War is bad for the potash business

Nutrien, the world largest potash mining company, is projected to report earnings of $0.96 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 61.75%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $5.68 billion, down 30.6% from the year-ago period. Analysts advise "Sell today".

I have been collecting potash shares for the last twenty years and now am losing much money. The war in Ukraine, instead reducing the offer as I expected, incentivizes the massive dumping of the mineral at any price. In this case, war is no good for business. 

Yet, I am not selling. The world needs potash fertilizers. 

My impression of yesterday's debate

Yesterday, the Supreme Court of Justice of Israel held an open, televised debate of the recent modification of a Basic Law (part of a future Constitution). My impression is that the judges know that they cannot repeal the legally approved legislation, however horrible it may be in their view. 

The opponents voiced fears of the eventual long-term consequences, but the judges said that they cannot deal with eventualities, they judge only facts. 

The most ridiculous of the speakers was "Adam, Teva, etc." environmental organization, which said the new law will make impossible the elimination of micro-elements from drinking water. 

The most serious was the military exposition that European countries are looking for a case to invalidate Israel's system of justice, so they can start jailing Israelis for war crimes. They are not doing that because the Israeli system is so severe and defends so effectively Palestinian terrorists. Should happen that a soldier inadvertently kills one and is not immediately jailed, the Europeans will declare it a war crime and start taking measures against Israel. They hate us that much. And more.

India-Europe Trade Corridor

 
US President Joe Biden’s announcement over the weekend at the G20 meeting of an India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), with India to be linked to the Middle East and Europe through rail, shipping lines, pipes, and cables, conceives Israel as the hub of the regional trade. The corridor would be an alternative to the Suez Canal. Something like Singapore in the Far East. Fantastic.

I looked up what merchandises could be traded on this new corridor. India is big and populous but sells and buys very little. I could not find one product in my professional area where Indian products were used, Indian pumps are of low quality and antiquated. This is a paradox since India just put a vehicle on the moon while the Russians failed. It has technology and excellent Iyer Brahmin minds. In time it may develop. 

More Food for Vultures

 Argentina keeps providing more food for the vultures. They keep doing mistakes and owing more and more. The fools expropriated 51% of YPF in 2012 after accusing the majority shareholder, Spanish company Repsol SA, of failing to invest sufficient resources into oil production. At the time, Argentina was already fighting claims by investors led by Paul Singer’s Elliott Management over its 2001 default on $95 billion in sovereign debt, and the YPF takeover further contributed to a perception of the country as an inhospitable place for foreign investment.

Judge Preska found that the by-laws of the company, which had been privatized in the 1990s, required any future re-nationalization to be accompanied by a tender offer at a predetermined price. But when an expropriation came in 2012, Deputy Economy Minister Axel Kicillof called the requirement a “bear trap” that only “fools” would expect Argentina and YPF to honor, according to a court filing.

My next jobs will fall from the sky

 

Tel Aviv 1992.I was manager of the Herzliya WWTP and the Municipality wanted to use "my" pumps to dry off the "Bassa". And the Insurance accused the WWTP of flooding with wastewater some construction site.  This winter appears to be especially rainy, so I think I shall have lots of order in drainage.

 Get ready!

War of Religion in Israel

Evey weekend thousands demonstrate in the streets of Israel. It is a pacific civil protest, with many national flags and big antigovernment posters. There have no social demands, like better salaries, nor foreign policy changes, or destruction of the settlements on the West Bank. Their issue is against nationalism and religion. Apparently, they are fighting for democracy in the abstract, since they פhave no concrete demands. The big difference is religion: all the protesters are secular, they are against religious impositions like separation of male and females in public spaces, against patriarchy and for sexual freedom. And most they hate that full time religious students don't serve in the army. On the other side, we have a government democratically elected. It is rather conservative, and family orientated - so in my opinion, the dividing issue is the belief in God. It is secular (unbelievers) vs religious (Jewish). Secularization has won all over the West and the East, here we are the last remnant. It is only in Israel that the seriously religious are part of the governing coalition and fighting for the survival of Judaism. 

God always wins.

Escapism in America

 Since I know myself, always admired America. The first thing I did after graduation was to take a long coast-to-coast trip on a 3-month Greyhound pass. To my surprise, the real thing did not measure up to my expectations. I was disappointed with the food - the gelatinous pies, the over-fried chickens, the dirty bus station restaurants. Without a doubt, I returned to Argentina and took a job. But this graph shows something different - today, Americans are smoking marijuana by the ton and are stoned on the road and on the job. They are hooked on drugs. I can compare them to Yemenites with their khat. What good can come out of this? How will they compete against the ferociously money hungry, work obsessed Chinese?