Turnaround time

In addition of the non-existence of herd immunity vis-a-vis COVID-19, President Trump's accusation that the WHO was misguiding the world by advising end of lockdowns, and the palpable failure of Singapore and its return to strict lockdown, is desinflating my natural optimism. We may write down this year 2020 as lost, certainly from the economic point of view.

I expect:

- breakdown of global supply chains and re-organizaton of world commerce, including stop of globalization, just-in-time inventories, and complex supply and finance chains
- sovereign debt downgrades as countries cannot export enough to pay their foreign obligations
- huge and unsustainable increases in public sector debt, including via unprecedented commitments to private sector debt obligations, specifically in the USA

So, why should it be that global equities are within 10-15% of their 2020 highs? 

I have to reverse direction and start selling instead of buying stock.

P.S.: On the other hand, why should a bad flu cause such a universal quilombo? (Balagan, in modern Hebrew)

PSS: China is agressively testing America's resolve to defend Taiwan. Coming a testing time for America. Its alliances will be tested on the field. Bad, bad.