Neomedialism is here (Rand Corp.)

 

The characteristic conditions of neomedievalism are already evident

• Politically, the centralized nation-state is in steep decline, spurring severe political crises in many countries.
• Economically, growth has slowed and become imbalanced, leading to the return of entrenched inequalities and the expansion of illicit economies.
• Nonstate threats, including pandemics, banditry, and ecological and natural disasters, could outpace rival militaries as security concerns.
• Preindustrial aspects of warfare have reemerged, including the prevalence of siege warfare, irregular and protracted conflict, the privatization of warfare, and the prominence of intrastate conflict.
• The realities of state weakness and societal fragmentation should become central considerations in all defense work

• Coping with domestic and transnational threats and deterrence of attacks that threaten political legitimacy should have a priority equal to or higher than deterrence of conventional military attack.
• The conservation of military resources and the avoidance of major war will become critical to national success.
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• The goal and logic of warfare could change accordingly

• As the pursuit of total victory over flashpoints, such as Taiwan, becomes infeasible, targeting the fragile political legitimacy of the rival could become more attractive as a direct way of gaining leverage in negotiations on proximate disputes.
• A perpetually tenuous level of popular support for the government will likely deepen the military's dependence on mercenaries, unmanned systems, and coalition partners for combat operations.