Tuesday, May 24, 2022
Monday, May 23, 2022
Sweating the Regulation
The permitting process in Israel has evolved and a monstrous industry of compliance with regulation has appeared. I am part of this industry and can attest that it has grown increasingly difficult to transit through. The preparation of the submittal for a small, rural coffee shop took me six months, with successive rejects and refinements. Even today it is not complete, the Ministry of Health demands proof of origin of the water, and the Client has not sent me yet a water bill. I am losing interest in this odious line of work.
This book examines a range of different British regulatory bodies, including the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority, the Food Standards Agency, the Environment Agency, the Health and Safety Executive, the regulators for health and social care, and the regulators covering communications, energy, rail, and water.
Thursday, May 19, 2022
Intrepid Potash
Intrepid Potash averaged $703 per ton for potash sales in the first quarter, more than double the $284 per ton it averaged on sales a year ago. Intrepid Potash shares have added about 79.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's decline of -13.3%. I think this year it will achieve 1200 US$/ton.
I know what I have to do.
Pic.: The Moab evaporation ponds.
Wednesday, May 18, 2022
The first step is the most difficult
Another day. I have urgent work to do. It is 11 AM and still could not force myself to sit and concentrate and start working.
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Wasting time
Ohne Fleiß kein Preis
Studying Falkenstein
For years, my fav blogger was Eric Falkenstein, from Minneapolis, but lately, he stopped writing. One paragraph about the art of investment, not that I understand him fully:
While I agree with most people that many investors are ignorant and susceptible to biases, these suboptimal decision-makers are a poor explanation for equilibrium asset prices; their bad decision-making is mainly evinced by excessive trading. It doesn't take many smart traders to figure out that if they steel themselves against those risky-stock promoters they can make large risk-adjusted returns. It's not complicated, you don't have to tie yourself against a mast like Odysseus, just don't listen to conference calls or watch CNBC, and instead just crunch datasets where all you know about ABC corp are its objective metrics. Then buy the wallflower stocks and sell the crazy/hot ones. Arbitrageurs should counteract behavior biases in asset markets with free entry.
He thinks that the investor's main motivator is envy and not greed.
Sunday, May 15, 2022
TASE Volatility
After I finished helping my daughter to buy the apartment of her dream, I stopped following the bourse. Now I am lightly interested and amazed by the volatility. The shares I used to follow now lose 10% a day and then rise 10% the next. I never saw such volatility. The meaning is that the bourse community is uncertain and fearful: they do not know what to do. I think I may restart speculating again, this time without a goal, just because it is interesting and I am disgusted with the בודקי תוכניות (this is a new profession. The authorities have hired failed, misanthrope engineers to criticize the projects submitted for approval. These are bad people that enjoy rejecting projects. Now it takes three to five years on average to get a היתר בנייה aka building permit. Via Dolorosa.)