Think about 81-year-old Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell freezing mid-speech multiple times, and the 90-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a key member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, being hospitalized and publicly exhibiting confusion and a "rapidly deteriorating” memory. Feinstein’s extended absence earlier this year delayed numerous judicial confirmations—she missed over fifty votes during her ten-week vacancy. A Pentagon-funded study released in April this year identified dementia among high-level US officials as a national security threat. RAND points out that many of the high security officers have military backgrounds with possible brain damage. RAND used to be a serious think tank. 

The prevalence of dementia among people over 65 is 10%. People (like me) are working till they die so there must be a high prevalence of the disease among senior politicians. I think Ehud Barak may be suffering dementia. He was exposed to traumatic experiences in the military, and he is at increased risk to develop dementia. The RAND report focus is on federal employees in general, but also deals with the risks associated with elderly leaders. RAND uses the same risk evaluation matrix required by firefighters in Israel for permits, a standard form I am familiar with. 

Watching the recent conservation between Bibi and President Biden, I noticed that Bibi was talking animatedly to an absent Biden. Biden slowly touched his left ear with his right hand and the dreamy movement ended by crossing himself in a way totally out of context. Maybe he heard the word Jerusalem and automatically crossed himself. He is 81 and candidate to another four years. His vice, a former ferocious attorney, is a mystery. Haris is half Iyer and half Jamaican mulatto. No children. She stands in line to be the next President or the one after.

Potash supplies - tight?

 Mosaic said global supplies of potash and phosphates are expected to remain tight “through 2023 and likely beyond” because of lower shipments from Belarus, port constraints in North America and exports from China that remain “well below” 2021 levels. Meanwhile, the company sees demand benefiting from “favorable grower economics” amid high crop prices.

“Mosaic is well-positioned to capitalize on the fertilizer market’s recovery, which is well underway,” chief executive officer Joc O’Rourke said in the statement.

Potash price fell from 800 to 300 US$/ton this year, and Belarus is channeling Russian potash exports. Experts say "Sell" - but Mosaic (pic: Mosaic's Colonsay mine) is increasing production. What is happening? Why am I so confused?

I am invested (and losing) on ICL. ICL is an Israeli company dual-listed in Tel Aviv and New York. ICL has gradually expanded into a global business since helping to establish its home country’s potash industry 80 years ago. Israel Corp, Israel’s largest holding company, owns just over 45% of the business. As the world’s sixth largest potash producer, the company is responsible for over one-third of global production of bromine, which is used in agricultural chemicals, dyestuffs, insecticides and pharmaceuticals. ICL has become one of the largest providers of specialty fertilizers, bromine and flame-retardants, and a significant supplier of pure phosphoric acid. Its operations include the Boulby mine in the UK, where the company has shifted towards exclusive production of Polysulphate, claiming to be ‘the first and only supplier of this new and unique fertilizer’.

PS: Sept.25 and ICL dropping in NASDAQ. ZIM falling 6%. This winter will be cruel. 

Israel's First Proxy Victory

 The Armenians in Azerbaijan surrendered and thus, that war ended with our ally's victory. Russia's friend lost. We supplied Azerbaijan with weapons paid with oil, and with the use of its 3 or 4 air bases left by the Soviets. Thus, in a very modest scale, we are proving that our friendship is worth a lot. Good.

Pic.

Xi's Faction under attack

The secret detention of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu means that there is no job security in China's government. He had been promoted in May, together with other Xi loyalists. Former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who was officially removed from his post in late July was another mandarin promoted under Xi. Their presumed sin is corruption, attending banquets and demanding sex and money from underlings. Since that kind of behavior is rather expected from officials, I assume that Xi is under attack. 

In the center of the pic, Gen. Zhang Yang who committed suicide a few years ago amid an investigation into his ties with two disgraced military figures. Zhang, 66, a former head of the powerful Central Military Commission's (CMC) political work department, "hanged himself at his home in Beijing. 

A good day in TASE

If I needed another demonstration, today's TASE shows that financial speculation yields more than backbreaking work. The web page today shows a paper profit equal to one year's work as water engineer. I'm not selling and taking this profit, but it proves the correctness of my strategy. My dear wife cares for my lifestyle like did for her mother, prolonging my life like her years, gifting me ten years more than I would last if the actuarial tables were predictive and relevant.  
 

Gifted in Israel

  

My second granddaughter was classified in the school (2nd grade) as gifted, so naturally I wanted to learn what that means. The Central Bureau of Statistics has a long explanation (in Hebrew) how they are selected. There are two categories: the gifted (mehunanim) and outstanding (mitztaynim). The numbers are broken down by the economic-social grade of the school (that is, the neighborhood) - above: left=low, middle=middle and right=high. 

The ranking city is Tel Aviv with 8.39 (from 10) and my city is number 5 with 7.59.  According to the graph, in 2021 they found about 11,000 gifted children, 40% of them from the high-ranking cities. About 10% of the age group is selected. The proportions (gifted = brown line, outstanding=green line) grows from year to year, meaning, may be, that a larger portion of the children are gifted? The whole explanation is so obscure that it is impossible to make sense of it, which is the point. 

My granddaughter says she did not answer the numbers questions yet got selected. How come? I don't know, she certainly has no "protectzia". 

War is bad for the potash business

Nutrien, the world largest potash mining company, is projected to report earnings of $0.96 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 61.75%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $5.68 billion, down 30.6% from the year-ago period. Analysts advise "Sell today".

I have been collecting potash shares for the last twenty years and now am losing much money. The war in Ukraine, instead reducing the offer as I expected, incentivizes the massive dumping of the mineral at any price. In this case, war is no good for business. 

Yet, I am not selling. The world needs potash fertilizers.