Commodities Alert!

 I have noticed a strange revival of the shares of ICL the local phosphate fertilizer company. I discovered that the tremendous rise in the demand of agricultural (and oil) commodities is behind it. The speculators are already discounting the yearlong corona crisis. I know what to do tomorrow on TASE.  

Military Lockdown

 The Israeli Army has closed its camps and the soldiers will receive no passes for the next month. It appears that the countrywide quarantine starting this afternoon with no definite end-time will be harsh. 

And boring. 

The Taking of the Capitol

 

Washington is, in many ways, the world's capital. Therefore it would be stupid to underestimate the significance of the opposition to the Democratic (Black) victory. AngloSaxon societies are very stable, and I don't expect America's descent into Venezuela style chaos. I'd even say that for such a large protest, this was a very peaceful. They broke nothing, stole nothing, burnt nothing. Probably because there were relatively few young men.  

Why the Sheqel is so Strong

 

The Sheqel has appreciated vis-a-vis the US$ 10% in the last month and it buys third of a dollar. Why the currency of this mini-country in the Middle Shithole is so sought after? Maybe Israel's success in dealing with the corona-virus has impressed the world? Or is the start-up people, who sold 10 billion dollars worth of trash shares on the Nasdaq are bringing home the spoils? May be American Jews - pondering Biden's leanings - are moving capital to Israel? May be a Viking treasure hoard (pic) was discovered under my garden? I'd have fancied that but, no, it was not the case. 

The Chinese beating the world

Huawei, the giant Chinese processor company, is already selling the 5 nanometer KIRIN9000processor for Android devices. Soon it was followed by Samsung Exynos 1080 and the Qualcomm Snapdragon 888.  The next-gen Kirin processor should arrive as the Kirin 9010 and it will be a 3nm chipset.  This means that the competition is accelerating like crazy and soon the standard will be 3 nm. The issue is that no other chipmaker is able even to approach the 3 nm standard. Intel fell badly behind and that means that Israel's largest exporter will not be able to compete with Made-in-China. Chinese domination of the chip making business will necessarily destroy American (and Israeli) highly paid jobs. I do not know how to fabricate 3 nm chips, so the process seems unstoppable.  The roadmap (pic) already is predicting 2 nm chips. Soon. After that quantum effects take over and the thingie is unmanageable.  Transistor density is not all, performance is all, and in that parameter, INTEL is still competing. It is complicated. 

No retirement in view

I had set a date to retire finally from working as freelance planning engineer and that date is two days from now. But clients are pressuring me to take new projects, money no problem. If I do not work, what shall I do? Tai-chi in the park? My wife is busy tending her hundred years old mother, and my over-worked daughters. but me?  I wonder.  Nice anecdote: I remember seeing older guys getting on the bus to go home from the San Francisco financial district…thousand yard stares, rumpled suits, briefcases.  I thought they looked ancient.  They were probably 50.  I remember listening to this new band on my Sony Walkman on the bus.  One of those ancient guys asked me what I was listening to.  I told him, it was the Police.  He laughed and asked me if I liked the Firemen and the Garbagemen to.  I didn’t think he was funny, nor would have Gordon Sumner, aka Sting.

Disarmament

 I am reading Winston Churchill's book of WWII. The winners of WWI were convinced that universal disarmament would make impossible a new mechanized war. Shalom Achshav "Peace Now" (peace at all cost) Israeli utopist movement did not learn a thing. Churchill writes that the Oxford students club resolution that they refuse to fight for King and Country convinced the Duce and the Fuhrer that England will not resist.   

"...widespread western devotion to disarmament and dedication to peace were two of several reasons why democratic statesmen could not respond decisively to Hitler's threat. 

... Allied failure to bring defeat home to the German people in 1918-19 generated a resentment which contributed to interwar instability and Hitler's rise."