The Recession has ended

 

American leaders have arrived at the same conclusion as mine: It is necessary to have a good war to end the recession. America is sending billions worth of weapons to Ukraine, which dutifully destroys them in a few days. The West has full employment and the economy is accelerating. NASDAQ is rising. 

Good Days are ahead.

Neomedialism is here (Rand Corp.)

 

The characteristic conditions of neomedievalism are already evident

• Politically, the centralized nation-state is in steep decline, spurring severe political crises in many countries.
• Economically, growth has slowed and become imbalanced, leading to the return of entrenched inequalities and the expansion of illicit economies.
• Nonstate threats, including pandemics, banditry, and ecological and natural disasters, could outpace rival militaries as security concerns.
• Preindustrial aspects of warfare have reemerged, including the prevalence of siege warfare, irregular and protracted conflict, the privatization of warfare, and the prominence of intrastate conflict.
• The realities of state weakness and societal fragmentation should become central considerations in all defense work

• Coping with domestic and transnational threats and deterrence of attacks that threaten political legitimacy should have a priority equal to or higher than deterrence of conventional military attack.
• The conservation of military resources and the avoidance of major war will become critical to national success.
• 
  
• The goal and logic of warfare could change accordingly

• As the pursuit of total victory over flashpoints, such as Taiwan, becomes infeasible, targeting the fragile political legitimacy of the rival could become more attractive as a direct way of gaining leverage in negotiations on proximate disputes.
• A perpetually tenuous level of popular support for the government will likely deepen the military's dependence on mercenaries, unmanned systems, and coalition partners for combat operations.

Potash at 307 US$/ton

 CANPOTEX (the sales arm of Canadian miners) has reached an agreement with China’s potash buying committee for standard grade potash shipments through to December 31, 2023, at a price of US$307/MT on a CFR basis.

 Alarmist emails (see left from Yoav) cried that ICL was sinking by 9% but I cannot find that data. ICL is rising. Confusing. 

Yesterday I asked Chat AI about potash outlook. Said it know nothing but it looked poor. 

P.S. For some contrarian reason, ICL ended at 1 or 2% higher today. 

My Granddaughter Noya passed the test of מחוננת (talented) and is going to be translated to a special school. She is 7. At the same age, I was selected in Budapest and transferred to the elite school Gorkiy with a Russian teacher. I commented to my wifey: "You were not selected in Kiev" and she said - with contempt - "... and what did you get out of it?" 

Saboteurs of the GNP

The City Engineer of Modi'in said in an interview on HaAretz that his town is low-density and is not giving more building permits. No one I know of said it so succinctly. This policy may have been the real reason for my hitting a wall in Ramat Gan. Simply, they are against development. They are used to the current situation, they do not want to be bigger or richer or cosmopolitan. Having grown up in a Socialist regime based on Marx's Capital, where the State proclaimed its achievements in steel production growth, fantastic agricultural yields, and more houses built for the workers, I cannot yet believe that somebody is against the GNP.

But they are.

What is happening?

I watched an Australian podcast about what really is happening in China. Since official statistics are untrue because local mandarins systematically send fake reports to the central government (something traditional in the imperial times), it is necessary to search for special data to learn what is happening. Someone searched the internet for any public data on salt consumption in China. Chinese consume about 11 grams per day, way above the WHO guidelines. It appears that calculating the population numbers based on table salt sales, China has about 900 - 1000 million inhabitants. Pompeo also mentioned that figure. About 250 million "disappeared" during the COVID epidemy (Vehicles waiting near a crematory - satellite image). They had no vaccines and to hide mass deaths, they closed down public transport and forbade people to go out to the streets. 

Per contra, it was published that in Israel no healthy adult died, only already sick elderly people. I got the virus but was vaccinated and did not feel a thing. Israel is the best country in the world. 

 

Recession

My favorite shares have collapsed: ZIM, the Israel Company, ICI the Potash business. I just got a phone call from the Bank that they had retired their recommendation on NVidia. Dalio says it is cyclical and will rise again. I shall wait out the recession. Musk and the economic papers say that America does have not enough PhDs in the computing fields. It cannot compete with China. I should not worry about them. 

A Good War would re-stimulate the economy. 

Another one bites the dust

 

After eight months of work on this Ramat Gan project, I received the permit. In my name. I feel that a heavy weight was lifted from my ancient back. Tomorrow I shall submit the bill.

Another one bites the dust

Another one bites the dust

And another one gone and another one gone

Another one bites the dust

Hey I'm gonna get you too

Another one bites the dust