Sunni Disarray

Before Bush Sr.'s invasion of Iraq, no one imagined that the ancient Sunni vs Shi'ite religious fracture of the Muslim world had any relevance today. Bush unleashed a chain of development where now there is actual hot war between two well-defined blocks: The Sunni, lead and financed by the Saudi ruling clan, and the Shi'ite, directed from Tehran.

The Sunni rebellion in NorthEast Syria and NorthWest Iraq developed into an independent state, the Islamic State, which imposed rough uncooked Sharia and metastasized into many provinces. It is now beaten and no more. Lebanon, the Christian enclave, has changed into a ferocious Shi'ite entity. It was assumed that Syria, ruled for two generation by the Assad family, was secular and socialist, but it emerged that it was a Sunni country ruled by a Alawi minority. The Alawi never defined to which sect they felt closest. In fact, it was doubtful if they were Muslims at all. With the hardening of positions, the Alawi are now clearly aligned with the Shi'ia.

The same process has turned secular/socialist (Ba'ath) Iraq into a Shi'ia dominated nation, aligned with Iran. And then we have Yemen, which appeared to be homogeneous and Sunni, where the unheard of Huthi rebelled and are turning into Shi'ite allied with Iran.

Iran is developing nuclear weapons and powerful missiles and has declared that they are directed to Israel. The logical strategy for Israel is to seek allies in the Sunni camp. Unfortunately, the Sunni champion - Saudia - is undergoing a violent purge and it may end paralyzed or much weakened. Our neighbors, Egypt and Jordan, and Sunni dictatorships, but they may be hiding pro-Iran dissidents we never thought of.

We can only hope that this internal Muslim struggle never ends and both sides lose. Pic.: Explorer Bertram in the Empty Quarter, Arabia, 1930.