Tuesday, April 14, 2020

No Herd Immunity in sight

The Koreans discovered that people "cured" of the flu disease, can be re-infected by the virus. This is very bad, it means that only total erradication of the virus a-la-Wuhan can lead to renormalization of economic life. I wonder if NASDAQ will crash tomorrow.

The idea of herd immunity is that as more people get infected, that is, once a large proportion of the population gets infected (more than 50 percent), then this would protect the rest from infection.

While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his advisers sparked an uproar when they bluntly proposed this approach - and later, at least formally, backtracked - this is actually something approved by politicians and public health experts in Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway as well. This is considered a cruel, eugenic policy. However, it appears that it would not work. 

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