Friday, November 1, 2019

Sailer cracked the Depopulation Enigma a Decade Ago

In occasion of an American election a decade ago, blogger-market researcher Steven Sailer discovered a link between "red" and "blue" States in the parameter of family formation (easy vs difficult). Bloggers, mostly, disregarded this discovery, but I always thought it was very subtle and astute. Now appears another peculiar economic study that links the tendency of young men (in America) to enter the workforce and their prospect to form a family. I never heard of Ariel J Binder but he must be quite smart to notice this correspondence.

Binder argues that changes in the labor market have interacted with changes in another market that values male employment—the marriage market—and that such interaction provides a more complete explanation of the data. ...Noncollege men experienced a tremendous decline in marriage propensities at the same time that they withdrew from the workforce....  

In addition to reducing marriage formation, this paper argues that these changes reduced the value a stably-employed noncollege man could extract from the marriage market. As a consequence, such men stood to gain less in 2015 from investing time in employment than they did in 1965.
If I understand the last paragraph, he is implying that young people accepts employment (becoming a regular working bloke) for the trade-off of having a steady woman in the bed and the kitchen. The mirror of this verity is that women do not consent going steady with a man without a regular employment. What has changed between 1965 and today that caused men to drop out? Binder says that the social and economic position of women has improved so radically that also their expectations/demands from a potential marriage candidate have increased to the point of disheartening the men.

I could add, to the point of depressing generations and causing an epidemy of addiction and suicide. And the dramatic fall in birth rates.

The solution to Western existential survival is knocking down women from their exalted, legally untouchable, economically privileged perch. To end with an Israeli note: females should pray in a segregated area in the synagogue and the Kotel (pic from the wiki). The coming elections will decide if that separation curtain will fall or erected higher. 

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